Fantasy golf advice: One & Done, Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Yes, I was going to burn Tiger Woods at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, and I was going to encourage you to do the same. As much as his early withdrawal from the tournament that he’s won eight times disrupts properly laid plans, the key word is “early.” Withdrawals sting all gamers and investors, but when they occur on Mondays, we can get over that frustration quickly. Woods’ WD also swung open the door for a straight-up trade with Rory McIlroy, who defends his title at Bay Hill. Certainly, McIlroy looks good almost everywhere, but the sharpest of his focus over time is on completing the career grand slam at the Masters. One & Doners will love him at Augusta National, but not unlike Jordan Spieth chasing down his career grand slam at Bethpage in May and Phil Mickelson in pursuit of his at Pebble Beach in June, there’s a valid argument to abstain on each of them in those tournaments. At least with your head. If you’re keen on making space for your heart in the decision-making process, then those are your picks for the season’s first three majors. So, suddenly, and pending good health, obviously, Woods presents a bit stronger for the Masters. With him off the board at Bay Hill, McIlroy, in tow with a title defense and torrid form upon arrival, becomes the no-brainer. If McIlroy wasn’t available to me, I’d pull the trigger on Bryson DeChambeau. After runner-up honors here last year, he picked off five victories worldwide. He’s still building a portfolio of reliable sites, but Bay Hill is one of them. Using Future Possibilities below to help sift through the gold in the deep field in Orlando, the API lines up as the top spot for Marc Leishman and Henrik Stenson. Leishman is a former winner (2017), but Stenson’s overall record is stronger. It’s just that Swede’s form at the moment is awful. He’s a trap. The only reason you don’t circle Leishman is because you’re saving him for the Travelers Championship and Bubba Watson for somewhere else (or the lefty is already off your board). Jason Day is percolating, but his win at Bay Hill in 2016 happens to be his only top 15. Given all of the factors involved, it’s smarter to holster him. Note that all four majors are included in his Future Possibilities. I’ve written about it multiple times already, but it’s worth yet another visit. Rickie Fowler is a man on a mission this year. That he exorcised the demons at TPC Scottsdale and prevailed in front of his family for the first time is a boost of confidence like no other. Save him for a major and stick with it. I haven’t made my mind up for the Masters, but the 30-year-old might get the nod. If Woods and Fowler don’t do it for you at Augusta National, then pencil in Justin Rose. His record at Bay Hill is terrific, but he’ll set up even better in five weeks. Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Reed also are in play this week, but each belongs on your radar in other stops. Look for Reed specifically in two weeks at Copperhead. Caution is the operative advice in weighing your decision for Francesco Molinari. It doesn’t hurt that he’s not lighting the world on fire anymore, but the API won’t be his first live action with the new golf ball. He finished T17 at the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship with it and his new clubs, but we still can’t expect him to find paydirt as rapidly as Fowler did with his new ball in Arizona. Ian Poulter doesn’t appear in Future Possibilities, but don’t hesitate if you’re chasing. He’s in a zone and sleeping in his own bed this week. IJP also sets up nicely in two-man formats for which Billy Horschel, Matt Every, Jason Kokrak and Bud Cauley are intriguing. I’d toss Martin Laird into that conversation, but he’s poised to be a weapon in Reno in late July. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Byeong Hun An … Memorial (1) Daniel Berger … Travelers (1) Keegan Bradley … Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Rafa Cabrera Bello … PLAYERS (1); Wyndham (4) Jason Day … Arnold Palmer (5); PLAYERS (7); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (6 defending); PGA Championship (3); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (9) Bryson DeChambeau … Arnold Palmer (3); Heritage (1);  Memorial (2; defending); Travelers (4); John Deere (7) Jason Dufner … PLAYERS (7); Valspar (4); New Orleans (1); Charles Schwab (6); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (2); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10) Rickie Fowler … Arnold Palmer (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (10) Bill Haas … WGC-Match Play (8); Heritage (4); Charles Schwab (2); Wyndham (6) Adam Hadwin … Valspar (2); John Deere (5) Brian Harman … Arnold Palmer (7); Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Charley Hoffman … Arnold Palmer (2); Masters (4); Heritage (7); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) J.B. Holmes … Wells Fargo (5) Billy Horschel … Arnold Palmer (7); Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Zach Johnson … Arnold Palmer (7); Valero (4); Charles Schwab (5); John Deere (1); Open Championship (2); TOUR Championship (8) Si Woo Kim … PLAYERS (3); Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … PLAYERS (5); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (3); New Orleans (5); Charles Schwab (2); Memorial (6) Brooks Koepka … WGC-Match Play (3); Masters (7); PGA Championship (2; defending); Charles Schwab (6); U.S. Open (1; two-time defending); Open Championship (8) Martin Laird … Valero (5); Reno-Tahoe (2) Marc Leishman … Arnold Palmer (1); Byron Nelson (6); Memorial (4); Travelers (3); Open Championship (8) Hideki Matsuyama … Arnold Palmer (11); PLAYERS (9); Masters (4); PGA Championship (13); Memorial (8); U.S. Open (14); Wyndham (7); TOUR Championship (5) Rory McIlroy … Arnold Palmer (2; defending); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (5); Travelers (8); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (6) Phil Mickelson … Masters (9); Wells Fargo (2); Open Championship (8); WGC-St. Jude (3) Francesco Molinari … Arnold Palmer (2); PLAYERS (3); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (1; defending) Ryan Moore … Valspar (3); Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Kevin Na … Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Louis Oosthuizen … Valspar (3); WGC-Match Play (1); Masters (2); U.S. Open (5); PGA Championship (4) Scott Piercy … New Orleans (1; co-defending); Canadian (7; last winner at Hamilton in 2012) Patrick Reed … Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Justin Rose … Arnold Palmer (3); Masters (1); PLAYERS (10); Charles Schwab (7; defending); Memorial (4); Open Championship (8); TOUR Championship (2) Brandt Snedeker … Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Henrik Stenson … Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (9); Valspar (3); Masters (5); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (6); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (7) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Jimmy Walker … Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6) Bubba Watson … WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8)

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