ESPN predictions on who’ll win the 2021 PGA Championship

As it concerns versions of the Power Rankings, most follow a tried-and-true template with the only obvious variation applied to how many golfers are included. A portion of this Power Rankings for the Charles Schwab Challenge is unique; well, unless you read it loyally over the last five years. RELATED: Play Pick ‘Em Live | The First Look | Inside the Field Ages and number of appearances for each of the 15 projected contenders ranked open the capsules. (You’ll see the same leadoffs in Sleepers and Draws and Fades.) It’s definitely different, but if it seems silly, what transpired last year proved the point of the exercise. Detail on that, how Colonial Country Club tests and more below. POWER RANKINGS: CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Webb Simpson, Colonial CC member Ryan Palmer, defending champion Jason Kokrak and other previous winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge will be among the notables reviewed in Draws and Fades. When considering which tournaments are the easiest to predict, the Charles Schwab Challenge is at the top beside the Masters. (However, given how the first major of the year has evolved in three spins since its November edition of 2020, it may no longer require the apprenticeship that generates expectations. More on that another time.) The construct of an invitational limited to 120 golfers helps, but next week’s Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, also host to 120 on the only course that’s ever hosted it (Muirfield Village), doesn’t follow a familiar script. Get a load of this… The last 19 winners in advance of the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge had an average age of 36 and had logged an average of six starts at Colonial prior to their first victory on the course. Last year, in what was his seventh appearance and within one week after his 36th birthday, Jason Kokrak prevailed. Remember, this Power Rankings already was citing both ages and total appearances. All Kokrak did was follow the instruction. (The specific time frame of the last 19 winners before Kokrak dates back to the year after Sergio Garcia broke through in 2001. He’s both the most recent first-time PGA TOUR winner at Colonial and the most recent to win his first appearance.) Settling for finding the dartboard with a winner often defines the acceptable, but Kokrak split the arrow. Although there is a spectrum with two endpoints for just about everything, and despite how it shook out last year, no process of prognostication can rely solely on such basic variables, but the historic track in Fort Worth, Texas, caters to all skill sets, so attributes that underscore experience, like age and total appearances, are elevated. Colonial is a stock par 70 that tips at 7,209 yards as it has since 2016. The 2021 scoring average of 70.208 landed within the cone of expectations, while it also reflected stronger winds in the first and final rounds. Bentgrass greens average just 5,000 square feet, and they could reach 13 feet on the Stimpmeter, so approaches from bermuda rough, which could be as high as three inches, need to be precise. Last year’s field averaged 7.90 (of 14) fairways hit, about 11 greens in regulation per round and three par breakers after hitting GIR. That slotted Colonial within the third-hardest in all three of those measurements among all courses during the super season of 2020-21. It’s never easy but Kokrak made it seem that way. He ranked eighth in distance of all drives, fourth in accuracy off the tee, first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, second in GIR, 10th in proximity to the hole and second in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also checked up seventh in SG: Putting and fifth in putting: birdies-or-better. Kokrak also finished T12 in par-5 scoring. The pair of par 5s – Nos. 1 and 11 – annually ranks among the toughest sets of all courses, but that’s primarily due to the 635-yard 11th hole. Just two years ago, it was the eighth-hardest in relation to par on the course. Last year, it was fourth-easiest and Kokrak played it in bogey-free 2-under. He won by two strokes. Overall scoring this week also should align with history, at least until the weekend. Wet weather will give way to a dry opening round on what could be receptive turf for low scores. Winds also will be light until the machine starts cranking on Friday afternoon. Come Saturday and Sunday, daytime highs likely will eclipse 90 degrees and gusts could exceed 30 mph. It has the makings of how the 36-hole leader’s score in relation to par could stand up for victory. So, once again, wisdom and experience in the conditions should factor. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous perspectives. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Draws and Fades WEDNESDAY: Pick ’Em Preview SUNDAY: Medical Extensions, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Rookie Ranking * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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FORT WORTH, Texas – It was Sunday afternoon, and Tony Finau was not happy. He had just ended a disappointing PGA Championship with a 9-over 79, tying the worst score in a single round in his PGA TOUR career. His T-64 finish was also surprising, given that he had top-10 results in four of the five previous majors. The critical issue was on the greens. Finau was frustrated with his putting at Bethpage Black, where he ranked 125th in Strokes Gained: Putting. It was the breaking point of a recent stretch of poor putting, and so Finau decided that night to make a seemingly drastic change. “I needed to switch something,� he said. Enter the claw grip. On Thursday, three holes into his opening round of the Charles Schwab Challenge, Finau stood over a birdie putt just under 20 feet. It was the start of Colonial’s Horrible Horseshoe, the three-hole stretch (Nos. 3, 4 and 5) that is among the toughest on TOUR. Finau drilled the putt. At the par-4 seventh, he rolled in a 19-footer. Then on consecutive holes after the turn, he made birdie from 24-1/2 feet (at the 12th) and 27 feet (at the 13th). Then, just for good measure, he saved par at the par-3 16th with a 20-foot putt from the fringe after a poor chip from the other side of the green. In all, he made just under 138 feet of putts with his flatstick Thursday, which explains why he shot a 6-under 64 to grab the early lead. Suffice to say, the change to the claw paid immediate dividends. “It’s something that I’ve kind of been thinking,� said Finau, who entered this week ranked T-100 in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. “It’s an itch I wanted to scratch … To me, it was just perfect time. … If I feel like something is better, I’m not afraid to change, no matter the results.� In truth, the move to the claw may not be as dramatic as it seemed. Finau said he often has practiced with the claw in order to make sure his left hand is in the proper position. “I’m left-hand dominant when I roll the stick,� he explained. “I used to putt cross-handed for about five years. Been putting conventionally now for a couple years. “But I just wanted to switch it up. I haven’t been putting great … Standing over the ball, the most important thing is, do you feel like you’re going to make the putt or not? Outside of everything else, do you believe you can make the putt? … “I wanted to try something difference, and it felt great out there today.� A tight shot-maker’s course like Colonial can sometimes be frustrating for bombers, but Finau was not about to dial back one of his most lethal clubs. He said he stayed with driver off most tees, hitting iron just once and 4-wood another time. Although he found just as many fairway bunkers as he did fairways (three of each), most of his misses were in the short cut. Left with some good lies, he hit 16 of 18 greens – and then took advantage with his putter. Of course, the question now is whether the claw grip will continue to work for him this week. If nothing else, his outlook is much brighter than it was a few days ago.

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