Davis Riley charges up leaderboard in search of first TOUR win at Valspar Championship

So much for a favorite paying short odds at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The first-place entry was on champion Will Zalatoris at +20000! Hey, it pays to monitor the boards in real time and lock in your selection. At that point, patience and the willpower not to act are your footholds of leverage. Of course, Willy Z’s breakthrough title chased Tom Kim’s own coronation at the Wyndham Championship, and at +12500 no less. Remember, Kim opened his week with a snowman before running away to win by five. When Pick ‘Em Live launched at The Genesis Invitational, we thought that experiences like these would be uncommon, but this is golf. There is no such thing. It all plays. If you ever needed a swing thought or a caddie in your ear, it’s to continue to exploit the possibilities. As the fields shrink in the FedExCup Playoffs, it should be more challenging to hit on longer odds, but we’re going to find out if it even matters. Keep swinging your swing! Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Collin Morikawa (+2000) Since I’m unsure how much attention I’m going to be able to give this game during the tournament, I’m opening with the No. 1 in my Power Rankings. This is pretty simple. He’s coming off a very strong performance in Memphis (T5), he’s still in pursuit of his first win of the season (and first in the FedExCup Playoffs) and he devours long, unfamiliar courses. Glass … Sungjae Im (+2500) The timer on the oven went off two weeks ago and whatever is left is burning inside. T2 in the Twin Cities was followed by T2 at Wyndham and he added T12 last week. Making nothing, he painted fairways (T6) and GIR (T8), so all I need is a putter adjustment on a course where nobody has any prior knowledge! TOP 10 Glass … Lucas Herbert (+1100) The formula is simple for the long shots this week. Find the deepest bomber who makes the most putts. Every season there is a player or two who sneaks his way into the top 10, and this course and that skill set makes sense to me. On Wednesday, if necessary, shift accordingly is you can get up that early! Rob … Max Homa (+400) While we don’t have to sweat a cut this week, it was a bit frustrating not visiting an open window on the weekend last week, so I swallowed Russell Henley’s MC. I scored decently overall, so it probably cost me a top-100 finish. And I didn’t think that I was gambling! Homa is in my Power Rankings, but he’s never recorded a top 35 in the Playoffs. No doubt that’s a 0-fer that won’t last forever, so because his fit for Wilmington CC is fantastic, I’ll grab the longer odds while they’re available. I also don’t plan on worrying about the bet unlocking. Win-win; well, win-Top 10! TOP 20 Glass … Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+410) The cut-making machine is fantastic on the greens, so the bigger the greens, the better! Not much value in this category with the reduced field this week, so I’ll take a shot on one of the best putters on TOUR. Rob … J.T. Poston (+220) Like a three-point shooter who can’t miss on the hardwood, he’s been unconscious in recent weeks. Omitting the surprise start at The Open, he’s gone T2-Win-T11-T21-T20. And there were foreshocks of a T3 (Harbour Town) and T9 (TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm). Whenever I happen to catch an open window on the weekends with this bet, I tend to shop in the vicinity of this kickback but given the construct of the tournament and its smaller field, this should be of stronger value, so the plan is to set and forget. ROUND 1 LEADER Glass … Adam Scott (+4500) For the third event in a row, the Aussie has gotten off to a start in the 60s, including 66 last week. We all know he’s making the Presidents Cup regardless, but chasing a carrot to improve on last week’s T5 is the interesting angle. Hit the top 10 last week with two doubles but neither round ended up over par, so something is brewing here. He’s in the sixth of the 34 twosomes on Thursday – everyone goes off No. 1 – so I can adjust throughout the afternoon as long as the window is open, but only – and say it with me now – if necessary! Rob … Corey Conners (+4500) The Canuck goes out four pairings after Glass’ dart, so we’ll have ourselves a real-time race; well, at least HE hopes so! My influence for the FRL always begins with the fact that I’m three hours behind on the clock for TOUR stops on the East Coast. So, the by time I’m coherent on Thursday, Conners should be nearing the turn. That gives me the proper moment to review things and pivot. IF NECESSARY! NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.

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Eleven months of competition culminates this weekend at the Wyndham Championship, the final event of the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR regular season. While several of the tournament favorites this week in Greensboro have long since locked up their spot in the postseason, for many, this presents the final opportunity to make a move to secure a berth at THE NORTHERN TRUST. RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup Standings Last year, three players moved from outside the top-125 into the Playoffs with their performances at Sedgefield Country Club: Jim Herman, Zach Johnson and Shane Lowry. That was on par with the average to move into the top-125 the last six years, as 18 players have done it total in that span. The most movement we have seen in the final event of the season is five players, done on three different occasions (2008, 2009 and 2015). Twenty First Group predictive modeling says that 113 players have a 99.9% chance or greater of advancing to the postseason. There are 17 players with between a 20 and 80 percent chance of moving on – many of which begin this week behind the top-125 barrier. After running 10,000 simulations of this week’s Wyndham Championship, taking into account current player form, course fit and other key statistics, here are the five players with the best chance to make the leap from outside the top-125 into playoff position this weekend in North Carolina. Scott Piercy Current FedExCup Rank: 126 Top-125 Probability: 46.5% Currently just one spot out of the Playoffs, TFG projects that Scott Piercy has a better than 46 percent chance to qualify for his seventh consecutive PGA TOUR postseason. Just a week ago, Piercy sat in 144th in the points race, but a third place finish at the Barracuda Championship vaulted the veteran up the standings. It was his first top-ten finish on the TOUR in nearly 18 months. Piercy has some strong course history at Sedgefield, having made the cut in each of his last six starts in Greensboro. Since 2016, he has gained more than half-a-stroke on the field tee-to-green, per round, at this event. Piercy’s best Wyndham Championship finish was a tie for eighth place in 2010. Rickie Fowler Current FedExCup Rank: 130 Top-125 Probability: 39.1% Earlier this season, Rickie Fowler was granted a special exemption into the PGA Championship. While the decision was somewhat controversial at the time, Fowler made the most of the opportunity, finishing in a tie for eighth place at Kiawah Island. With murmurs about his exemption audible, Rickie posted his best worldwide finish in 17 months. While that week featured one type of pressure, this week will present a more omnipresent form of it. Currently five spots out of the top-125, Fowler has less than a forty percent chance of advancing to THE NORTHERN TRUST. Fowler has never missed the postseason in his PGA TOUR career, having qualified every year since 2010. A closing 65 at The Open Championship, followed by an opening 64 at the 3M Open, had Fowler backers excited for a late-season surge. But Rickie failed to break 70 in any of the last three rounds in Minnesota, and finished tied for 34th. Fowler’s only previous career start at this event was in 2016, when he finished tied for 22nd. Will he answer the bell once more? Tommy Fleetwood Current FedExCup Rank: 136 Top-125 Probability: 37.6% With top-ten finishes in more than 21 percent of his career starts on the PGA TOUR, Tommy Fleetwood has typically made the most of his stateside appearances during his career. But with one event left in the 2021 regular season, Fleetwood finds himself on the outside looking in at the FedExCup Playoffs. Fleetwood’s most significant statistical dip this season has come in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, where he’s dropped from 24th to 153rd. Now 35th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Fleetwood is averaging 7.2 yards less off the tee this season compared to last. Considering that, maybe Sedgefield is the perfect layout for a resurgent week for the Englishman: winners of the Wyndham Championship since 2010 rank about 14 percent lower in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee than the PGA TOUR average during that span. Justin Rose Current FedExCup Rank: 138 Top-125 Probability: 34.5% Less than two-and-a-half years removed from being the number one ranked player in the world, Justin Rose is in an unfamiliar spot this week at the Wyndham Championship. Currently 13 spots out of the Playoffs, Rose is down nearly 100 spots this season compared to last in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (from 69th to 167th). Despite that, Rose has played his best golf in some of the biggest spots of the year. His two top-ten finishes on the PGA TOUR this season have both come at major championships: at the Masters, where he held the outright 36-hole lead, and the PGA Championship, where he closed with 67 to vault into a tie for eighth. Needing a big week in North Carolina, can the 10-time TOUR winner find that form again? Nate Lashley Current FedExCup Rank: 127 Top-125 Probability: 29.9% When Nate Lashley missed the cut last week at the Barracuda Championship, it moved him outside the top-125 in the FedExCup points race for the first time since last September. Now on the outside looking in, Lashley will need to avoid a fourth straight missed cut in order to qualify for the postseason. Thankfully for Lashley, his win at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic will keep him on TOUR for next season, regardless of how he plays in Greensboro. Lashley made his debut at the Wyndham Championship in 2020, opening with 66 before ultimately finishing 77th. He will try to recapture that opening round performance this week and move on to the postseason.

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