Emergency 9: Fantasy golf advice for the Honda Classic

An in-form Tony Finau and a hungry Justin Thomas are the early favorites with bettors amongst an elite field in this week’s Hero World Challenge at Albany in the Bahamas hosted by Tiger Woods. While the PGA TOUR’s next full-field event comes in January, that doesn’t mean golf betting has to wait until then. The limited field of 20 is stacked with 16 of the top 21 in the Official World Golf Rankings, with the final four players all inside the top 33. Woods was originally scheduled to play but withdrew earlier in the week due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. When it comes to wagering on the winner, bettors seem to be looking at a combination of history at this event and current form. As of Tuesday at the BetMGM online sportsbook, Thomas (+1200) and Finau (+900) were two of the most popular players. Finau has the biggest handle (14.6%) on the second-most tickets (10.2%), while Thomas has the second-biggest handle (11%) on the most tickets (12%). Thomas finished T5 at the event a year ago, highlighted by a final-round 64, and also finished T5 in 2019 (the 2020 event was canceled due to COVID-19) to be a combined 27-under at Albany in his last two starts. He has played once since being part of the victorious U.S. Presidents Cup team, finishing T40 at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina in October. Finau was the runner-up in 2018 despite giving up a seven-shot advantage after the opening round, and also finished in the top 10 in the last two iterations of the event. He’s won three PGA TOUR events in his last seven starts, including his most recent effort at the Cadence Bank Houston Open. Albany typically gives up tons of birdies, and these two players make plenty of them. Thomas finished third a year ago on TOUR in birdie average (4.58 per round), while Finau was 11th (4.22). Current Handle & Tickets Handle Tony Finau – 14.6% Justin Thomas – 11% Tom Kim – 9.8% Xander Schauffele – 9.6% Cameron Young – 8.6% Tickets Justin Thomas – 12% Tony Finau – 10.2% Scottie Scheffler – 8.8% Jon Rahm – 7.7% Xander Schauffele – 7.2% Jon Rahm is the betting favorite at +500, but he’s only pulling in 7.7% of the tickets and 6.7% of the handle. This is despite the fact he won the event in 2018 and was runner up in 2019. Xander Schauffele (+1100) is another popular pick. He finished T-12 a year ago and T-10 in 2019. Lastly, Tom Kim (+1800) and Cameron Young (+2000), who are making their tournament debuts, are also in the top five in terms of handle. * Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. BetMGM is available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY only. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Paid in free bets. Free bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Minimum deposit required. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, DC, LA, NV, WY, VA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (IN, NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), call or text the Tennessee REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN) or call 1-888-777-9696 (MS). Sports betting is void where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org

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2023 Fortinet Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Max Homa (T1, -12, 40.1%) 2. Danny Willett (T1, -12, 18.4%) 3. Justin Lower (T3, -10, 6.8%) 4. Byeong Hun An (T3, -10, 6.4%) 5. Sahith Theegala (T5, -8, 4.2%) 6. Matt Kuchar (T5, -8, 3.7%) 7. Taylor Moore (T5, -8, 3.5%) 8. Robby Shelton (T8, -7, 1.0%) 9. Tom Hoge (T16, -5, 0.9%) 10. Ben Martin (T8, -7, 0.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Danny Willett +4.1 Around the Green: Dylan Wu +2.4 Approach the Green: Trey Mullinax +3.4 Off-the-tee: Austin Eckroat +2.4 Total: Danny Willett +7.9 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Fortinet Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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