Expert Picks: RBC Heritage

2021 Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Hudson Swafford (1, -12, 15.6%) 2. Luke List (T2, -10, 14.4%) 3. Mackenzie Hughes (T5, -9, 8.3%) 4. Sepp Straka (T5, -9, 6.8%) 5. Adam Long (T5, -9, 6.4%) 6. Sam Burns (T9, -8, 6.1%) 7. Sean O’Hair (T2, -10, 6.1%) 8. Justin Suh (T2, -10, 5.7%) 9. Xinjun Zhang (T5, -9, 5.1%) 10. Patrick Rodgers (T9, -8, 4.3%) Biggest movers in Round 2 (in terms of win %): Positive moves: 1. Luke List (+12.1%) 2. Hudson Swafford (+10.9%) 3. Adam Long (+5.6%) Negative moves: 1. Scott Harrington (-4.2%) 2. Sepp Straka (-3.5%) 3. Tyler McCumber (-3.3%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the U.S. Open, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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In my weekly segment on “Talk of the TOUR” with John Swantek on the day before THE NORTHERN TRUST began, I cited that this year’s class for the FedExCup Playoffs presents the feel that the eventual FedExCup champion will start the TOUR Championship inside the top five in points and win the finale. Kudos to you if you’re familiar with me enough to come away with the reaction that you’re shocked that I’d go on the record with an unquantifiable assessment like that. Despite what some think of my work, I don’t make predictions. I project; rather, I guide you to golfers’ projections no matter the directions they take us. Even if you’re new to me and my analysis, insight and opinion, understand that I take seriously the difference between predictions and projections. In other words, as harmless as my comment is that the 2017 FedExCup champion will have commanded his own destiny at East Lake, if I truly didn’t enter that conversation with Swanny with that thought (belief?), I wouldn’t have shared it. Lo and behold, the fellas answered the first bell at Glen Oaks. Each of the five golfers who finished inside the top five in the tournament (and eight of the top nine) started the Playoffs ranked inside the top 30 in points. It’s already a compelling sign of confidence and bears comparing to how previous Playoffs have transpired. In every edition from 2012-2015, the FedExCup champion started the TOUR Championship inside the top five in points and won the finale. In those four years combined, nine of the 25 golfers who posted top fives in the first leg of the Playoffs started the series inside the top 30 in points. Only 2012 FedExCup champ Brandt Snedeker was among them, but I didn’t go into that year with the same expectation that prompted my confident assertion last week. TALES OF THE TAPE Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. If a trend that the best will continue to play the best, then the winner of the Dell Technologies Championship will be among the top 10 in points upon arrival. This is because none of the last three winners (above) were. In fact, to find the last, you have to go back to Rory McIlroy’s first title at TPC Boston in 2012 when he was fourth in the FedExCup standings entering the event. McIlroy’s playbook in this tournament slots him first in all-time earnings (see Confidence Men below), so if you set him aside as a horse for a course for a moment, the similarities between Chris Kirk and Rickie Fowler are just as valuable even when they don’t align with McIlroy’s formula for success. Collectively, they generate the five identifiers immediately below. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 20 or 25 in each statistic on the PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the Dell Technologies Championship. Those who haven’t logged enough rounds to qualify for official rankings are omitted. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the Dell Technologies Championship in 2014, 2015 and/or 2016. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank Golfer 1 *Dustin Johnson 2 *Rory McIlroy 3 Francesco Molinari 4 Hideki Matsuyama 5 Jon Rahm 6 Jordan Spieth 7 *Paul Casey 8 Tony Finau 9 Kyle Stanley 10 Sergio Garcia 11 Justin Thomas 12 *Rickie Fowler 13 Luke List 14 Justin Rose 15 *Webb Simpson 16 *Adam Scott 17 Marc Leishman 18 *Louis Oosthuizen 19 Gary Woodland 20 Brendan Steele Proximity to the Hole Rank Golfer 2 Kyle Stanley 5 Chez Reavie T6 Jordan Spieth 10 *Dustin Johnson T12 Chad Campbell T12 *Webb Simpson T16 Graham DeLaet T16 Jason Dufner T24 Kevin Na Strokes Gained: Putting Rank Golfer 2 *Rickie Fowler 4 Brian Harman 6 Rafa Cabrera Bello 7 Jonas Blixt 8 David Lingmerth 9 *Patrick Reed 10 Mackenzie Hughes 15 Kevin Kisner 19 Whee Kim 20 Camilo Villegas Scrambling Rank Golfer 1 Ian Poulter 2 *Webb Simpson 4 Chad Campbell 5 *Matt Kuchar 6 *Paul Casey 8 *Rickie Fowler 11 *Rory McIlroy 13 Charles Howell III 16 *Dustin Johnson 18 Chez Reavie 20 Hideki Matsuyama Par-3 Scoring Rank Golfer T3 *Rickie Fowler T3 *Adam Scott T7 Chez Reavie T10 Marc Leishman T10 J.J. Spaun T10 Jordan Spieth T17 Wesley Bryan T17 Chad Campbell T17 Graham DeLaet T17 Brian Harman T17 Justin Thomas T17 Camilo Villegas The field of 96 at TPC Boston is well-represented below. Note that all historical results since the inaugural edition in 2003 are included. This means that experience prior to the redesign in 2007 is baked in. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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