Expert Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

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Bryson DeChambeau opened his 2018-19 season pretty much how he finished the last one, firing a final-round 66 to reach 21 under and secure his fifth PGA TOUR victory and fourth since June at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where DeChambeau held off a hard-charging Patrick Cantlay (65) by one to recall his form in the FedExCup Playoffs last fall. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Everything changed in a matter of minutes. Some tournaments are hard to encapsulate with any sort of turning point. Not this one. Playing behind Cantlay, DeChambeau had just lost the lead when he rolled in an eagle putt of 57 feet, 7 inches from just behind the green at the par-5 16th hole. Meanwhile, Cantlay was up ahead making bogey from the greenside bunker at the par-3 17th. Just like that, DeChambeau had gone from one behind to two ahead and in the driver’s seat. Two more pars to close it out and he was left to talk about his reaction to the eagle, capped off with a Tiger-like fist pump. “Yeah, when I hit it it’s like, all right, it’s pretty solid speed off the start,â€� DeChambeau said. “Then I saw it about halfway down there and I was like, ‘Ooh, that might be a little fast.’ For whatever reason the slope gradually declined and went to about like a 2 percent slope and the ball started just rolling perfectly to the right just like I had envisioned. “Just held straight that last little bit and was able to trickle in,â€� he added. “I haven’t given a reaction like that in a while. That was pretty cool.â€� 2. Cantlay ran out of holes. Vying to become the first to successfully defend his title in Vegas since Jim Furyk (’99), Cantlay was just 1 under for his first 27 holes, but 19 under for his final 45. “I really got off to a slow start Friday, or Thursday and Friday, and that was too much to overcome,â€� he said. “Played really well this weekend and I’m proud of that.â€� He did well to birdie the par-5 16th after yanking his tee shot left, and closed with a clutch birdie on 18. A poor bunker shot at the par-3 17th, his ball barely escaping the sand, led to a bogey. “It was just a poor shot at the wrong time,â€� Cantlay said. 3. Sam Ryder is knocking on the door. Ryder’s pants, which showed a lot of ankle, got a lot of commentary on the telecast, but it was his play that spoke loudest. His final-round 62 was another suggestion that a win is coming. “I knew it was going to have to be silly low if I was going to have a chance,â€� Ryder said. “I just wanted to have a good day and take it hole by hole, shot by shot, play well, and that’s kind of what I did. Just made maybe the best ball-striking round of my life.â€� As good as it was, it could have been even better had he not found the water in front of the green at the par-5 16th hole, where he had to scramble for a par. “Wish I could have had the one back on 16,â€� he said. “I mean, I want to go laser that after the day’s over. I said, ‘Be right,’ and I thought — I mean, I thought that was perfect. I could not have hit it better. Came up a little short. “All in all, happy with it. Few too many 5s on the scorecard, but good day.â€� 4. Rickie Fowler is in form heading to Mexico. Fowler’s 63 (T4) was his best final round in an official TOUR event, although he closed with a 61 to win the unofficial Hero World Challenge a year ago. Now he heads to the Mayakoba Golf Classic, where he was runner-up last year. “It seemed to get better and better,â€� said Fowler, who worked with his Vegas-based swing coach, Butch Harmon, last week. “I think we continued to shake some rust off every day. Putter felt a lot better today. I’m looking forward to (Mayakoba).â€� Fowler’s 63 marked the fourth time he’s shot 63 or better on TOUR, with his career low still the 62 he shot in the second round of the 2011 Waste Management Phoenix Open. 5. Jordan Spieth saw both good and bad. A T55 finish was nothing to write home about for 2015 FedExCup champion Spieth, who was making his first fall start in the U.S. But that’s not to say there weren’t some highlights. First among them was perhaps his chipping and putting as he opened with a 5-under 66, then chased that with a second-round 68. Alas, struggled on the weekend, signing for 71-72 to fall way back. What happened? He was using a new driver and 3-wood, which he said didn’t work out. “I’m going to go back to my old stuff (at Mayakoba) next week,â€� he said. He added that he had suffered some lousy breaks (plugged lies, balls in divots), and lost his swing on the weekend. All of that notwithstanding, it’s still early in the new season as Spieth tries to bounce back from a winless 2017-18, when he finished 31st in the FedExCup. And he said he would take some poignant memories away from the Shriners. “The hospitality and really the way that the kids from the hospital we really incorporated into the week was fantastic,â€� Spieth said. “I thought it was incredible to have standard-bearers from the hospital and the way that they were able to incorporate it on the range and then throughout the practice rounds, the pro-ams, really makes it a special week for sure.â€� FIVE INSIGHTS 1. DeChambeau was a monster on the back nine, going 16 under compared to just 5 under on the front. He was one of three players (Bud Cauley, Richy Werenski) to go bogey-free on the back nine the entire week. He hit 34 of 36 greens in regulation on the back nine over the weekend, when he was +4.81 in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green. 2. More dialed-in from tee to green than in any of his previous four wins, DeChambeau was sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and third in SG: Approach-the-Green. He led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green (+13.550), was fourth in fairways hit (44/56), T4 in greens in regulation (60/72), and took 115 total putts. Which of those stats stood out? “I drove it incredible,â€� DeChambeau said. 3. Abraham Ancer (66, T4) notched his second top-5 finish in three starts this season (T5 CIMB Classic) and now heads to his native Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic (T9 last year). 4. There were five bogey-free rounds Sunday: Ryder (62), Fowler (63), Brandon Harkins (64), Joaquin Niemann (66), and Alex Prugh (69). Ryder’s 62 marked his career low and second top-four finish in his last three starts, and his third-place finish moved into 10th in the FedExCup. 5. Newly minted 2017-18 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Aaron Wise led the field with 27 birdies, one more than Cantlay, whose nine on Sunday tied his career best for one round. WYNDHAM REWARDS The top 10 players at the end of the FedExCup Regular Season will benefit from the Wyndham Rewards program. Xander Schauffele maintains the top spot while Bryson DeChambeau jumps to fifth after winning the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Runner-up Patrick Cantlay moved from 26th to sixth, while third-place Sam Ryder jumped from 31st to 10th.

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THE OVERVIEW Some players prefer to rest the week before a major championship. Phil Mickelson, on the other hand, prefers to play. “Some people feel like if they win, they’ve expended too much energy and don’t carry it over,â€� Mickelson said. “For me, I’ve actually won two of my five majors winning the week before and I think it would be momentum that I would carry over to the U.S. Open. That’s why I would love to play well and hopefully come out on top.â€� No one has played better than Mickelson in Memphis over the last five years since he added the FedEx St. Jude Classic to his schedule before the U.S. Open. Since 2013, he’s never finished worse than T11 with 15 sub-70 rounds and two runner-ups. No one will confuse TPC Southwind with Oakmont or Shinnecock, but the course setup has given Mickelson the opportunity to work on sharpening his mental game and accuracy — two things that are absolutely imperative at the U.S. Open, long considered the toughest test in professional golf. “I feel the best way for me to prepare for the U.S. Open is to get in contention and get sharp mentally and with my game,â€� Mickelson said. “That’s what playing here in Memphis does. Precision is a key factor at this course. “[TPC Southwind] doesn’t beat you up with length, you don’t have to go out and bomb it. You’ve got to be precise with every shot off the tee.â€� Mickelson will not only need to be precise off the tee this week, but at Shinnecock as well. Given his strong history in Memphis, Mickelson spent the early part of the week logging practice rounds at the Long Island course, even getting in a practice round with Villanova basketball coach Jay Wright. “I feel like all areas of your game are going to be tested and skill is going to be a huge factor, especially chipping and putting around the greens,â€� Mickelson said. “Very challenging but very fair. It’s not hack-it-out rough, it’s fairway height, but the greens are so difficult that it’s hard to get the ball close and I love the challenge.â€� While Mickelson has his sights set on Shinnecock, he isn’t looking beyond this week. Given his respect for TPC Southwind and the tournament, Mickelson admitted he’d love to somehow find a way to fill two holes in his Hall-of-Fame resume over the next two weeks. “I very much would like to win [the FedEx St. Jude Classic],â€� Mickelson said. “Winning earlier this year meant a lot to me, and I’d love to add a couple more this year and this is an ideal spot. I know I’ll be in it on Sunday, I just hope I shoot low enough to pull through.â€� THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER Phil Mickelson Very few players have a better track record at TPC Southwind than Mickelson. His last five starts include two T2s and a T3. With the U.S. Open on tap, this has turned into a perfect week to sharpen his game. Joaquín Niemann Already has Special Temporary Membership on TOUR with three top 10s in his first five starts as a pro. His ability and fearless nature were on display during the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, where he finished T6. Brooks Koepka Played the FedEx St. Jude Classic last year before going on to win the following week at the U.S. Open. Last four starts at TPC Southwind feature a T2, T3 and a scoring average of 68.56. Much of his recent success this season — he finished runner-up at the Fort Worth Invitational — can be attributed to a healthy wrist. THE FLYOVER A closer look at TPC Southwind’s finishing hole, the 453-yard par-4 18th. Last year, it played to a stroke average of 4.140, making it the sixth most difficult hole on the course, and ranked as the 15th most difficult closing hole on TOUR last season. Just like its shorter but slightly more severe cousin, the par-4 12th, the 18th’s primary defense is water. A total of 839 shots have ended up in the water since 2003, fifth most of any hole on TOUR during that span. THE LANDING ZONE The 485-yard fifth ranked as the toughest hole on the course during last season’s tournament, with a scoring average of 4.240. Finding the fairway is the biggest challenge, as the hole ranked as the second toughest to hit, with just 28 percent of the field finding the short grass off the tee during the final round. A large tree on the right side of the fairway comes into play, while the left side is lined with spectator mounds. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams: “High pressure will influence the weather on Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies and hot afternoon temperatures. Humidity levels will increase each day and by Friday the heat index will approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit. A weak front is forecast to drop down into Tennessee by Sunday and could produce a few scattered thunderstorms.â€� For the latest weather news from Memphis, Tennessee check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK I think a lot of it reminds me of the golf course that I grew up on. Bermuda green, a lot of familiar tee shots, and overall, it just feels like I’m back home. I know it’s Memphis, but it reminds me a lot Florida. BY THE NUMBERS 4 – Daniel Berger became the fourth back-to-back winner at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, joining David Toms, Lee Trevino and Dave Hill. 4,964 – Since 2003, TPC Southwind has surrendered 4,964 balls in the water. The total number of balls in the water is 1,562 more than TPC Sawgrass with 3,707. 6 – Since 2007, six of the 11 FedEx St. Jude Classic champions have qualified for the TOUR Championship. SCATTERSHOTS There’s something about TPC Southwind that prepares a player to win the U.S. Open. The last two champions (Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson) played the week prior in Memphis before going on to win their first major title. In the ShotLink era (Since 2003), six FedEx St. Jude Classic champions did not find the water at TPC Southwind en route to their respective victories and three of the last four champions at this event since 2014. Phil Mickelson is a combined 41-under par, recording 18 of 20 rounds of par or better and 90 birdies or better. Mickelson has record four top 10s in five starts at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, tied with Billy Horschel for the most top-10 finishes at this event in this stretch.

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