Bad weather is headed toward Augusta National, and that could change everything at the Masters. Will Patrick Reed, the 36-hole leader, weather the storm? History isn’t necessarily on his side.
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The house lights are flashing to signify that intermission is over. Yes! Intermission is over! What a first half of the FedExCup Playoffs it was. Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas captured victory at THE NORTHERN TRUST and Dell Technologies Championship, respectively, but it’s Jordan Spieth atop the standings with consecutive runner-up finishes. He’s the first non-winner of the first two FedExCup Playoffs events in history to sit No. 1 entering the BMW Championship, a feat even more unfathomable given he started the series third in points. Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois, hosts the third leg for the third time. Of this week’s field of 70, 42 competed either in 2013 or in 2015. Twenty-three played in both editions. Two wins and a T6 in his last three starts. Leading the FedExCup Playoffs in scrambling and one-putt percentage. Shared 13th in his first look at Conway Farms in 2015. Leading the FedExCup Playoffs in adjusted scoring thanks to ranking fourth in GIR and third in birdie-or-better percentage. T16 (2013) and T13 (2015) at Conway Farms. The defending champion prevailed at Crooked Stick last year, but he finished T7 at Conway Farms in 2015. Pacing the FedExCup Playoffs in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Connected five top 15s, and then shook off short week at Glen Oaks where the greens befuddled him with a T23 at TPC Boston. T7 at Conway Farms in 2015. Top fives in five consecutive FedExCup Playoffs events. Top 15s in his last six starts of 2017. Seventh on TOUR in adjusted scoring. T23 in Conway Farms debut in 2015. Regularly in the mix all year. Ranks third in the FedExCup Playoffs in strokes gained: off-the-tee and T7 in proximity en route a T20 (Glen Oaks) and T13 (TPC Boston). T4 at 2015 BMW. Slots fifth in points with renewed mindset and T3-T4 opening. Leading the FedExCup Playoffs in strokes gained: putting. Also third in birdie-or-better percentage and T7 in bogey avoidance. Shifted it into a higher gear at Quail Hollow, where he shared runner-up honors. A respective T20 and T6 to begin the FedExCup Playoffs in which he ranks T5 in bogey avoidance. T10s to open the FedExCup Playoffs are first consecutive top 10s since January. Now 17th in points and poised to head to East Lake where he’s been phenomenal. T13 here in 2015. Rested the last two weeks after four straight on the road with no worse than T17 (twice). Top 20s in six of last seven starts worldwide. Tied for 10th at the 2015 BMW. Added a solo third at the Dell Technologies Championship to what has already been a sparkling 2017. Ranks third in greens in regulation during the FedExCup Playoffs. Opened with 61 and went wire-to-wire at Conway Farms in 2015. Not nearly as sharp of late, but enters having logged four straight top 25s, two of which for a top 10. Headed in the wrong direction but has everything to gain at 51st in points, so he’s dangerous. Placed T4 at Conway Farms in 2015, ranking second in par-5 scoring. Debutant is handling the series like a veteran, ranking first in greens hit and bogey avoidance. Also third in scrambling. T10 (Glen Oaks) and T13 (TPC Boston). Didn’t crack the top 20 in either previous appearance at Conway Farms, but he recorded 11 top 20s in 15 starts since the Masters five months ago. Not scoring per his reputation but the components are there. Ranks 16th in the FedExCup Playoffs in proximity and second in scrambling. Runner-up in only appearance here in 2015. Quieted in recent weeks but hardly scuffling with three top 20s in his last four starts. Finished T7 in proximity to the hole while posting a T18 at TPC Boston. The 2013 champ has lost his way again, but it’s not due to poor putting. He’s 28th in strokes gained: putting in the FedExCup Playoffs. T13 here in 2015 as well, so he’s a horse. Coming to life at a great time. Validated a T4 at Sedgefield with a T6 at TPC Boston. Ranked second in strokes gained: putting en route to a T10 at the 2015 BMW Championship. The streaky 35-year-old is fresh off a confidence-building T10 at TPC Boston. It ended a spell without a top 30 at six straight starts. T28 (2013) and T19 (2015) at Conway Farms. Power Rankings: BMW Championship RANK PLAYER COMMENT Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Kisner and Webb Simpson will be among the notables included in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. Zach Johnson came from behind to prevail in 2013 and Jason Day cruised to a wire-to-wire title in 2015 at the BMW Championship at Conway Farms, but the Tom Fazio design also is remembered as the site of Jim Furyk’s 59 (with a bogey) in the second round of 2013. Yet, the field averaged 70.811 in its first look as compared to 69.489 in its return. Comparably, the 2015 field missed more fairways (63.72 percent vs. 66.73 percent in 2013), but it stacked up better on average in an array of scoring measurements: • Green in Regulation: 66.26 percent (vs. 62.94 percent in 2013) • Proximity to the Hole: 32 feet, one inch (vs. 33 feet, four inches) • Birdie-or-Better Conversion Percentage: 33.98 percent (vs. 30.24 percent) • Scrambling: 64.02 percent (vs. 59.90 percent) Rain softened Conway Farms in 2015, but not to the extent that anyone would have foreseen such a measurable drop in scoring on the par 35-36=71. So, with little chance of rain until Sunday during this week’s tournament, this year’s scoring average should land in between the two in the books. Daytimes highs in the mid-to-upper 70s are forecast. Mother Nature’s greatest challenge figures to be a moderate wind mid-tournament. Since Conway Farms hosted in 2015, several areas of the course were upgraded, many of which to improve drainage. The only change in overall yardage occurred at the par-5 18th hole, which is now up 10 yards, boosting the aggregate to 7,208 yards. Bentgrass greens are maintained at 12-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter. The longest rough is allowed to grow three-and-a-half inches. Those who advanced to the BMW Championship are not only chasing one of 30 berths into the TOUR Championship but also a carte-blanche schedule in 2017-18. In additions to exemptions already secured for finishing inside the top 70 of the FedExCup standings, the top 30 are granted exemptions into each of the first three majors in 2018 as well as spots in the first two World Golf Championships (HSBC, Mexico). The Confidence Factor on Tuesday will focus on specific statistics to identify would-be contenders as well as list all results of golfers in the field who competed at Conway Farms in 2013 and/or 2015. ROB BOLTON’S WRITING SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week’s event. Look for the following columns this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Reshuffle, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, The Confidence Factor, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done THURSDAY: Ownership Percentages in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and One & Done presented by SERVPRO * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.
Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa are both off to a good start in Dublin, Ohio, while Bubba Watson is having a disastrous round.
Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau pulled out of the event late Thursday with a shoulder injury, but he hopes to play in next week’s British Open.
