No, I am not burning Tiger Woods at THE PLAYERS Championship, and I encourage you to do the same. For as obvious that a healthy Woods is the man at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard that he’s won eight times (and for which the opposite of the opening line led off last week’s One & Done preview, which is why it could sound familiar), he’s as obvious a no-play at TPC Sawgrass. Just about everybody is. With double bogeys and worse awaiting around numerous corners, on several approaches and on the tees of par 3s of TPC Sawgrass, and with the deepest field the PGA TOUR offers attempting to tame it, this is the ideal week to abstain from the kind of talent on which you’re going to rely in the majors and FedExCup Playoffs. Since, in other preview material, I’ve already gone into how course success largely is a coincidence and that the course always wins, only rookie gamers who aren’t aware of the pitfalls of THE PLAYERS will be making piles on those usual suspects. Instead, the dispersion of ownership percentages should be flat and vast. Yes, 600 FedExCup points and $2.25 million goes to the winner, but the odds of you having that guy are lower here than probably every other week. Anecdotal arguments trumps the empirically rooted because it’s so apparent. Do not permit the temptation of taking a bite from that apple supersede your attraction to it. The simple philosophy is to use THE PLAYERS, the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play and The Open Championship as the glossiest bridges over which to navigate with chalk on the fringes. Each presents a blend of variables cause for pause. Repeat after me, “I want to burn a big name, but …” In order, the most sensible One & Done picks at TPC Sawgrass are Sergio Garcia, Francesco Molinari, Adam Scott, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tommy Fleetwood, Ian Poulter and Xander Schauffele. And get used to it in Austin and at Royal Portrush. You want starts performing on the biggest stages for certain, but you’re also going to be OK if any underachieves. The only point I’ll concede to veteran gamers who are chasing and will be circling guys like Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson is that you’re entitled to an extra risk-reward play with one less Playoffs event this season. Granted, that applies only to PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done gamers since FedExCup points measure performance, but earnings-based gamers still need to consider the merits of clubbing down off the tee. Speaking of the Playoffs, because the three-event series will end a month earlier this year and because THE PLAYERS is contested now, this is an ideal time to sit down and sketch out who’s still on your board and where you might want to take your swings with each of the remaining haymakers. In the past, I’ve advised using the Masters as the midseason timing mechanism for this review, but it might be too late by then in 2018-19. The purpose of waiting until now is to remain open-minded and fluid. This allows most of the picks to emerge organically, which should be more fun than penciling in probables for future stops. Now that you know how you stack up against your opposition, you can develop a plan of attack for the second half of the season. If you’re front-running, keep doing what you’re doing assuming you haven’t burned all of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking. In that extreme case, consider throttling back in the pursuit of moderation. If you’re behind, then think about playing more aggressively assuming you haven’t been a victim of unprecedented bad luck. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Byeong Hun An … Memorial (1) Daniel Berger … Travelers (1) Keegan Bradley … Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Rafa Cabrera Bello … PLAYERS (1); Wyndham (4) Patrick Cantlay … Valspar (2); Memorial (3) Paul Casey … Valspar (7; defending); WGC-Match Play (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (1); TOUR Championship (3) Jason Day … PLAYERS (7); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (6 defending); PGA Championship (3); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (9) Bryson DeChambeau … Heritage (1); Memorial (2; defending); Travelers (4); John Deere (7) Jason Dufner … PLAYERS (7); Valspar (4); New Orleans (1); Charles Schwab (6); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (2); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10) Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (2) Rickie Fowler … Masters (2); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (10) Sergio Garcia … PLAYERS (7); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Open Championship (5); TOUR Championship (2) Branden Grace … Heritage (1); Valero (3); Byron Nelson (5); U.S. Open (4) Emiliano Grillo … Charles Schwab (3) Adam Hadwin … Valspar (2); John Deere (5) Brian Harman … Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Masters (3) Charley Hoffman … Masters (4); Heritage (7); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) J.B. Holmes … Wells Fargo (5) Billy Horschel … Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Dustin Johnson … Masters (8); PGA Championship (11); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (1); WGC-St. Jude (6); TOUR Championship (7) Zach Johnson … Valero (4); Charles Schwab (5); John Deere (1); Open Championship (2); TOUR Championship (8) Si Woo Kim … PLAYERS (3); Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … PLAYERS (5); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (3); New Orleans (5); Charles Schwab (2); Memorial (6) Russell Knox … Heritage (2) Brooks Koepka … WGC-Match Play (3); Masters (7); PGA Championship (2; defending); Charles Schwab (6); U.S. Open (1; two-time defending); Open Championship (8) Matt Kuchar … PLAYERS (5); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Martin Laird … Valero (5); Reno-Tahoe (2) Marc Leishman … Byron Nelson (6); Memorial (4); Travelers (3); Open Championship (8) Hideki Matsuyama … PLAYERS (9); Masters (4); PGA Championship (13); Memorial (8); U.S. Open (14); Wyndham (7); TOUR Championship (5) Rory McIlroy … Masters (4); Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (5); Travelers (8); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (6) Phil Mickelson … Masters (9); Wells Fargo (2); Open Championship (8); WGC-St. Jude (3) Francesco Molinari … PLAYERS (3); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (1; defending) Ryan Moore … Valspar (3); Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Kevin Na … Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Louis Oosthuizen … Valspar (3); WGC-Match Play (1); Masters (2); U.S. Open (5); PGA Championship (4) Ryan Palmer … Valero (2); Charles Schwab (4) Scott Piercy … New Orleans (1; co-defending); Canadian (7; last winner at Hamilton in 2012) Jon Rahm … Masters (5); Charles Schwab (1); TOUR Championship (7) Patrick Reed … Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Justin Rose … PLAYERS (10); Masters (1); Charles Schwab (7; defending); Memorial (4); Open Championship (8); TOUR Championship (2) Xander Schauffele … PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (3); Open Championship (4); TOUR Championship (1) Adam Scott … PLAYERS (2); Masters (6); Byron Nelson (11); PGA Championship (8); U.S. Open (9); Open Championship (7); TOUR Championship (3) Webb Simpson … PLAYERS (5; defending); Heritage (6); Wells Fargo (7); Charles Schwab (8); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1) Cameron Smith … Wyndham (3) Brandt Snedeker … Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Jordan Spieth … Valspar (14); Masters (1); PGA Championship (7); Charles Schwab (5); Memorial (13); U.S. Open (4); Travelers (9); Open Championship (6); TOUR Championship (8) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Henrik Stenson … PLAYERS (9); Valspar (3); Masters (5); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (6); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (7) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Justin Thomas … PLAYERS (11); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (8); TOUR Championship (3) Jimmy Walker … Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6) Bubba Watson … WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8) Gary Woodland … Memorial (4) Tiger Woods … Masters (2); Memorial (4); THE NORTHERN TRUST (6); TOUR Championship (5; defending).
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