Fantasy Insider: Fantasy golf advice, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Because cuts made are most valuable in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and since the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am won’t occur until the conclusion of 54 holes, zeroing in on how to approach the tournament could drift into paralysis by analysis. However, because the worst-case scenario is that all six of your golfers miss the cut and you’re the one absorbing zeroes come Sunday, a proper review is important. Even when it cooperates, weather plays a role in every tournament, but because of this week’s multiple-course format, its impact is augmented. As a result, comping what’s expected is key. Last year’s edition was played in glorious conditions, albeit with some wind. This year, it should align more with what was experienced in 2017 when rain poured and wind howled. There were multiple suspensions of play during the first two days before an uneventful weekend set the stage for Jordan Spieth’s four-stroke victory. Conveniently, as it has for every odd-numbered year since 2011, the rotation of courses two years ago also matches this week’s schedule. As you digest the complexity of the situation, note the scoring averages by round for each of the three courses in 2017. Each round is ranked from easiest to hardest. R1 +1.31 = Spyglass Hill +1.47 = MPCC +2.21 = Pebble Beach R2 -1.47 = Spyglass Hill -1.06 = MPCC +0.19 = Pebble Beach R3 -1.18 = Pebble Beach +0.37 = MPCC +0.76 = Spyglass Hill At first glance, we’re given a bit of everything. MPCC, the only par 71, wasn’t the easiest or the hardest in any round, while the other two courses – both par 72s – swapped spots on the edges. Sink one layer into it and be aware that the majority of the marquee names in the field rotate to Pebble Beach for Saturday’s television coverage. (It’s no different than when the same quality of talent plays PGA WEST’s Stadium Course in the third round of the Desert Classic.) As noted in bold, Spieth (third-round 65, won), Dustin Johnson (66, third), Brandt Snedeker (67, fourth), Jason Day (75, T5), Gary Woodland (67, T5) and Kevin Kisner (71, T10) were among the 52 who opened at MPCC and played Pebble in the third round. Save Day’s reversal of fortune, the theory that the best golfers score the lowest was supported in this tournament two years ago. Now add the weather’s influence on that scoring. The second round didn’t conclude until mid-afternoon on the Saturday of tournament week, but its entirety essentially was contested in inclement conditions. Most of the third round was played on a pleasant Sunday. Two takeaways: • When the weather is nasty, Pebble is more difficult than Spy. When the weather is nice, Pebble can be a pushover. Despite the tilt of the talent for the third round in 2017, that angle is supported over time. • Using six of your 12 starts during the first three rounds for golfers on MPCC is preferable, but not at the cost of risking missed cuts leaving fewer than four for the finale. Remember that only the low 60 and ties play the final round at Pebble. Boiling it all down, the question is who to start where and when. Thursday’s opening round is forecast to be played under docile conditions, easily the best of the week. Therefore, consider two on Pebble to accompany two on MPCC. When the weather turns on Friday, assuming they play, keep everybody in place. The two who started on Pebble will take their turn on MPCC, while the guys who started on MPCC will tackle Spy. Watch the weather to determine the best ploy for the third round when the wind is expected to be sustained at 10-15 mph. Spy might be favorable over Pebble. My original lineup for Expert Picks (linked below) included Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth, but I swapped them out for Rafa Cabrera Bello and Shane Lowry. Both Europeans open on Spy and ensure that I’ll be able to rotate two to MPCC in every round. Of course, and as always advised via Rule No. 3 of fantasy golf – remain fluid – if I’m compelled to pivot for whatever reason, my strategy going into the tournament also will accommodate the possibilities. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (in alphabetical order): Rafa Cabrera Bello Paul Casey Jason Day Dustin Johnson Shane Lowry Brandt Snedeker You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Patrick Cantlay; Matt Every; Tony Finau; Adam Hadwin; Matt Kuchar; Phil Mickelson; Scott Piercy; Chez Reavie; Adam Scott; Jordan Spieth Driving: n/a Power Rankings Wild Card Adam Scott … Small greens hide relatively poor putters. They also reveal terrific ball-strikers. Enter the Aussie who can identify with both labels, although he stroked it well on the Poa annua greens in his debut at Torrey Pines en route to a runner-up finish. Toss in potentially dastardly conditions this week that should cement him as a contender upon approach and he presents surprisingly well in his third appearance. Draws Patrick Reed … He’s not anywhere near as solid as Scott tee-to-green, but Reed’s short game is in a class of its own. In a vacuum, it should matter, and it has on numerous occasions here. From 2013-2017, he recorded two top 10s and another two top 25s among five paydays at Pebble Beach. He’s making the trip from Saudi Arabia, so respect the jet lag in the first round, but his overall form remains consistently strong enough to warrant generous interest. Jimmy Walker … It’s been a frustrating few months, so the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am rolls around at a great time. Sure, the same could have been said about the Sony Open in Hawaii (T51) and Farmers Insurance Open (MC), and his recent play elicits concern, but he’s not only made the cut in each of the last eight editions of the tournament, he’s won once (2014) and finished inside the top 11 on another five occasions. With that experience that includes the patience on how to navigate all three courses in all conditions and a 54-hole cut this week, he’s a form-contrarian’s delight. Tony Finau … Dismiss the short week at TPC Scottsdale. For whatever reason, it has his number, and it might be the only track he’s yet to tame. The positive spin is that he was treated to an extra couple of days of rest. In his only prior appearance on the Monterey Peninsula, he posted a T23 in 2017. With par 5s plentiful all week, he projects to begin a new consecutive cuts made streak. Lucas Glover Adam Hadwin Scott Piercy Fades Ted Potter, Jr. … Epitomizes the profile of what’s possible every week, even at Pebble Beach. Amid the Phil Mickelsons, Dustin Johnsons, Brandt Snedekers and Jordan Spieths of the world, guys like the defending champion, D.A. Points (2011) and Vaughn Taylor (2016) prove that the lesser-known talent has game, too. Alas, gamers can’t rely on lightning to strike twice in the same place. Limit TPJ to full-season rosters on which his busy schedule and propensity to get hot carries the most value. Pat Perez … Among the bevy of professionals who you’d want to mic during every pro-am and his massive success in this tournament explain why he’s been a mainstay for every edition but one since 2002. Overall, he’s 14-for-16 with a three top 10s and another three top 25s. However, a thumb injury sidelined him during the Desert Classic, which was sandwiched in between missed cuts at Waialae and Torrey Pines. Give him time to reconnect. Kevin Kisner … For as much as he’s a great fit for short courses and the wind, he’s only 3-for-6 with one top-35 finish (T10, 2017) in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Yet, he’s the kind of grinder you don’t mind if you’re fishing fractionally in DFS. The only problem is his price tag in this field. Charley Hoffman … It sure was nice to see him hang on for a T20 at TPC Scottsdale even though he added two strokes in every round to finish at 8-under 66-68-70-72=276. However, since the current trio of tracks was introduced in 2010, he’s just 2-for-6 with a pair of T35s (2010, 2012) and only four red numbers in his last 16 completed rounds. Kevin Streelman … Leave him to the course-history buffs who are salivating over his T17-T14-sixth run here since 2016. His form hasn’t been the same since turning 40 in early November, so he presents as a trap not unlike Brendan Steele at last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open (where Steele missed the cut despite a terrific track record). Streelman obviously loves the pro-am format, so perhaps this is exactly what he needs to steady the ship, but you don’t have to go along for the cruise. Martin Laird … He was this close to a bounty of FedExCup points at TPC Scottsdale where he’s been a commodity for years a few miles from home. A final-round 74 bumped him into a seven-way T26. This marks his fifth trip to Pebble Beach but just his second in the last seven years. He’s yet to record a top-65 finish. Beau Hossler … He co-led after each of the first two rounds last year, and then plummeted to finish T43. Certainly, that experience is invaluable but 20somethings by rule don’t contend (unless it’s Jordan Spieth in 2017). Moreover, Hossler has scuffled of late, so despite the cachet, continue to keep him on the shelf. He’ll come around and reward our patience. Cameron Champ Austin Cook Si Woo Kim Ryan Palmer Andrew Putnam Vaughn Taylor Returning to Competition none Notable WDs Kevin Na … Returned from a fractured pinky to finish T60 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. From 2008-2018, he’s missed only one edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2017), and he’s already exempt into the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach this year, so it’s possible that he needs more time for recovery. No question the rough is more challenging this week than last, too. Kyle Stanley … Like Na, Stanley also already knows that he’s headed back to Pebble Beach in June for the U.S. Open, but his advance scouting will have to wait. In five prior tries in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he hadn’t finished better than T41 in his last visit in 2016. Sits 85th in the FedExCup standings with three top 25s. Jason Kokrak … Having emerged as he occasionally does as the focus of converging trends, he earned an easy endorsement as one of my Sleepers, but that went by the boards shortly after the weekly staple published on Tuesday. Peter Uihlein … This isn’t a surprise after he withdrew during the second round of last week’s stop in Arizona with an unspecified injury. After walking off the fall with four progressively better finishes capped by a T7 on Sea Island, he’s opened the 2019 portion 0-for-3 and sits 93rd in the FedExCup. Chris Kirk … His struggles continue. Zero top 40s among only four cuts made in nine starts this season. Currently 172nd in the FedExCup. Charl Schwartzel … Only one cut made in four starts this season – a T70 at THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES. Robert Streb … Back in the days before the wraparound season, it was rare for any golfer in the graduate reshuffle category to choose to sit out any tournament on the West Coast Swing. Now that we’re six seasons into the norm, it happens. He sits atop his category with two events remaining in the second phase of the reorder schedule, and he wouldn’t budge if it occurred right now. At 61st in the FedExCup standings, the 31-year-old has built a cushion to manage his schedule as he sees fit. Carlos Ortiz … His tournament debut remains on ice. Currently 86th in the FedExCup thanks in large part to a T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October. Also sixth in the reshuffle category and at risk of losing only one position at the moment. Vijay Singh … This marks the end of an impressive streak for this will be the first time since his first appearance in the tournament in 1994 that he hasn’t competed. It would have been his 25th consecutive trip. He’s a former champion (2004) and three-time runner-up. Also not playing the Oasis Championship on the PGA TOUR Champions. The Big Fijian will turn 56 years of age on Feb. 22. Bill Haas … It’s not often that a guy withdraws early from a tournament into which he’d have gained entry on merit the week after competing in a tournament in which he gained entry via a sponsor exemption. He managed but a pair of 76s at TPC Scottsdale and missed the cut by 11 strokes. Despite conditional status, he’s 108th in the FedExCup standings and shouldn’t have much trouble climbing into fields via sponsor exemption when necessary. Morgan Hoffmann … He’s 1-for-2 since returning to the PGA TOUR. Has 16 starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension, so don’t sweat the target to retain status (294.270 FedExCup points) as he’s, in effect, chasing the Playoffs at the same time. Power Rankings Recap – Waste Management Phoenix Open Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Hideki Matsuyama  T15 2  Jon Rahm  T10 3  Matt Kuchar  T4 4  Webb Simpson  T20 5  Phil Mickelson  MC 6  Gary Woodland  T7 7  Xander Schauffele  T10 8  Justin Thomas  3rd 9  Rickie Fowler  Win 10  Tony Finau  MC 11  Byeong Hun An  T20 12  Chez Reavie  T4 13  Cameron Smith  T15 14  Martin Laird  T26 15  Adam Hadwin  T44 Wild Card  Lucas Glover  MC Sleepers Recap – Waste Management Phoenix Open Golfer  Result Ted Potter, Jr.  MC Sam Ryder  T60 Brian Stuard  T55 Vaughn Taylor  MC Matthew Wolff  T50 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR February 5 … Kevin Stadler (39) February 6 … Tim Herron (49); Ricky Barnes (38) February 7 … none February 8 … none February 9 … none February 10 … none February 11 … none

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