Expert Picks: Houston Open

NAPA, Calif. — Bryson DeChambeau hasn’t had much chance to get familiar with his wedge after changing to a graphite shaft this week. The Northern California native certainly looked comfortable enough Friday as he attacked pin after pin to surge up the leaderboard at the Safeway Open. DeChambeau shot a bogey-free 8-under 64 on Friday to take a two-shot lead in the Safeway Open. DeChambeau had a 12-under 132 total at Silverado Country Club. The 26-year-old matched two others for the best round of the day and was in line to extend his lead, but left a 20-foot eagle putt short on No. 18. “It’s always fun to come out and play to the potential you know you can,” DeChambeau said. “The greens got a little bumpy this afternoon but they’re still rolling nice enough to make some putts. I was able to control my line, control my speed and have a couple of them drop in.” DeChambeau missed the cut at the season-opening event at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, didn’t play in last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship and got off to a slow start this week with an opening-round 68 that left him four shots back. After beginning the second round with four consecutive pars, DeChambeau birdied No. 5, sank a 35-footer for birdie on No. 6, then had a tap in for another birdie on No. 8. He opened the back nine with three straight birdies, made another birdie on No. 14 then closed with a final birdie on 18. “I knew if I could go work on my swing like I did yesterday and come out and feel comfortable like I did today, I’d come out and shoot a low number,” DeChambeau said. Nick Watney was second after a 65. Watney needed just 22 putts to complete his round and stay within range of DeChambeau. “(The greens) are getting a little bit crispy right now, but they rolled pretty pure for me,” Watney said. Justin Thomas made nine birdies and matched DeChambeau with a 64 that left him tied with Nick Taylor (66), Dylan Frittelli (65), Adam Long (68) and Cameron Champ (68) at 9 under. First-round leaders Adam Scott and Andrew Landry tumbled down the leaderboard. Scott struggled off the tee most of the afternoon and shot a 73 to fall into tie for 14th at 6 under. Landry shot 74 and drop to 5 under. A few big names won’t be playing over the weekend. Phil Mickelson shot 69 but was doomed by an opening 75 that included a quadruple bogey. Defending champion Kevin Tway bogeyed the final hole for a 72 to miss the cut by a stroke. “The way I see it, there were eight par 5s and I’ve got to play those 4 to 6 under par to have a chance to win,” Mickelson said. “I played them 4 over. So there’s eight to 10 shots right there on simply the par 5s. It tells me that some areas are OK, but that’s the area that I’ve got to improve on.” Tony Romo, the former NFL quarterback and current CBS analyst, also missed the cut, following an opening 70 with a 78. If he had made the cut, he planned to skip Sunday’s NFL broadcast in Chicago between the Bears and Minnesota Vikings.

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Since ShotLink will be measuring performance only at PGA WEST’s Stadium Course for this week’s CareerBuilder Challenge, the full array of fantasy scoring will not be in play in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. Only actual scoring will apply before bonus points are rewarded for your starters in the final round. This also will be the case at next week’s Farmers Insurance Open, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on Feb. 8-11 and the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship on March 22-25. All are contributing events in Segment 2. Because of the fantasy scoring, how the Stadium Course stacks up against the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST and La Quinta Country Club isn’t as impactful, but it’s not irrelevant, either. Note the scoring averages of each in the two years the three courses have co-hosted the tournament: 2016 68.936 = Tournament Course 69.148 = La Quinta 70.818 = Stadium Course (final round = 70.614) 2017 69.635 = La Quinta 70.744 = Tournament Course 71.588 = Stadium Course (final round = 71.299) NOTE: Only the Stadium Course is used for the final round of the tournament. The Tournament Course experienced the greatest change in last year’s inclement conditions. Although wind on Friday this week could even the Tournament Course and La Quinta overall, the forecast projects a return to the kinds of three-round averages logged in 2016. Our approach is simple. Since lower rounds correlate directly to higher fantasy scores, even modestly this week, consider building a lineup that consists of two golfers in each rotation. This leaves you with two golfers on both the Tournament Course and La Quinta in each of the first three rounds. Of course, if you commit to this plan, you’ll be burning one start on each of your six and in a low-scoring affair. So, if you’re inclined to resist, consider playing the Stadium Course on Thursday when the weather is expected to be the most favorable. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for the CareerBuilder Challenge (in alphabetical order): Bud Cauley Jason Dufner Brian Harman Jon Rahm Chez Reavie Webb Simpson You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Tom Hoge; David Lingmerth; Luke List; Phil Mickelson; Patrick Reed; Brendan Steele Driving: n/a Approach: n/a Short: n/a Power Rankings Wild Card Kevin Kisner … It’ll surprise those who think he’s the biggest snub in the Power Rankings that last year’s T25 in his only top-45 finish in five tries in this tournament. He was bouncing off a T4 at Waialae at the time, so it made sense that he sustained form. The rub is that shootouts favor the random, so even the biggest chips on the board are neutralized. Without better evidence that this is a site where he’ll emerge, our expectations must remain tempered. It also doesn’t help that he’ll be putting on rye-Poa blends instead of his favored Bermuda. Draws Hudson Swafford … If he wasn’t the defending champion, he’d size up as sneaky because of his propensity to make cuts. He’s cashed in nine straight starts and 14 of his last 15. The worry is that he’ll be distracted by new experiences outside the ropes as last year’s winner, but he can lather in that attention since he’s already familiar with the rotation having competed in both previous editions. Tom Hoge … Multiple people associated with the TOUR have shared publicly or privately with me that they’re quite impressed with his game. And that was before last week’s career-best solo third at Waialae where he held the 54-hole lead and ranked third in proximity for the week. From my analytical perspective, the trending is there to corroborate what those experienced eyeballs have witnessed. He has two top 10s and a T25 already this season. The 28-year-old has also exhibited a comportment in his rhetoric that supports further investment. Austin Cook … To the avid fan, what he’s accomplishing is rare; that is, immediately fulfilling the promise that was projected years ago. Think Adam Hadwin or Bud Cauley, although injury interrupted Cauley’s ascent. Cook already has the win at The RSM Classic on the books, but last week’s T18 at Waialae was his fourth top 25 in full-field competition this season. He’s carried phenomenal form from last year’s Web.com Tour to the sport’s highest level and hasn’t blinked. Expect the same confidence and composure from the 26-year-old in his debut at the CareerBuilder. Zach Johnson … Look out. It’s been four years since he’s made the cut here but that hasn’t deterred him from returning. It’s also a slump that can’t last forever. Aside from that positive spin, he’s coming off a T14 at the Sony Open in Hawaii where he led the field in proximity to the hole and ranked T8 in greens hit. Yes, he’s thrived at Waialae, but the result was an extension of months of sound play (five straight top 25s). He likely won’t come cheap in DFS, but contrarians won’t care. Nor should they. Martin Laird … As a long-hitting ball-striker, he falls into the same category as Lucas Glover, who is one of my Sleepers this week. Laird was a Sleeper here last year and placed T9. He’s missed only one cut in 10 appearances and that was in 2010 when the tournament went five rounds. The Scot is a gem in all formats. Ryan Palmer (DFS) Brendan Steele (all) Fades Adam Hadwin … With a T6 (2016), a solo second (2017) and a 59 at La Quinta last year, course history buffs won’t think twice. However, his proficiency on and around greens has deserted him of late and he’s been a non-factor exponentially more often than he’s threatened. Quintessential trap. Kevin Chappell … He placed T8 in this tournament in 2013 with a closing 62, but it’s his only top 25 in five tries. It’s also a reminder that he’s best suited when a shootout isn’t expected. Bubba Watson … Ah, the promise of a new year. He actually held on nicely while learning how to flight a different golf ball in 2017, but his return to a more familiar orb has salary gamers salivating at just $1.223 million. No need for weekly gamers to rush him back into play, though, especially at a tournament where he’s ending a six-year hiatus and where a shootout will occur. Use this as an opportunity to observe and learn. Brandt Snedeker … As he debuts with his new caddie, Matt Hauser, we can’t forget that Sneds is still feeling his way back from the sternum injury that sidelined him for nearly five months in the second half of 2017. He returned for a T29 at Sea Island and played the QBE Shootout to quiet concerns of full-season investors. His mid-tournament withdrawal from the Indonesian Masters was due to heat stroke, which shouldn’t overshadow that he kept his commitment to compete overseas at all. Despite that relative good news, this is his first look at the current rotation of tracks used for the CareerBuilder, so you’re encouraged to let him ease into it alone. Russell Knox … Now that he’s reconnecting with usable form (with two top 10s among a 5-for-5 start to the season), he’s worth keeping an eye affixed, but he’s a flier at best in DFS in his first appearance on the current rotation of courses at CareerBuilder. Jimmy Walker … Continues to work back into playing shape as much as his health will allow. This is his first appearance in the CareerBuilder in five years and it figures to present a modicum of confidence at a site where he can watch putts drop, but we need to remain cautious. Keep him in your crosshairs for the Genesis Open in a month. By then, we should have his pulse. Maverick McNealy … This is a nice tune-up for his rookie season on the Web.com Tour, but only keeper leaguers should be dabbling at the moment. He’s done a masterful job of letting his future come to him, so there’s no reason to rush. Kevin Na Jhonattan Vegas Returning to Competition Steve Marino, Will MacKenzie and Shane Bertsch competed in The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic at Sandals Emerald Bay that launched the 2018 Web.com Tour season. All three are on medical extensions on the PGA TOUR this season, but only Marino and MacKenzie are worth looks in the deepest of full-season formats. (Both are committed to next week’s second stop in The Bahamas as well.) For the terms of all golfers on medicals, click here or use the following navigation at the top: MENU→Fantasy→Medical Extensions. Notables WDs Ollie Schniederjans … Also withdrew early from the OHL Classic at Mayakoba in the fall. Hasn’t used social media to explain this week’s decision, so it could be nothing more than a shift in scheduling after the commitment deadline. He’s 103rd in the Official World Golf Ranking after a T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and not yet exempt into any of the majors or World Golf Championships. In due time, he’ll be a fixture in all of them. D.A. Points … Placed T66 in both of the last two editions of the tournament and hasn’t cracked the top 40 in eight appearances overall. Last week’s T73 at Waialae extended his drought without a top 50 in a full-field event to eight months. Power Rankings Recap – Sony Open in Hawaii Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Brian Harman  T4 2  Jordan Spieth  T18 3  Justin Thomas  T14 4  Marc Leishman  T47 5  Kevin Kisner  T25 6  Daniel Berger  T14 7  Zach Johnson  T14 8  Jason Dufner  T18 9  Charles Howell III  T32 10  Cameron Smith  T18 11  Tony Finau  T32 12  Russell Henley  MC 13  Gary Woodland  T7 14  Chez Reavie  T18 15  Peter Uihlein  MC Wild Card  Si Woo Kim  T58 Sleepers – Sony Open in Hawaii Golfer  Result Jason Kokrak  T47 William McGirt  T65 Yusaku Miyazato  MC John Oda  T67 J.J. Spaun  T47 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR January 16 … Jimmy Walker (39) January 17 … none January 18 … none January 19 … Brian Harman (31); Tommy Fleetwood (27) January 20 … Derek Fathauer (32) January 21 … none January 22 … Graham DeLaet (36); Marty Dou (21)

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The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland for the third week of the 2020 calendar year. The American Express will still be headlined by two-time champion Phil Mickelson, but now he goes from tournament ambassador to tournament host. The storied event, which was most famously hosted by Bob Hope, is in its 61st year but its first with American Express as title sponsor. It will be played on the par-72, 7,159-yard Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, the par-72, 7,060-yard La Quinta Country Club, and the par-72, 7,113-yard host course, the Stadium Course at PGA West. Adam Long will defend his first TOUR title a year after he edged Mickelson and Adam Hadwin by one. This year’s field features 17 of the top 30 in the FedExCup standings, led by Brendon Todd (2) and Sebastian Munoz (4). RELATED: Tee times | Power Rankings THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER THE FLYOVER The 168-yard, par-3 17th hole, known as Alcatraz, was one of the signature creations of famed golf course architect Pete Dye, who died last week at 94. True to its name, the hole features an island green with a tiny pot bunker, all of it surrounded by a ring of rocks and then water. It played as the third hardest hole last year, with a 3.093 stroke average. There were 35 birdies, 16 bogeys and, not surprisingly, 20 double-bogeys. LANDING ZONE The 560-yard, par-5 16th hole is this week’s Aon Risk-Reward hole. Since 2016, 86% of players who found the fairway off the tee went for the green. Players who go for the green have a 60% chance of making birdie or better when avoiding the greenside bunker on their second shot. Adam Long made two pars on the hole on the way to capturing his first victory last year, but it was the second easiest hole on the course, with a 4.590 stroke average. There were 96 birdies and six eagles compared to just 11 bogeys and two double-bogeys. WEATHER CHECK From meteorologist Stewart Williams: “A weakening cold front will move across Southern California late Thursday night into early Friday bringing a small chance for showers. The wind will likely increase during the afternoon to 12-18 mph and continue into the overnight out of the WNW 15-20 gusting to 30 mph. This system will quickly pass by Friday morning with partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s. A gradual warming trend can be expected this weekend with highs warming near the mid 70s by Sunday. High clouds will likely stream over the region this weekend filtering the sun at times as well.â€� For the latest weather news from Palm Desert, check out the PGA TOUR weather Hub. SOUND CHECK When I stop hitting bombs I’ll play the Champions Tour. BY THE NUMBERS -601 – Cumulative score to par in California PGA TOUR events by Phil Mickelson since 1983, second best behind only Fred Couples. 26 – Number of Top-10 finishes by Tony Finau the last four seasons, the most by any player without a win. 255 – Low 72-hole score, by Steve Stricker, who is in this week’s field, in 2009. +121 – Move up the FedExCup standings by Brendan Steele after his runner-up finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week, the biggest mover of the week. SCATTERSHOTS Casey still in mid-season form: Paul Casey, 42, finished a lackluster T19 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but says not to be fooled. He’s playing well. Why? Because with his T17 at the inaugural ZOZO Championship, followed by a start at the Australian Open in December, he never really stopped competing over the holidays. “My off-season’s been very, very short,â€� he said from The American Express, a tournament he last played in 2017 (T58), and only twice before that (MCs in 2002 and 2015). “I feel like I’ve just kind of continued, continued my year, not really stopped, which is a bit strange, but I’m actually fine about it.â€� It’s a Ryder Cup year, which always perks him up, and he’ll be the two-time defending champion at the Valspar Championship in the Florida Swing. “I feel like the game’s in a really good place,â€� he said. “And normally this time of year I would still be trying to get going and learning where my game is at, but I feel like my game’s in a good position, so the lack of off-season, if anything, is probably going to put me in a good position.â€� New-look Mickelson aims to end slump: Phil Mickelson won the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but then went cold. Now he’s back with a new look after altering his diet to include fasting, specialty coffee, and a moratorium on junk. “It’s embarrassing the way I looked,â€� Mickelson said Wednesday. “… I wasn’t really accountable for my health.â€� Now that he is, he said he feels better than he did then and, “there’s no reason that would hold me back from being able to play and practice as hard as I can to play well out here.â€� He’s tried to address his wildness off the tee, which he said led to a water ball on the ninth hole on Sunday last year that cost him the tournament. His clubhead speed, he said, is up. Energy: up. Interest level: up. He loves the challenge of coming back to beat the greatest young players in the world, especially now that he’s feeling renewed. “There’s something that resonated with me,â€� he said, “and that was that everything I put into my body is either helping to fight disease or it’s causing disease. And that saying has me look at everything I eat as to is this helping me or hurting me. And for the most part, I’m not a hundred percent, but most of the things that I put in are helping me.â€�

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