Emergency 9: Fantasy golf advice from Round 4 of the Wells Fargo Championship

In retrospect, maybe we should have anticipated Scottie Scheffler’s PGA TOUR Player of the Year season. After all, Scheffler backed up Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year honors in 2019 with the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year award the following season. He played well enough in 2021 to get a captain’s pick on the U.S. Ryder Cup team that beat Europe in the fall, even before his first PGA TOUR victory. He was clearly on an upward trajectory, but his four-month flurry of highlights still came as a shock. Let’s look back at Scheffler’s rapid rise – and analyze what’s changed about his performances since the early summer. Scottie’s spring ascent On the morning of Super Bowl Sunday, 2022, Scheffler was inarguably the best player in the world without a PGA TOUR win yet to his credit. At 15th in the Official World Golf Ranking, his WM Phoenix Open playoff victory over Patrick Cantlay that day made him the highest-ranked American player in OWGR history at the time of his first PGA TOUR title (a record broken later in the season by Will Zalatoris, ranked 14th). That win marked the beginning of one of the most dominant runs seen on TOUR in recent years. Not even one month after he won in Phoenix, Scheffler captured the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, and three weeks after winning at Bay Hill, Scheffler rose to number one in the World Ranking with his victory at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. The 42 days between Scheffler’s first win and his claim on the No. 1 ranking was by far the fastest ascent ever seen on the PGA TOUR or DP World Tour. The run hit its crescendo when he won the Masters Tournament two weeks later. Scheffler was excellent through the bag on the way to his first major win, ranking in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach, and Around the Green. He was in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting, too, until his four-putt on the final green. Scheffler now had four wins on the season, the first winner of the green jacket to reach that number on the PGA TOUR since Arnold Palmer in 1960. What fueled his rise Scheffler had been well above average in the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season, ranking 32nd in scoring average and 33rd in Strokes Gained: Total. His red-hot spring of ’22 owed to a few dramatic improvements. Scheffler ranked 45th in greens in regulation and 83rd in Strokes Gained: Approach per round in 2020-21. Solid, but not spectacular. By the end of May, he had vaulted to 13th in SG: Approach and a lofty 3rd in rate of greens hit. His improved wedge play was a significant change, as well. In 2020-21, Scheffler ranked 157th on the PGA TOUR in average proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards away. On June 1, he was up exactly 100 spots in that statistic – to 57th. The differential meant he went from being one foot farther away than the average PGA TOUR player’s approach from that range – to one foot closer. As if these improvements weren’t enough, he got better on the greens, too. In each of his first two full seasons on TOUR, Scheffler had hovered right around the statistical baseline for Strokes Gained: Putting among qualified players. He was at -0.05 strokes per round in 2020, and +0.02, in 2021. But in his 10 starts from February through May, Scheffler gained more than half-a-stroke on the field, per round, on the greens. In his victory in Phoenix, Scheffler ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, one of just three times in his entire PGA TOUR career where he ranked in the top 10 in a tournament field in that statistic. The story since then Scheffler hasn’t maintained the pace he enjoyed in the spring, but still has recorded four top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts. And he’s improved in one big marker. From February through May, he averaged 1.32 Strokes Gained: Ball Striking per round and hit 70.9% of his greens in regulation. Since then, he’s averaged 1.70 strokes per round striking it and hit a sterling 74.1% of greens in regulation. That’s the good news. You can probably deduce what the bad will be at this point: His putting numbers have dropped off significantly. Since June 1, Scheffler is losing more than one-third of a stroke to the field per round on the greens, a rate that ranks 143rd of 180 qualified players in that span. Specifically, it’s been the shorter putts that just aren’t falling like they were in the spring. From February through May, Scheffler made 61.2% of his putts from 5-10 feet. Since then, he’s fallen off to 45% – well beneath the TOUR average make rate of 56.3% from that range. Things are looking up, though. After some typical autumn tinkering with his gear, Scheffler put the Scotty Cameron putter he used for all four of his wins last season back in the bag over the weekend at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. The result was the lowest final-round score of his PGA TOUR career (62) and his fewest putts per green in regulation for any single PGA TOUR event (1.60) in 17 months. At the Cadence Bank Houston Open last year Scheffler ranked 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in a runner-up finish. If he’s rediscovered his magic on the greens, it could be a very happy homecoming this week for the affable Texan.

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PALM HARBOR, Fla. – What a difference a few days can make. On Monday, Corey Conners made an unsuccessful attempt to qualify for the Valspar Championship. He was leading the tournament when he walked off the course Thursday afternoon. Conners’ 71 on Monday at Southern Hills Plantation in nearby Brooksville, Florida, was six shots too high to earn a spot in this week’s PGA TOUR stop, but the rookie learned later that day that he got in the Valspar field after another player withdrew. Conners made five birdies and just one bogey on a difficult day at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Cool, breezy conditions played to the strengths of the Canadian who attended college at Ohio’s Kent State, where he was teammates with PGA TOUR winner Mackenzie Hughes. “I don’t overpower it, but everything is really solid,� Conners said. “I definitely like the challenge and like golf courses that put a premium on the fairway and hitting the green.� He missed just four fairways Thursday, but his short game saved him several times as he hit just 11 greens. “It was a lot of tap-in pars and made some birdies,� said Conners, who needed just 24 putts Thursday, ranks 133rd in the FedExCup. He has made the cut in nine of 10 starts this season, but hasn’t finished better than T29. He was a two-time U.S. Amateur semifinalist (2013, ’14), losing to Gunn Yang in the 2014 final. OBSERVATIONS Rory McIlroy’s struggles continued Thursday at the Valspar Championship. He three-putted the last hole for 74, his fifth consecutive over-par round. It’s the first time since April 2010 that McIlroy has had more than four consecutive over-par rounds on TOUR. He’s 12-over par in his past five rounds. He didn’t hole a birdie putt Thursday. His lone birdie was a holed bunker shot on his 16th hole. Some big names struggled down the stretch Thursday. Patrick Reed, who lost a playoff to Jordan Spieth here in 2015, reached 4 under with four holes remaining, but played Nos. 15-18 in 4 over par. Sergio Garcia was 3 under par with six holes remaining, but played his final six holes in 2 over to shoot 70. Adam Scott, who played alongside Garcia, also reached 3 under on his back nine before signing for a 70. Scott took his first lesson from instructor George Gankas, an Instagram sensation with more than 92,000 followers. Chris Couch, who’s making his first PGA TOUR start since 2012, shot 71. The 44-year-old birdied his first hole, then made 16 consecutive pars before bogeying the 18th. He has four events to earn $311,662 to retain exempt status for the remainder of the season. Steve Stricker, who picked up his first PGA TOUR Champions victory last week at the Cologuard Classic, opened the Valspar Championship with a 1-under 70.

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Lexi Thompson birdied five of the first seven holes for a 7-under 65 and leads after the first round of the LPGA Tour’s CME Group Tour Championship.

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