Cut prediction: Valero Texas Open

Thursday Night Stat Report It was a difficult day for scoring in the opening round at the Valero Texas Open, with only 4 holes playing under par on the day. Here is a graphic detailing hole-by-hole scoring from Thursday’s round: Currently, there are 86 players at 1 over par or better (T64th position). Our model is projecting Friday’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): 2 over par: 74.2 percent 3 over par: 24.8 percent 1 over par: 1.0 percent This week’s field at the Valero Texas Open is as big as they come on the PGA TOUR (156 players) and, due to a relative lack of starpower, one of the more evenly-matched fields as well. As a consequence, our model’s highest cut projection at the start of the tournament was just 74 percent, belonging to Matt Kuchar (in a typical week, the highest cut projection will usually be 80 to 90 percent). After shooting 1 under par today, Kuchar’s cut probability now sits at 91 percent. One of the biggest movers on the day was Grayson Murray, whose probability of making the cut rose from 54 percent at the start of Thursday to 99 percent, thanks to his 5 under par round of 67. This implies that the model is giving Murray about a 1 percent chance of shooting 7 over par or worse tomorrow, given how the cutline is being projected above (nobody tell Grayson!). Some other notable cut probabilities heading into Friday’s round are Kevin Chappell (Even par; 80 percent), Brendan Steele (2 under par; 95 percent), Adam Scott (3 over par; 43 percent), and Sergio Garcia (2 over par; 59 percent). NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.  

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