Draws and Fades: RBC Canadian Open

2022 WM Phoenix Open, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -0.31 strokes per round Morning wave: +0.32 Afternoon wave: -0.95 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 68 players at -1 or better (T43) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 1 under par: 38.0% 2. 2 under par: 34.7% 3. E: 14.1% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Jon Rahm (T8, -4, 16.2%) 2. Justin Thomas (T8, -4, 9.1%) 3. Patrick Cantlay (T8, -4, 8.4%) 4. Sahith Theegala (1, -7, 5.0%) 5. Louis Oosthuizen (T8, -4, 4.8%) 6. Xander Schauffele (T8, -4, 4.6%) 7. Kyounghoon Lee (2, -6, 4.3%) 8. Hideki Matsuyama (T18, -3, 4.1%) 9. Brooks Koepka (T3, -5, 3.8%) 10. Bubba Watson (T8, -4, 3.8%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the WM Phoenix Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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There will be plenty of star power this week as THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT will welcome a handful of Ryder Cup stars to the limited field. The Summit Club – another of Las Vegas’ top-tier tracks – will host after last year’s event at Shadow Creek. Jason Kokrak, who captured his first TOUR title in nine years in 2020, then went on to win again later last season, returns to defend. FIELD NOTES: The European and American Ryder Cup teams will be well represented at The Summit Club… Europeans Tommy Fleetwood, Ian Poulter, Tyrrell Hatton (who finished tied for third last season at THE CJ CUP), Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry and Paul Casey will play, as will Americans Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Harris English, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka… Koepka won the event in 2018 while Thomas is a two-time winner… The field is limited to the top 60 from the prior season’s FedExCup points list plus sponsor exemptions… Those exemptions went to Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Jason Day, Justin Rose and international stars Minkyu Kim and Rasmus Hojgaard. FEDEXCUP: Winner receives 500 FedExCup points. COURSE: The Summit Club, par 72, 7,431 yards. Designed by Tom Fazio, the layout is nestled between the Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area and the Las Vegas Strip. Golfers get an unobstructed view of the Strip from the tee on No. 6 – one of a handful of scoreable holes on the front side. The course isn’t a typical desert layout, and in fact it will play more like a lush parkland course with a desert background that features strong bunkering and signature Tom Fazio green complexes. STORYLINES: Jason Day returns to THE CJ CUP after withdrawing in the final round a year ago. Day was in the mix through 54 holes but hurt his neck during warm-up and pulled out after just two holes… Collin Morikawa is a member of The Summit Club and has shot a 62 at the course. The Ryder Cup rookie went 3-0-1 at Whistling Straits and is looking to continue that momentum at home… Along with Morikawa, Adam Scott, Charley Hoffman (both went to UNLV) and Maverick McNealy (lives in Las Vegas) are a handful of golfers with Vegas connections… This is the second TOUR event in a row in Las Vegas after the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin… Justin Thomas won two of the three CJ CUPs in South Korea and looks to carry his momentum from Asia to the United States with his new caddie – Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay – on the bag. 72-HOLE RECORD: 267, Brooks Koepka (2018) | At The Summit Club (N/A) 18-HOLE RECORD: 62, Ryan Palmer (Fourth round, 2018) | At The Summit Club (N/A) LAST TIME: Jason Kokrak shot 8-under 64 – the round of the week – to capture THE CJ CUP at Las Vegas’ Shadow Creek by two shots. It was Kokrak’s first PGA TOUR title, coming after nine years and 233 starts on TOUR. Xander Schauffele birdied three of his opening five holes, but Kokrak birdied five of his opening eight. When Schauffele couldn’t get up and down from greenside rough on 16 – and Kokrak did from a greenside bunker – it opened up enough separation between the two for Kokrak to get one hand on the trophy. He added a birdie on the 72nd hole to lock it up. Tyrrell Hatton and Russell Henley tied for third. Talor Gooch rounded out the top five. HOW TO FOLLOW: Television: Thursday-Sunday, 5 p.m.-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday-Friday, 10:15 a.m.-8 p.m. (Featured Groups). Radio: Thursday-Friday, 2 p.m.-8 p.m. Saturday-Sunday, 3 p.m.-8 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com/liveaudio).

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Here are nine tidbits from the first round of the CareerBuilder Challenge that gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. Be looking for the Emergency 9 shortly after the close of play of each round of the tournament. Know Thy Enemy These were the top 10 picked golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. It might not be time to panic just yet with a 54-hole cut but thankfully for some of you, substitutions are allowed in this game! Remember, this week’s ONLY METRIC is scoring! With all three courses playing less than 7,200 yards and all to par 72, there should be plenty of it. Course and Weather Management The talk of the event today was how perfect the weather was and how gusty it is going to be on Friday. Thankfully in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO substitutions are part of game. With three courses in play, it’s time to avoid the hardest of the bunch, the Stadium Course. The Tournament Course and La Quinta have been by far the easier of the bunch the last two seasons with the new rotation and today wasn’t any different. At one point La Quinta Country Club was playing a staggering four shots under-par this afternoon. Only five of the top 41 today were playing the Stadium Course. If you’re at a crossroads about who to stick into your lineup, La Quinta is the tiebreaker! Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition! Well, yes gamers did! As noted above, 68 percent of the folks playing PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO this week have Jon Rahm on their roster. The Spaniard fired 62 (-10) at La Quinta and affirmed his love for desert courses that he acquired during his four years at Arizona State. The dots kept connecting as he won the DP World Championship in November in Dubai. He’s the No. 3 player in the OWGR and is performing like it!  Oasis Those of you who have been riding the Brian Harman Express have noticed that the train car is getting fuller by the week! Those who have been late to the party and have bought a ticket this week won’t be disappointed after Thursday. The man with five consecutive finishes inside the top eight opened with a breezy 65 (-7) at La Quinta to sit T9 after round one. Normal service continues. #NappyFactor The debate rages on and you’ll read more about it in Study Hall down the page! Martin Piller’s wife, Gerina, is 25 weeks along with baby No. 1. She’s walking in the gallery this week as her hubby looks for TOUR win No. 1. He co-leads the field in birdies as he circled half of his holes on the Tournament Course. Piller has won three times on the Web.com Tour with totals of 18, 26 and 28-under par. He’s not afraid to make birdies! Low Net Even though only five players of the top 41 began on the Stadium Course, I’m keeping my eye on two who ended the day inside the top 10. Take a bow, Nick Watney and Grayson Murray! They both posted 65 (-7) and get to take on La Quinta, the easiest course in the rotation, tomorrow. Posting rounds this low and being only three back should give them both an excellent foundation to add to before returning to the Stadium Course on Sunday. Past Champion Problems Two-time winners Phil Mickelson and Bill Haas aren’t helping the desert historians feel any confidence after the first round. Mickelson could only manage 70 at La Quinta after starting three-under-par through his first five holes. Haas threw up an even par 72 at the Stadium Course and checks in at T125 in a field of now 155. Remember, these are two guys who have feasted in the desert over the years. Yikes. Fish or Cut Bait? As is the case EVERY SINGLE WEEK ON TOUR, there are big names that don’t fire in the opening round. This week is a bit different as the cut is 54-holes and two of the three courses are some of the easiest on TOUR. The question is even more difficult to answer as 2014 champion Patrick Reed, 10th-most selected above, posted 74 (+2) at the Tournament Course in his season debut. His reward is playing the Stadium Course tomorrow in gusty conditions…Bubba Watson was the 11th-most selected and just missed out on the chart above. His 70 today at La Quinta will make gamers think twice tomorrow as he’ll begin T88. Study Hall Brandt Snedeker returned to TOUR action this week after battling a sternum joint injury. His comeback was derailed overseas as he WD from the Indonesian Masters with heat exhaustion. His even-par 72 on the Tournament Course leaves his T125 with a trip to the Stadium Course Friday…Brandon Hagy withdrew Wednesday night with a wrist injury and was replaced by Rick Lamb…Corey Pavin withdrew after 17 holes with a neck injury for those of you keeping an eye on PGA TOUR Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO…No bogeys in an opening round 69 (-3) for Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood pegged all 18 greens in Abu Dhabi… Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen are tied for the lead (66) while Pat Perez (70) is T-29 at the Singapore Open. 

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