If you play PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, you're treated to additional strategy for the next three weeks. That's because The American Express, the Farmers Insurance Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am all are contested over multiple courses. Leveraging when to play which golfers on what courses can be valuable. RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking This week, because the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West is the toughest of the triumvirate, the objective is to avoid it as much as possible until we're all subject to it in the final round. Yes, scoring overall will be low on all three tracks, but relative to the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club, you're leaving points on the table if you don't pile up as many starts on the co-hosts as possible. In Monday's Power Rankings, I shared scoring averages on each in 2022 and provided some analysis. Remember, those are averages, so one of your benchwarmers might shoot a bogey-free 68 on the Stadium Course in R1 while one of your starters will turn in a two-bogey 70 on La Quinta, so who you play still matters. This never is only about expecting the lowest scores on the easiest tracks. Actually, that a lie. That precisely will be the plan next week at Torrey Pines where the North Course is your best friend. With the guardrails at the Amex in place, the next variable is, well, the variables. Cool air will govern ball flight for the earliest starters, but it should be in the low 50s by the time the first threesomes pierce their respective turfs. What's more, all 156 in the field start within a little over two hours of each other, and daytime highs are expected to crack 60 degrees, maybe, so conditions will be similar enough to warrant the label of statistically even. In other words, don't sweat tee times. Wind also will not be a factor, but that is not insignificant. My fantasy philosophy and advice always has been to play golfers on the easiest courses when they play their easiest. Wring every par breaker that you can from these matchups. When wind blows across properties that yield as many red numbers as these three, courses that typically are easiest become much harder than compared to how difficult the hardest courses become in the same conditions. Another way to say it is that it's more challenging for talent at this level to connect for a birdie or better than it is for the same talent to secure par. You'll find my annual tweet illustrating the course rotation, a reminder of the 54-hole cut and a link to the tee times here. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Brendon Todd (+350 for a Top 20) ... The old chestnut that shootouts are putting contests is true only if the gunslinger is hitting greens in regulation to set up the conversions. Todd might go on to lead this field in both fairways hit and numerous metrics in putting but contending for the title will require his best self with the irons. Therein lies the unknown tugging at potential value. Putting even three rounds together on as many tracks to make this cut is requiring, probably, at least one of those scores to be in the low 60s. Buckle up. DRAWS Denny McCarthy (+240 for a Top 20) ... No-brainer. We love that he plays so much, but it's most beneficial that he's so consistent. Also finally got over on history last year with a super-steady T6 in what was his fifth trip. Cam Davis (+170 for a Top 20) ... The Aussie is 3-for-3 with a solo third in his last try in 2021. He also cashed in his last six starts worldwide. If not for the sharper angle that Brendon Todd presents as the Wild Card, Davis would fill the role as a No. 16 from the Power Rankings proper à la Matt Kuchar as a Draw at Waialae last week. (Kuchar finished T7.) David Lipsky (+275 for a Top 20) ... If he didn't just finish T4 at Waialae, he'd have been among my Sleepers, so that just fortified previously laid intentions. He placed T14 in his debut here last year. Because this tournament's format isn't for everyone, and for many reasons, any success is a bonus. There's a crapshoot component to it that's very different than tournaments like THE PLAYERS Championship and The Open Championship. Kudos to everyone who thrives. They've proven more to us than a solid performance on the scoreboard. Byeong Hun An Ben Griffin K.H. Lee J.T. Poston Justin Rose Ben Taylor FADES Chris Kirk ... It's easy to be persuaded by last week's fine effort but confine it to Waialae where the solo third is his third career podium finish and second of the last three editions. He's had a pair of top 25s since 2017 at PGA West, but he missed the cut in the other three tries, so consider a prop for him to miss the cut, if available. Aaron Wise ... What do you trust? Since a T17 here in 2018, he's missed three straight cuts, but he's cashed in his last 10 starts, and several for six-figure paydays. While making this week's cut is reasonable, it also will prove that recent form is more impactful, so we'll be able to access his well again soon. The shark play is to be aggressive with him in DFS. Emiliano Grillo ... It's the smallest of sample sizes but it's not better than the alternative. His putting reversed direction in his last three starts during which he finished outside the top 40 with one missed cut. He's 2-for-3 at The American Express but with no top-35 finishes. Abstain. Rickie Fowler ... Fowler fatigue is real, but that's OK. Unless he finds the magic time and again, it's going to be impossible for him to fulfill street value. With his cachet and with a pair of leaderboard performances in the fall, there are going to be scraps, if any. At this point, because of his market saturation among fans, decisions boil down to personal preference, but even if you connected for something special, the same narrative is going to apply the next time. He's a SoCal native who's recorded a pair of top 25s here, but the advice is simply a reminder to diversify if you can't resist. Garrick Higgo Nate Lashley Sebastián Muñoz Aaron Rai Erik van Rooyen Danny Willett Odds sourced on Tuesday, January 17th at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. RETURNING TO COMPETITION Xander Schauffele ... Not that anyone ever is comfortable with withdrawing during any tournament, but you know that there are some guys for whom it's the absolute last consideration. The golf course is their battlefield and they won't go quietly. You know that he's in this category, and it permeated in his reaction to calling it quits with a sore back during his second round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, no doubt intensified by the fact that there was no cut. It was the first mid-tournament WD of his career, and it'll probably be a while before we witness another. His track record of always posting yields every bit of confidence in us to rely on him already again this week; that is, if you're keen on slotting him somewhere. He hasn't appeared since 2017 and he's 0-for-2 in his brief (albeit ancient) experience. Jhonattan Vegas ... Cited a "recurrent injury" on Twitter on Nov. 9 for his time away, but he didn't elaborate. Because he hasn't competed since the 2022 FedExCup Playoffs, he's presumably checked the box for sitting out the requisite length of time to qualify for a Major Medical Extension in 2024, if necessary, but with his firepower, bet the "no" if you find a prop bet for the possibility. (That's a joke. You won't.) He broke through for his first TOUR title at PGA West in 2011 but he's added only one top 30 since, that a T11 in 2018. Give him this chance to dust off the rust and consider him as a victim in matchups. James Hahn ... A sore neck thwarted his appearance at Waialae, but don't let it stop you from investing fractionally this week. The 41-year-old still presents pop for the kind of value that you're going to need to justify your distribution of units. If you want to be conservative, then at least don't bet against him. Lanto Griffin ... In his first action since having a microdiscectomy on July 25, he made the cut in The Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour this week. He's fully exempt on the PGA TOUR, so this is a fantastic exercise for full-season gamers to determine how quickly to consider him as a midseason pickup, where available. Grayson Murray ... The 29-year-old also made the cut on the KFT. He hasn't played since his intent to compete at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship was interrupted by a scooter crash that left him with serious injuries to his face, left hand and left knee. He's expected to play more on that circuit given his position in the Beyond 150 Reshuffle category on the PGA TOUR. NOTABLES WDs Joel Dahmen ... Had him slotted briefly in Sleepers before he exited. If assigning amateur partners were an open marketplace, he'd have a queue around the corner of them wanting to sign up to play beside and with him this week, and it doesn't hurt that he's off to a blazing start this season. Chad Ramey ... Remains in a funk after finishing last (of 38) in his debut at Kapalua and a T54 at Waialae despite a field-best-tying 64 on Sunday. Kyle Stanley ... This is his first early WD since Barbasol in 2021, but with only six starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension, the need to be certain that he's ready to perform is critical. His history at PGA West is forgettable, so it's not surprising that he opted out here. Chris Stroud ... He has only two starts left on his medical with a taller mountain to scale to retain status north of his floor in the Past Champions category, so he's going to be even choosier. He's also had a lackluster record in the Coachella Valley, so we weren't going to toss even a penny at him, anyway. Brian Gay ... This is the 10th anniversary of his victory here, but the 51-year-old is curtailing his usually rigorous schedule on the PGA TOUR in favor of the same on the PGA TOUR Champions (although he's not competing in this week's Mitsubishi Electric Championship at Hualalai). Now, he does have a T11 on the board in Bermuda, so he's 135th in the FedExCup, and he's fully exempt through this season, but leave him to spot starts on shorter tracks in our world. RECAP - Sony Open in Hawaii POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Tom Kim MC 2 Russell Henley T32 3 Jordan Spieth MC 4 Corey Conners T12 5 Brian Harman T32 6 Sungjae Im MC 7 Tom Hoge T41 8 Hideki Matsuyama T48 9 J.J. Spaun T12 10 Keegan Bradley MC 11 Keith Mitchell MC 12 Christiaan Bezuidenhout MC 13 Maverick McNealy T7 14 Alex Smalley MC 15 Taylor Montgomery T12 Wild Card Webb Simpson MC SLEEPERS Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result Andrew Putnam (+175 for a Top 20) T4 Greyson Sigg (+300 for a Top 20) T48 Robby Shelton (+350 for a Top 20) MC Kramer Hickok MC Kazuki Higa 72nd BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR January 17 ... none January 18 ... none January 19 ... Brian Harman (36); Tommy Fleetwood (32) January 20 ... Paul Haley II (35) January 21 ... none January 22 ... Zecheng Dou (26) January 23 ... none Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.
Click here to read the full article…
