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Fantasy golf advice, One & Done: Valero Texas Open

Since there isn’t a clear-cut favorite or a horse for the course who’s in blistering form entering the Valero Texas Open, the pressure is on front-runners to keep the opposition at bay. For those of you in this position, the concern is quieted if Billy Horschel is still on your board. The veteran of eight appearances hasn’t won the tournament, but he’s earned your better judgment with a pair of third-place finishes, one fourth and a T11 among six cuts made at difficult TPC San Antonio. The key word there is difficult. Only if you’re new to the PGA TOUR are you unaware how much the former FedExCup champion relishes a challenge. It feeds his confidence off the tee where he lets others make mistakes, but he’s even better with his irons. Oh, and he’s currently eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting. As a native of Florida, Horschel is most comfortable on bermudagrass putting surfaces, even if they’re overseeded, which is the case this week. The undulations are equalizers. His experience here could be the dagger. Among all of the non-winners at TPC San Antonio, he best fits the profile of what a champion embodies. If Horschel isn’t on his game, TPC San Antonio will get annoying and quickly. Its length demands driver, but if the big stick isn’t cooperating, it’ll take all of his patience to salvage a round. This is how Greg Norman intended it. The Shark was legendary tee to green, so it’s hardly a surprise that the course that he designed reflects what he did best. If you’re in pursuit and you’re going to assume that you’re going to get stymied by Horschel, you’re in terrific position. Lucas Glover, Jason Kokrak and Ryan Palmer are three strongmen who presents as threats. To select Glover is to invest almost entirely on his form throughout 2018-19. He missed the cut in his only prior trip to TPC San Antonio (in 2015), but two rounds of experience never hurts no matter the result. Kokrak fulfills the converging trends, if mildly. He’s never been more consistently strong over this most recent stretch of time, and he’s 5-for-7 at TPC San Antonio with a pair of top 15s, albeit it’s been four years since the latter. Palmer is an example of what happens when there isn’t synergy with the driver. He’s hung up five top-15s in this tournament, but he’s also finished outside the top 50 thrice, twice for a missed cut. That may seem academic and familiar for most veterans on any track, but we already know him to thrive or dive with the 1-metal. Whereas Horschel is the low risk-high reward, Palmer is the medium risk-medium reward. Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar and Jordan Spieth are wasteful in our format this week. Stick with reliable sites for each. How Spieth performs this week will seriously impact his probability at the Masters despite one of the best modern records at Augusta National. Watch him this week specifically with that in mind. No doubt there’s a contingent that’s been holding its breath for the VTO’s all-time earnings leader, Charley Hoffman, to break out of his funk in time for TPC San Antonio. Because he hasn’t, at least enough, slot him with the same mindset as Palmer. Because the course will beat up a few notables, two-man gamers are advised to reach a bit for your tandem this week. Consider Aaron Baddeley, D.J. Trahan and Sung Kang. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Byeong Hun An … Memorial (1) Daniel Berger … Travelers (1) Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (2) Rickie Fowler … Masters (2); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (10) Brian Harman … Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Masters (3) Charley Hoffman … Valero (3); Masters (4); Heritage (7); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) J.B. Holmes … Wells Fargo (5) Billy Horschel … Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Si Woo Kim … Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Matt Kuchar … Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Martin Laird … Valero (5); Reno-Tahoe (2) Ryan Moore … Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Ryan Palmer … Valero (2); Charles Schwab (4) Jordan Spieth … Masters (1); PGA Championship (7); Charles Schwab (5); Memorial (13); U.S. Open (4); Travelers (9); Open Championship (6); TOUR Championship (8) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Jimmy Walker … Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6)

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Alistair Docherty+2500
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Neal Shipley+2500
Rick Lamb+2500
S H Kim+2500
Trey Winstead+2500
Zecheng Dou+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
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Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Jeeno Thitikul+900
Nelly Korda+1000
Lydia Ko+1400
A Lim Kim+2000
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Lauren Coughlin+2500
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Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
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J.T. Poston / Keith Mitchell+1600
Thomas Detry / Robert MacIntyre+1800
Billy Horschel / Tom Hoge+2000
Aaron Rai / Sahith Theegala+2200
Nicolai Hojgaard / Rasmus Hojgaard+2200
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Nico Echavarria / Max Greyserman+2500
Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak+2800
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Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama+175
Tournament Match-Ups - J.T. Poston / K. Mitchell vs T. Detry / R. MacIntyre
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
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Thomas Detry / Robert MacIntyre+100
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Svensson / N. Norgaard vs R. Fox / G. Higgo
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Ryan Fox / Garrick Higgo-125
Jesper Svensson / Niklas Norgaard-105
Tournament Match-Ups - N. Hojgaard / R. Hojgaard vs N. Echavarria / M. Greyserman
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
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Nico Echavarria / Max Greyserman-110
Tournament Match-Ups - M. Fitzpatrick / A. Fitzpatrick vs S. Stevens / M. McGreevy
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Sam Stevens / Max McGreevy-120
Matt Fitzpatrick / Alex Fitzpatrick-110
Tournament Match-Ups - W. Clark / T. Moore vs B. Horschel / T. Hoge
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
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Wyndham Clark / Taylor Moore+100
Tournament Match-Ups - N. Taylor / A. Hadwin vs B. Garnett / S. Straka
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin-120
Brice Garnett / Sepp Straka-110
Tournament Match-Ups - A. Rai / S. Theegala vs B. Griffin / A. Novak
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Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak-110
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Highsmith / A. Tosti vs A. Smalley / J. Bramlett
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
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Alex Smalley / Joseph Bramlett+100
Tournament Match-Ups - A. Bhatia / C. Young vs M. Wallace / T. Olesen
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Akshay Bhatia / Carson Young-120
Matt Wallace / Thorbjorn Olesen-110
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Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Steven Alker+700
Stewart Cink+700
Padraig Harrington+800
Ernie Els+1000
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1200
Alex Cejka+2000
Bernhard Langer+2000
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Stephen Ames+2000
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Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
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Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Xander Schauffele+1400
Jon Rahm+1800
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Collin Morikawa+2000
Brooks Koepka+2500
Viktor Hovland+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
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Brooks Koepka+1800
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Xander Schauffele+1100
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Jon Rahm+1600
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Harman steals the spotlight at Wells FargoHarman steals the spotlight at Wells Fargo

WILMINGTON, N.C. – Notes and observations from Sunday’s final round of the Wells Fargo Championship at Eagle Point Golf Club, where Brian Harman made a 28-foot birdie putt at the last hole to get to 10 under and nip Dustin Johnson (67) and Pat Perez (68) by one. Rookie Jon Rahm (71) made a par 5 at the 18th hole and finished fourth alone at 8 under. For more coverage from Eagle Point, click here for the Daily Wrap-up. HARMAN OVERLOOKED NO MORE Attention was paid to Dustin Johnson, who was going for his fourth straight win; and Jon Rahm, the rookie sensation; and Ryder Cup hero Patrick Reed, the third-round leader; and the capital L Lefty, Phil Mickelson, who had never won in North Carolina. Not much attention was paid to little lefthander Brian Harman—until he gave everyone no choice. “Well, I would be lying if I didn’t say I had a little bit of a chip on my shoulder,” Harman said after he made a wild, nearly 30-foot birdie putt on the last hole to win by one. He screamed and connected on a high-five with his much-taller caddie Scott Tway as the crowd roared and the enormity of his putt hit home. Dustin Johnson and Pat Perez were out; Harman had won it. Harman is 5 feet, 7 inches tall, and his tee shots don’t exactly scrape the bottom of the sun. He is steady—he was 32nd in FedExCup standings, and moves to 9th—but other than his only other TOUR win at the 2014 John Deere Classic, he hadn’t often been spectacular. When he first saw Eagle Point a few weeks ago on a reconnaissance trip with Patton Kizzire, Harris English and Hudson Swafford, Harman wasn’t sure the place was for guys like him. “I actually thought like, man, this is a real bomber’s paradise—18 and a couple of the par 5s on the front,” Harman said. “Like if you can carry like, that magic number seems to be like 290, 300 yards, if you can carry it, kind of catches the downslope and runs down there a little bit.” Harman would have to be precise, limit his mistakes, and take advantage of his opportunities. He averaged 284.1 yards off the tee, which placed him a respectable 40th in that category, and hit fairways and greens. He putted better than average. (He was 17th in strokes gained: putting.) He hung around. He said his most important round may have come Friday, when in whipping winds he not only refused to shoot himself out of the tournament, he carded a 3-under 69. Although they hadn’t first planned to be here, Harman’s wife Kelly and their daughter Cooper Marie came up from their home in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Cooper Marie will walk soon, and Kelly said Brian has been on edge about potentially missing her first steps. As it turned out, it was Kelly and Cooper Marie who got to watch Brian take the biggest step. “It’s very hard to stay patient because you know what it feels like to win, you know what it takes,” Harman said after his raucous 172nd TOUR start. “You feel like you’re capable of it but it just doesn’t happen. And then it doesn’t happen again and it doesn’t happen again, and then that’s where the doubt starts to creep in. So this one feels very good.” WIN STREAK OVER FOR JOHNSON After making the cut on the number (1 over), Dustin Johnson did almost everything he needed to on the weekend to win his fourth tournament in four starts. Alas, his second straight 67 Sunday was not quite good enough, and he will not become the first player to win in four consecutive starts since Tiger Woods won five straight nine years ago. “I didn’t really know what to expect this week, because I didn’t really get to practice leading into this tournament,” Johnson said after making a 15-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to take the clubhouse lead. “So most of my practice I’ve done since I’ve been here.” Johnson was coming off a long layoff after falling down a flight of stairs and withdrawing from the Masters Tournament, but there was nothing wrong with his long game at Eagle Point. He led the field in average driving distance (307.3 yards) and strokes gained: approach the green. His short game was only average, though, as he ranked 63rd in strokes gained: around the green. “Physically, I’m really good,” Johnson said. “Everything’s 100 percent, feeling great. I can swing at it, no problems. Still got a lot of practice to do to get ready for next week [and THE PLAYERS Championship], but looking forward to it.” SHOT OF THE DAY PEREZ: T2 ‘A BONUS’ Pat Perez hadn’t competed since a T18 finish at the Masters, so he came to Eagle Point with few expectations. At the very least, he would knock the rust off for THE PLAYERS. He did a lot more than that. Perez bounced back from a double-bogey at the 14th hole with birdies on two of his last three to tie Johnson at 9 under par before Harman made his winning putt. At 40, Perez is in the midst of his finest season yet. His T2 at the Wells Fargo was his fifth top-10 finish in 15 starts, and moves him from seventh to fifth in the FedExCup points race. “Hell of an up-and-down from back there,” Perez said of Harman. “He deserves it, he played great. I made double on 14, that killed me, but to have a look at the end, I was really excited about it.” Needing to make birdie at the last to tie Johnson, Perez got almost to the green with his second shot. His chip rolled out to just over four feet from the cup, and he rolled in the putt. “I wasn’t really expecting too much this week,” Perez said. “I didn’t do a whole lot—I was just trying to hit some shots and get ready for next week. This was just kind of a bonus being there.” RAHM STILL ROLLING At fourth in the FedExCup points race, Jon Rahm now has six top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, the highlight being his Farmers Insurance Open win at Torrey Pines. He needed a replay of his final-hole eagle at Torrey Pines on Sunday, but airmailed the green and settled for a par. “I probably hit one of the best 5-woods I’ve hit in my life, probably better than the one at 18 at Torrey,” Rahm said. “The adrenaline—it was just so flushed and it was way longer than I expected. And then that chip was really hard.” Rahm’s par was a slight buzzkill, but he was still able to see the big picture. His form remains excellent, and next week he’ll take his game to TPC Sawgrass and THE PLAYERS, where, he noted, the success of his countryman Sergio Garcia suggests Rahm could do well there, too. “I’m playing against the best in the world,” Rahm said, “and to be my first year and have as many options as anyone to win tournaments, I’m extremely happy just about that. Hope I can keep it going and maybe next week have a chance again.” CALL OF THE DAY   KAUFMAN ALL SMILES Other than keeping good company in Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler, Smylie Kaufman has been having a rough go of it lately. Kaufman, 25, came to Eagle Point languishing at 203rd in the FedExCup standings after making only four cuts in 13 starts. His game was in a far different place than it was when he win the 2016 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Eagle Point, though, is nothing if not generous off the tee, and the long hitting Kaufman took to it immediately. His 4-under 68 Sunday got him to 7 under for the tournament, the leader in the clubhouse until Harman, Johnson, Perez and Rahm came in. “Yeah, I saw that,” said Kaufman, who ultimately slid down the board and into a T5 finish, still by far his best result this season. “It’s nice to be leading at something. I’ve been leading to the airport recently, so it’s nice to have my game trending in the right way.” The secret, Kaufman said, has been good, old fashioned hard work. He said he “grinded out a cut” at the Valero Texas Open, and while his T37 finish was nothing to write home about, it was at least a step in the right direction. He missed the cut again while playing with Harold Varner III at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but at least they shot a second-round 65. Then came the Wells Fargo at Eagle Point, and something to build on for real. “There’s going to be a time this year where I’ll have another opportunity to win,” Kaufman said, “and hopefully I can just reflect on my past experiences and go get it.” ODDS AND ENDS Going for his sixth PGA TOUR victory, leader Patrick Reed faded with a final-round 75 and tied for 12th. … The first three rounds, played in relentless wind, yielded just one bogey-free round apiece. In calmer conditions Sunday, Paul Casey (68), Xander Schauffele (68) and Tag Ridings (69) all went bogey-free. … Rahm was attempting to become the first international player 22 or younger with a multi-win season since Sergio Garcia in 2001. … Harman, the first lefty to win on TOUR since Greg Chalmers at the Barracuda Championship, has one top-10 finish, a T8 in 2015, in five career starts at THE PLAYERS. BEST OF SOCIAL MEDIA Nice going @harmanbrian. Awesome putt big daddy!!! — Hudson Swafford (@Hud_swafford) May 7, 2017 Also shoutout to the crowds out at the @WellsFargoGolf this week! They were awesome everyday! — Zac Blair (@z_blair) May 7, 2017 Fun week at @WellsFargoGolf definitely one of my favorites. As a NC kid always fun playing at home! Congrats to @harmanbrian #seaislandmafia — J.T. Poston (@JT_ThePostman) May 7, 2017 Making birdie at the 72nd hole to win. It’s tough to top this feeling. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/jhkCMpUSgV — PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 7, 2017

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