Fantasy Golf: Sleeper picks for the Valspar Championship

THE OVERVIEW No doubt some players actually enjoy playing the Bear Trap at PGA National’s Champion course. Defending Honda Classic champion Rickie Fowler even calls it fun. “It’s always a good stretch of golf holes,â€� he said. But most players would probably fall in the same camp as two-time Honda Classic champ Padraig Harrington. “I fear those holes,â€� he said. “There’s no doubt about that.â€� With good reason, of course, Hole Nos. 15, 16 and 17 are annually ranked among the toughest three-hole stretches on the PGA TOUR. In fact, in the last 10 years, those three holes have played to a cumulative stroke average of 0.644 above par, making it the fourth-hardest three-hole stretch of any non-major course on TOUR. (In case you were wondering about the most difficult, it’s holes 8, 9 and 10 at Pebble Beach.) It’s not that the Bear Trap is impossible to score on. A year ago, Fowler essentially sealed the deal on his four-shot victory by hitting his tee shot at the par-3 15th to 3 feet in the final round. The day before, he birdied the par-4 16th. And in the second round, he birdied both the 15th and 17th (another par 3). “Birdies happen in the Bear Trap,â€� Fowler said, “but other numbers do, as well.â€� Ask Jimmy Walker, who was looking to make a move late in the final round until his tee shots at 15 and 17 each found the water; it eventually cost him five strokes. Gary Woodland, meanwhile, was on his way to a solo second until his 3-putt at 17 (followed by a bogey at 18) dropped him into a tie. When you play the Bear Trap, you can probably expect to hit one ball in the water. Since 2007, 481 players have played at least one competitive round at PGA National – and 367 of them have hit at least one ball in the water. That’s a rate of 76 percent. Of those 114 players who have stayed dry, just 10 have played eight or more rounds at PGA National. Somehow, 2013 Honda Classic champ Michael Thompson has stayed dry the most, having played it 20 times without a water ball. So what the strategy for playing the Bear Trap? “First goal is not to hit in the water,â€� Harrington said. “Second goal is not to hit it in the bunkers. And then hopefully, you hit on the green between them. “But strategy, you’re just trying to hit the right shot at the right time. You’re trying to get as much information wind-wise. You’re preparing for those holes definitely in advance. When you’re standing on the 14th, you’re watching the players in front of you play 15. Have they gone long? Have they come up short? You’re getting an impression of those holes, very similar to the 17th at [TPC] Sawgrass. You’re always watching the groups ahead of you trying to get a feel.â€� It’s working for Harrington, who is 6 under in the 24 times he’s played the 15th. That’s the best score of any player since 2007. As for the overall leaders of Bear Trap scoring – that would be Russell Knox and Adam Hadwin, who are each 6 under in their careers in that stretch since 2007. Knox has played 14 rounds; Hadwin has played it six times. So far, they’ve each yet to parlay their success on the Bear Trap into a Honda Classic win. But maybe one day. After all, the inscription on the plaque welcoming golfers to the Bear Trap says it all: It should be won or lost right here. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER Tiger Woods Good sign – he’s playing for the second consecutive week. Bad sign – he’s coming off a missed cut. Rickie Fowler Has played 22 worldwide events since his win here a year ago, with an impressive 15 top-15 finishes. Sergio Garcia Last year’s Masters champ is making his TOUR season debut this week. Next month he becomes a father. THE FLYOVER A look at the aforementioned Bear Trap – the 179-yard 15th, the 434-yard 16th and the 190-yard 17th. The Bear Trap accounts for 17 percent of all bogeys, 32 percent of all double bogeys and 35 percent of all triples or worse at the Champion Course. Since 2007, the field is a combined 2,973 over par on those three holes. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Wade Stettner: “Partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions are forecast on Thursday and Friday with east winds at 15-25 mph. Winds will subside a little this weekend as they shift more towards the southeast. A 20 percent chance of showers will remain in the forecast each day as there may be a few passing showers from time to time. Temperatures will be above normal this week with highs in the lower 80s each day.â€� For the latest weather news from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK We know how challenging it is. If it doesn’t rain, it’s going to be a really, really challenging week, so you have to be very, very patient, even more than any other week. You know, that’s something that it’s a good challenge. I enjoy those kind of things. BY THE NUMBERS 60.67 – Percentage of putts made by the field from 5-10 feet last year at The Honda Classic. That was the highest percentage of any tournament in the 2016-17 season. 8.11 – Percentage of putts made outside of 20 feet by the field last year. That was the second-highest percentage of any TOUR event (TPC Summerlin led with 8.26 percent). 13 over – Rory McIroy’s cumulative score on the Bear Trap. For the other 15 holes, he’s 4 under. McIlroy won The Honda Classic in 2012. SCATTERSHOTS Tiger Woods has 79 PGA TOUR wins – and 16 of those have come in the state of Florida. It’s the most of any state he’s played in. Woods hasn’t played The Honda Classic that often; this will be his fifth start in the event, and his first since a WD in 2014. His best finish was a tie for second in 2012. Adam Scott is still searching for his first round in the 60s this season. Thus far, he’s played 15 rounds in four events and has not yet recorded a round in the 60s. Only Charl Schwartzel (16) has more rounds this season without reaching the 60s. This will be the last week to qualify for next week’s World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship. Players not previously eligible can qualify by being inside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking or the top 10 in the FedExCup standings after this week.

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To date, the Detroit Lions have won the Super Bowl only in video games. However, as painful as that is to their dedicated fan base, Nate Lashley proved that video game-like performances can come to life in Detroit. What’s more, he won the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic as an afterthought prior to the tournament. Lions’ fans know all too well about getting overlooked. If you ever wanted an example of how a life can change on any given Sunday, Lashley is a good one. He was the last man in the field at Detroit Golf Club a year ago, and then went wire-to-wire en route to trouncing the field by six. For more on how Lashley manufactured his breakthrough victory, the composite host course and other details about the tournament, scroll past the projected contenders. RELATED: Featured Groups POWER RANKINGS: ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC Look for a review of defending champion Nate Lashley in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Kevin Kisner, Scottie Scheffler and other notables will be included. It was one of the feel-good stories of 2018-19, and unlike the local NFL representative, Lashley left no doubt that there would be a coronation in Motown. The 36-year-old was in just his second season on the PGA TOUR, and he was plowing forward with conditional status secured via a Minor Medical Extension with which he started the campaign. Then, paydirt. For the week, Lashley ranked fourth in greens in regulation (59 of 72) and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also took the second-fewest putts with just 106 while finishing third in Strokes Gained: Putting, third in converting GIR into par breakers, and third in scrambling (11 of 13). He won offensively and defensively, and it was special. Cheat-code kind of stuff. Detroit GC is a Donald Ross design entering its second century. The stock par 72 routed for the tournament surrendered a scoring average of 70.113 in its PGA TOUR debut. With no significant modifications to the course and with similarly benign weather forecast, the field of 156 should plan on flooring when the flag drops. Daytime highs in the 90s are expected throughout with only passing clouds at times. Winds will be light. The par-4 third hole plays as No. 1 on the South Course for members. All of the other holes are found on the North Course. Collectively, the composite course tips at 7,340 yards. The 635-yard par-5 fourth yielded “only” four eagles last year and ranked as the hardest of the par 5s at 4.743, but as is customary on most TOUR tracks, all of the par 5s were the easiest holes on the set of 18. As of midday Monday, 69 in this week’s field competed in the inaugural edition. Despite four-inch primary rough and bentgrass greens averaging only 5,150 square feet, they know to be on the attack. Last year’s field averaged 13.05 greens in regulation per round and knocked in a little over four par breakers on average on those chances alone. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Fantasy Insider * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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Seeking to regain his PGA Tour card, Vijay Singh is on the entry list for the Korn Ferry Challenge and that’s drawn the disdain of Brady Schnell, who called Singh “selfish” in a series of tweets.

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