Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Dissecting the FedExCup chances of Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and others

Dissecting the FedExCup chances of Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and others

With the season’s final major championship right around the corner, only seven PGA TOUR events remain before the beginning of the lucrative FedExCup Playoffs. Several postseason stalwarts find themselves in precarious spots with less than two months to go in the Regular Season. As marquee names jockey for position down the stretch, Twenty First Group ran more than 10,000 simulations of how the rest of the PGA TOUR regular season would play out to project the likelihood of different points scenarios unfolding. The projection gives newly-minted major winner Jon Rahm the best chance at leading the FedExCup race entering THE NORTHERN TRUST (36.3%), with current FedExCup leader Patrick Cantlay right behind him (32.8%). RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup standings The math says that currently, 100 of 125 spots in the standings are projected to be taken. The most intrigue lies with the remaining 20 percent of the spots still up for grabs. Here are some of the more interesting probabilities the mathematical projections unearthed: Rickie Fowler Current FedExCup position: 114 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 73.3% Strong finishes at the PGA Championship (T8) and the Memorial Tournament (T11) moved Fowler from outside the playoff picture to firmly inside the top 125. Twenty First Group probability models now have Fowler at a better than 73 percent chance to reach the FedExCup Playoffs. Fowler’s marked recent improvement can’t just be tied to one particular statistic. Entering the PGA Championship, he was averaging +0.22 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round, and -0.39 Strokes Gained: Putting per round. In his last four starts, he’s gaining more than half-a-stroke per round in both statistics. Fowler has qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every full season he’s been on TOUR (since 2010). Chesson Hadley Current FedExCup position: 116 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.8% Hadley’s season is a perfect example of how one week can change the narrative of an entire season. The lanky TOUR veteran has missed 13 cuts in 21 starts entering this week’s John Deere Classic, but a runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship in June has him in a great position to make the FedExCup Playoffs for the fifth time in his career. More than 42% of Hadley’s FedExCup points for the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR season came that week in South Carolina. With just a few events left, can he turn an up-and-down campaign into a spot in the Playoffs? Tommy Fleetwood Current FedExCup position: 125 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 71.1% The man currently in the final qualifying spot in the standings, Tommy Fleetwood, is not in that spot due to the nature of his global schedule. On the contrary, his 15 starts this season are his most entering the month of July in his PGA TOUR career. Currently, Twenty First Group has Fleetwood at about a 71% chance to reach the Playoffs. Fleetwood has just a single top-10 finish in a stroke play event this season, a far cry from the previous three PGA TOUR seasons, when he was tenth or better in 38% of his starts. Fleetwood has not been as proficient with his driver in 2021, ranking outside the top 150 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Still, The Open Championship – where Fleetwood finished runner-up in 2019 – presents a great opportunity to accrue the points needed to lock up a playoff spot. Dylan Frittelli Current FedExCup position: 130 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 43.8% Sitting just outside the top 125 is this week’s defending champion, Dylan Frittelli. In his 2019 John Deere Classic victory, Frittelli was lights out on and around the greens, leading the field in scrambling percentage and ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting. Those are two statistics Frittelli has struggled with in 2021, as he’s ranked 114th in scrambling percentage and 186th in putting. After seven missed cuts in his last nine starts, the friendly confines of Sylvis, Illinois, might be just what the South African needs to right the ship. Charles Howell III Current FedExCup position: 131 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.1% He is one of just nine players to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs every season since its inception in 2007, but Charles Howell III has some work to do in the coming weeks if he wants to make it 15-for-15. This week’s John Deere Classic would be a good place to start a resurgence – he finished tied for sixth here in 2019 and has eight top-25 finishes in twelve previous career starts. Howell’s approach play, in particular, has betrayed him a bit this season, as he is on pace for a career-low finish in Strokes Gained: Approach (currently ranks 194th on TOUR). TPC Deere Run could be a place that turns around, through: In his last 16 rounds played at the John Deere Classic, he’s gained a strong four-tenths of a stroke on approach shots per round.

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Matt Fitzpatrick and The Country Club make magic one more timeMatt Fitzpatrick and The Country Club make magic one more time

BROOKLINE, Mass. – Matt Fitzpatrick keeps meticulous tabs on his career, charting every shot he takes, but stats can’t explain everything. Not in golf, and especially not at The Country Club. This is where Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old amateur who grew up across the street, beat two of the world’s best players at the 1913 U.S. Open. It’s where Ben Crenshaw’s 1999 Ryder Cup team trailed 10-6 and he said, “I’m a big believer in fate; I have a good feeling about tomorrow.” His words preceded a record-setting comeback by his squad. RELATED: What’s in Fitzpatrick’s bag? On Saturday night, with a share of the lead and preparing to go into the biggest round of his life, England’s normally soft-spoken Fitzpatrick, who won the 2013 U.S. Amateur at The Country Club with his kid brother, Alex, on the bag, delivered a line that was so Crenshaw-like with portent the only thing missing was the pizza shirt. “I certainly think it gives me an edge over the others, yeah,” Fitzpatrick said of the long-ago week that kick-started his career. “I genuinely do believe that.” Like Crenshaw, he was right. On the same turf where he experienced the awakening of his career, he savored another, grander victory, carding a final-round 68 to win the U.S. Open by one over Scottie Scheffler (67) and Will Zalatoris (69). It was Fitzpatrick’s first PGA TOUR win, and he becomes the 13th player and first non-American to win the U.S. Amateur and U.S. Open. He’s also the second, after Jack Nicklaus at Pebble Beach, to win both at the same course. “I love playing this golf course,” said Fitzpatrick, whose masterstroke was a birdie from just outside 48 feet at the 13th hole, eliciting a Tiger-like upper-cut amid the roars. “It suits me so well. It suits my game well. I’ve been playing well for a while, and I think it all just fell into place that this was the place it was going to happen.” Zalatoris, who lost playoffs at the Farmers Insurance Open (Luke List) and PGA Championship (Justin Thomas) earlier this season, and who also was seeking his first TOUR win, had a birdie putt on 18 to force a playoff, but it burned the left edge. Billy Foster, Fitzpatrick’s caddie who had never won a major, tugged his cap down over his face. Fitzpatrick hugged him before moving on to his mother, brother, and father. He laughed and wiped away tears. “It’s a long week,” he said. “I said to Billy going up 14, I said, ‘Billy, I hate this. This is horrible (laughter).’ And up to that point really, I’d really not missed many shots. “I can’t tell you how happy I am it’s over,” he continued, “but at the same time, I can’t tell you how happy I am, how well I’ve grinded out there and how well I played. It means so much.” Fitzpatrick’s 17 top-10s without a win were the most on TOUR since the start of the 2019-20 season. Zalatoris, with 16, now moves to the top of that list. Fitzpatrick is the first player since Danny Willett at the 2016 Masters to notch his first TOUR win at a major. Was it force of habit? Fitzpatrick has twice won the Omega European Masters in Switzerland, twice won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, and now twice won on this hallowed turf outside Boston, which grew blustery and decidedly chilly for the weekend rounds. Or was it fate? The relationship between a player and a golf course can mean more than meets the eye. Jon Rahm captured the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, the site of his first TOUR win and not far from the hiking trails where he proposed to his wife. Similarly, Fitzpatrick summoned his old magic from 2013 this week in part by staying with the same host family, Will and Jennifer Fulton, and their three kids, Sam, Annabelle and George. Susan and Russell Fitzpatrick, Matt’s parents, and kid brother Alex stayed there, too, just like nine years ago. “We each took the same bedrooms,” Susan said, adding that she, too, is a big believer in fate. Then again, there were some new wrinkles. “Matt had a chef from Sheffield who’s been with us for a couple of tournaments,” Susan said. “There’s so much work that goes into golf; I don’t think anybody quite realizes. I’m not a numbers person at all. It amazes me how he does it.” Although he had been at Brookline all week, Alex Fitzpatrick, who played for Wake Forest before turning pro – he will play in the Irish Open in two weeks – flew home on Saturday. Alas, by the time he landed in Charlotte, North Carolina, and drove 90 minutes to his off-campus pad, big brother had shot to the top of the leaderboard, tied with Zalatoris. Determined not to miss the moment, Alex woke up at 5 a.m. Sunday and flew back to Boston. “There’s two ways you could look at it, really,” he said, when asked if there was something fated about Matt Fitzpatrick and The Country Club. “At the start of the week people were expecting him to go out and win because of what happened in 2013. You could take it as pressure, who knows how it’s going to go, but he stayed calm and had a good game plan. “I didn’t think I would cry, but I ended up crying,” he added. “That’s going to look bad on TV. I’ve said for a long time he deserves one more than anyone I can think of. If I showed you how hard he works and the things he does to get better, it would blow your mind, honestly. I guess there is such thing as golf gods, but for it to happen here is extra special.” The final hurdle for Fitzpatrick, having driven into the fairway bunker on 18, was clearing the lip that had thwarted Jon Rahm the day before. He took out a 9-iron and caught the ball flush, clearing the lip and pelting the green for a two-putt par. Fitzpatrick still looks like a kid, which is to say he doesn’t look all that different from the player who won here in 2013, with the exception of the logos and maybe a few extra pounds. If you’re a certain type of dewy-eyed dreamer, you can still squint at Matt and Alex and see Ouimet and his own kid-caddie, Eddie Lowery, in 1913. But that’s certainly not how Matt Fitzpatrick would explain this week. He charted all those shots, got longer off the tee after watching others bludgeon courses into submission, and drew on the lessons learned from being in the final group Sunday at the PGA Championship last month, when he tied for fifth. That The Country Club felt like home was the final puzzle piece. Same town. Same course. Same bedroom. “Know where to hit it; know where to miss it,” he said. “Yeah, just happy to be unbeaten around this place.”

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Quick look at the Presidents CupQuick look at the Presidents Cup

MELBOURNE, Australia – The last time … well, the only time … the International Team has won the Presidents Cup was 21 years ago here at Royal Melbourne. Louis Oosthuizen was 16 years old at the time. The South African has now played on the last three losing sides, and he’s ready for a change. He thinks the perfect storm for beating Tiger Woods and his high-flying American team could happen this week. “This is probably the best chance we will have with this golf course, this crowd, and I think the way our guys are playing,â€� he said. The action starts Thursday with five Four-Ball matches. RELATED: Power Rankings | Expert Picks THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER THE FLYOVER The Composite Course at Royal Melbourne, created for the 1959 World Cup of Golf, consists of 12 holes from the West Course and six from the East Course. International Team Assistant Captain Geoff Ogilvy of Australia says the par-3 third, par-4 fourth and par-3 fifth will provide plenty of drama early in the round thanks in large part to its “crazy greens.â€� Deep bunkers guard the par 3s, and superintendent Richard Forsyth says the fourth green has the “toughest two-puttâ€� on the course. LANDING ZONE The par-4 472-yard 16th was the finishing hole on the East Course, and it could very well be the finishing hole for many of the matches this week. Tee shots ideally are down the left side, providing players the best chance to land their approaches on a steep green. “It deserves its ranking as one of the greatest finishing holes in golf,â€� Geoff Ogilvy said. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Wade Stettner: “Cool temperatures are forecast on Thursday and Friday with slightly warmer temperatures this weekend. There will be a slight chance of showers on Thursday morning and again on Saturday, but any rainfall will be very light. Southwest winds are forecast from Thursday through Sunday with the strongest winds expected on Thursday.â€� For the latest weather news from Melbourne, Australia, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK I don’t think you want to talk about losing too much. It’s like driving down the highway — you don’t want to talk about the truck that’s coming straight at you because you’ll probably drive into it. BY THE NUMBERS 40 – Presidents Cup matches played by Tiger Woods. That ties for second-most all-time with Ernie Els and Vijay Singh. Woods will break that tie and move into solo second behind Phil Mickelson’s 55 with his first match played this week. 39 – Presidents Cup matches played by Australian Adam Scott. With a minimum of two guaranteed matches, Scott will become the International Team leader in that category. 24 – Presidents Cup matches won by Tiger Woods (24-15-1). That’s second behind Phil Mickelson’s 26. 10 – Players who have gone undefeated (no halves) during a single Presidents Cup week. Just two of those 10 players were on the International side – South African Branden Grace in 2015 and Japan’s Shigeki Maruyama in 1998, the only time the Internationals have won. 5 – Players who have gone 5-0-0 during a Presidents Cup week – Grace in 2015, Jim Furyk in 2011, Tiger Woods in 2009, Maruyama in 1998 and Mark O’Meara in 1996. SCATTERSHOTS 2011 Alums: Five players who played in the 2011 Presidents Cup at Royal Melbourne are back as players this week – Americans Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson and Tiger Woods, and Internationals’ Adam Scott. Captain Ernie Els and assistants K.J. Choi and Geoff Ogilvy also played. Patrick Cantlay, making his first Presidents Cup appearance, is leaning on American assistant captain Steve Stricker for advice on Royal Melbourne. Stricker went 2-2-0 that week and beat Y.E. Yang in Singles. Said Cantley on Stricker: “I like his demeanor … I like his personality. He’s pretty mellow and low-key, and I can relate to that.â€� The Shield: Much has been made of the International Team logo that was commissioned by captain Ernie Els to give his team a more cohesive identity – especially important given that his 12 players come from nine different countries/regions. “I explained to them exactly what it entitles, what’s behind the whole thinking of how we brought the whole thing together, so they like it,â€� Els said. “… We’ve always played under the flag, but we’ve never really had our own identity so to speak.â€� Fly Factor: Monday’s hot weather brought out a lot of files, causing players and fans to do the “Aussie waveâ€� of shooing away the flies. It may not be any kind of issue, especially during windier and milder conditions, but it’s something to be aware of, particularly if a player is on his backswing. “They’re destroying me,â€� Justin Thomas said. “I had on a couple today that were on my face and wouldn’t get off. It’s definitely something I’ve never experienced.â€�

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