Dustin Johnson wins the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup

The Teddy Bear Trap? The launch of the Florida Swing is supposed to coincide with gusts of wind that separate the mettle from the meek, but The Honda Classic is forecast to be contested under tame conditions for once. Whether Camilo Villegas’ tournament record of 13-under 267 at PGA National’s Champion Course – a stock par 70 – is in jeopardy remains to be seen, but it’s a reasonable target. For more on how PGA National usually plays, what’s new on the course this year and much more, scroll past the ranking. Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo, Charl Schwartzel, Jason Dufner and Puerto Rico Open champion Martin Trainer will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. Every course requires a level of shotmaking in the context of the strike itself and/or its timing during the competition. Then there’s PGA National. It presents nothing but pressure essentially throughout the entire walk of 7,125 yards. Its scoring average last year landed at 72.303, highest in relation to par of all non-majors in the last two completed seasons. It also was a seven-year high for the course. Furthermore, PGA National has been the most difficult par 70 among all non-majors in four of the last six seasons. As noted at the top, that’s because the wind is usually howling. When Villegas prevailed in 2010, breezes were sustained at 10-20 mph throughout. In fact, he’s an outlier. His margin of victory of five strokes equaled the tournament record first established by Jack Nicklaus at Inverrary in 1977. That convenient truth brings us back to PGA National, a track with Nicklaus’ paws all over it. It includes renovation and enlargement of all 18 greens. The putting surfaces are still TifEagle bermuda, but it’s new grass in advance of this week’s edition. Meanwhile, greens on average now measure approximately 7,000 square feet, an increase of more than 25 percent. In theory, bigger targets assist in battling the wind, but with relatively calm conditions expected, hole locations and green speeds will have to play greater roles in defending the course. Undulating greens are prepped to touch 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, but they may not hit that mark until the weekend since midweek rain and storms will soften all turf. Daytime highs around 80 degrees will accompany humid air. The Bear Trap, as it’s dubbed officially, consists of the par-3 15th hole, the par-4 16th and the par-3 17th, the last of which is now only 175 yards, down 15 yards since last year thanks to an updated and adjusted tee box. Of 204 par 3s played during the 2017-18 season, No. 17 was the hardest at +0.533 strokes to par; No. 15 slotted third-hardest at +0.391. And with No. 16 ranking T36 among 551 par 4s, all three holes finished inside the top-50 hardest holes on TOUR all season. None had cracked that bubble since both par 3s in 2011. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done THURSDAY: Champions One & Done * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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The TOUR leaves Kiawah Island, and so does Phil Mickelson with his sixth major title. The TOUR travels from the historic 2021 PGA Championship to the storied Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The course will play as a par 70, measuring 7,209 and will be putt on bentgrass greens. There are 121 players in the field, and the standard top 65 and ties make the cut. The Charles Schwab Challenge was the first tournament back after the COVID-19 shut down last season. Daniel Berger (+1800, $10,000) is your defending champion. STRATEGY The field moves back to its usual field size of 121 golfers after seeing its most robust group of 156 golfers in 2020, with every player on TOUR looking to get back to action post-COVID-19 shut down. The slimmer field will host some of the best golfers in the world like Justin Thomas (+1000, $11,000), Jordan Spieth (+850, $11,200), Tony Finau (+1600, $9,600), Justin Rose (+3300, $8,900), Collin Morikawa (+1400, $10,500), Abraham Ancer (+1400, $9700) and Patrick Reed (+1800, $10,300). With close to 54% or more of players potentially making the weekend, this week should result in one of the highest percentages of lineups having all six golfers make the cut. Colonial Country Club has been one of the longest-tenured courses on the PGA TOUR, with this being its 76th season hosting a tournament. Colonial isn’t known for playing difficult like the Ocean Course, but it’s been ranked inside the top-10 in difficulty scoring relative to par over the past few years. Like last week, the winds can cause havoc at Colonial. The tournaments held in 2012, 2014 and 2019 all recorded either higher than average or severe wind conditions, with the winning score averaging around 12-under. We’ve seen close to 20% of rounds over the previous four years register very windy conditions. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, making any wayward tee shots challenging to recover from if the golfers find trouble. The greens are below average in size, measuring 5,000 square feet, but the average greens in regulation (GIR) hit here is close to the TOUR average. Initially, we would think that smaller greens result in a smaller percentage of GIR, but it doesn’t. Over the previous five years, the highest distribution of approach shots has come from 125 to 175 yards, which are relatively easy scoring opportunities for these guys. Similar to other traditional layouts on TOUR, like Pete Dye’s Harbour Town Golf Links and TPC Sawgrass, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green will be the predominant statistic that will lead to success. DraftKings scoring will need to come from a massive amount of birdies, with one of the lowest eagle rates on TOUR. Also, with nine par 4s measuring under 450 yards, rostering golfers who rank high in shorter par 4s should take precedent over golfers who aren’t succeeding on these holes. This classical course layout lends itself to all types of golfers. Kevin Na (+6600; $8,400) can win with an impeccable short game, while Rose can do it with tremendous ball-striking, shooting 20-under, gaining 10.2 strokes with his irons, and four strokes Off-the-Tee. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Joaquin Niemann (+2500 to Win, $9,300 on DraftKings) When we’re back on bentgrass, we should be backing the Chilean sensation, who ranks 20th in approach over the previous 24 rounds. Niemann has only lost strokes with his irons in one tournament out of his past 11 and has played well on shorter courses like Colonial, finishing fifth at the RBC Heritage in 2020 and second at this year’s Sony Open at Waialae CC. Chris Kirk (+6600 to Win, $7,600 on DraftKings) Kirk is just 10 spots behind Niemann at 30th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the same timeframe but ranks the highest out of anyone in the field in Par 4 efficiency from 400 to 450 yards over the previous 24 rounds. On courses at or below 7,200 yards, Kirk ranks 27th in putting and eighth in birdies gained over his last two dozen rounds. Like Niemann, Kirk has been great on these shorter, classical courses, finishing seventh at the RBC Heritage and second at the Sony Open this year. Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details! Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. 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PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. – Dustin Johnson is only the co-leader entering the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. But given his track record at this event, it’s easy to tag him as Sunday’s heavy favorite. After all, he’s won twice at Pebble Beach. Since then, he’s finished top-5 on four occasions. In his 2009 win, he was the 54-hole leader and never had to play another hole due to weather issues that wiped out the final round. A year later, he was the 54-hole co-leader with Paul Goydos by four strokes and won despite shooting a 2-over 74. Of course, he led after 54 holes at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, and you may recall what happened that Sunday – a collapse of epic proportions. That’s really a moot point, though. Johnson’s different now, a more well-rounded player, significantly improved in all facets of the game. Consequently, he’s become the world’s best player. So while he’s tied with Ted Potter Jr. at 14 under, DJ will carry the biggest target at Pebble Beach. He also knows the vibe will change from the first three days of fun during the three-course pro-am rotation. It’s now all business on Sunday. Fewer celebrity amateurs, more grinding. “Sunday you start focusing just a little bit more,� said Johnson, who unfortunately won’t have his amateur partner by his side. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky had to withdraw, taking the duo out of team contention. “Probably should have had a little bit more focus today maybe, but I still got it around OK.� Indeed, Johnson was threatening to put away this tournament early on Saturday. Fueled by three birdies and an eagle, he was 16 under through seven holes and leading by three shots. But the tricky windy conditions at Pebble Beach caught up to him, as did the red-hot Potter, who was on 59 watch for most of his round at Monterey Peninsula. Potter dropped back with two late bogeys, and so did Johnson, who bogeyed three of his first eight holes after the turn before tying Potter with a birdie at the 18th. DJ eventually settled for a 2-under 70. Consequently, the rest of the field breathed a sigh of relief, knowing they have less ground to make up Sunday. Jason Day and Troy Merritt are the closest pursuers at 12 under, with Jon Rahm, Steve Stricker and Patrick Rodgers another shot back. Plus, warned four-time AT&T Pebble Beach winner Phil Mickelson, Pebble Beach doesn’t always favor the front-runner (although it has lately, with the leader/co-leader winning four times in the last five years). “A lot of times the winner has come from the group or two ahead of the leaders,� Mickelson said after his even-par 72 left him at 9 under and within striking distance. “With the conditions being as tough as they are, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens again.� The key likely will come down to which player best negotiates the winds that are once again expected to make an impact Sunday. From that standpoint, Johnson probably has an advantage over Potter, who played Pebble Beach in the first round and shot 68 in benign conditions. By playing Pebble on Saturday, Johnson saw the course as it will likely play on Sunday. While Potter can’t match DJ’s track record at Pebble Beach, he does have some unfinished business here. He was the co-leader with Brandt Snedeker after 36 holes in 2013 before finishing T-16. Potter’s lone TOUR win is the 2012 The Greenbrier Classic, coming in the 16th start of his TOUR career. Since then, he’s made 63 starts with two top-10s, both coming in 2013. “I haven’t been in contention too much, really,� said the lefthander. “I’ve had some good tournaments, but I need to get there more often to get comfortable there. “But tomorrow will be a good test for me and to see how it goes. I’ve been working on my swing and trying to get everything right there, and the swing’s getting to the point where I feel good about it. Now it’s just getting comfortable playing at a high level.� DJ, of course, already has that comfort level, especially at Pebble Beach. In his last nine rounds on this iconic course, he’s a combined 32 under, posting sub-par scores each time. On Sunday, he’ll seek his 18th TOUR win while hoping to put more distance between himself and everybody else in the world rankings. “All in all, the game’s pretty sharp,� Johnson said. “I feel like it’s in really good form going into tomorrow.� Sounds like he’s ready to win again at Pebble Beach.

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