Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Cut prediction: THE PLAYERS Championship

Cut prediction: THE PLAYERS Championship

There was plenty of starpower on display Thursday at TPC Sawgrass for the first round of THE PLAYERS. The afternoon pairing of Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson drew the biggest crowds, but they didn’t provide them with much to cheer about. All three players have work to do tomorrow if they would like to secure a tee time on the weekend: Woods (Even par, 71 percent made cut probability), Fowler (2 over par, 42 percent), and Mickelson (7 over par, 2 percent). Here is how their respective cut probabilities evolved throughout the day: TPC Sawgrass is best known for its water-filled finishing three holes. It is a great stretch of golf in part due to the wide variance in outcomes it can produce. This variance (or, at least one side of it) was on full display today during the finish to Hideki Matsuyama’s round. Matsuyama arrived at the 16th tee 1 over par and, according to our model, with about a 50 percent chance of making the cut. Three holes later he was 7 over par, and now has just a 2 percent chance of making it to the weekend. In a single hole (the par-3 17th), Matsuyama’s cut probability fell from 33 percent to just 1 percent thanks to a quintuple bogey 8. Heading into Friday’s play, there are 85 players at Even par or better (T69th position). Our model is projecting tomorrow’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): Even par: 61 percent 1 under par: 38 percent 1 over par: 1 percent A final note from Thursday’s play: TPC Sawgrass played decidedly more difficult for the afternoon group of players than it did for the morning wave. This final graphic details the hole-specific differences in scoring averages between the morning and afternoon. Perhaps not surprisingly, the island green 17th hole played the most different between the two waves, playing 0.4 strokes more difficult in the afternoon. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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At PNC, Tiger and Charlie Woods are back … and you already know their goalAt PNC, Tiger and Charlie Woods are back … and you already know their goal

ORLANDO, Fla. – The world returned to normalcy around 9 a.m. Friday. The sun climbed into the sky, swallows were swirling in Capistrano and at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, Tiger Woods – on competitive hiatus since July, aside from 10 holes at The Match last weekend – stepped onto the opening tee at the PNC Championship. Ah, a golfer again. Check that. Woods rode onto the tee, in a golf cart. Across it, actually. It didn’t matter. This is the reality of the latest version of Tiger Woods, a man beset by painful plantar fasciitis in his right foot on top of a badly damaged right ankle and leg. Fans who gathered down the ropes four and five deep left of the opening par 4 didn’t care much how Woods got there. He could have been dropped off by Uber, or by Roman chariot. They were just really, really happy to see him. All types were curious to get the latest on Woods, winner of 82 PGA TOUR events and 15 majors and arguably the greatest to ever play the game. Having played only nine official rounds of golf on TOUR this season – all of them at majors – what does he have in his arsenal? What’s ahead for him? Woods turns 47 on Dec. 30. The clock ticks. “Well, I played more this year than I certainly thought at the beginning of the year,” said Woods, whose biggest 2022 goal was to play in The 150th Open at St. Andrews. As has been the case in his last two late-year PNC appearances, what awaits Woods is mostly unknown. His plantar fasciitis makes it quite difficult to walk. He said he will shut it down after this weekend, stop pushing so hard, and get back to healing. But this week? He wouldn’t miss it. When his lengthy pro-am round had finished alongside his partner and son, 13-year-old Charlie, he was asked to name his favorite moment. That was easy. “The whole thing,” he said. “The whole experience of being out there with him.” Charlie is bigger and stronger and hits it much longer than he did a year ago, when he and his father made a spirited Sunday run at the title. (He has added about 25 yards of length.) They went on a great closing run last year, Charlie hitting many of the best shots, fired 15-under 57 in the event’s scramble format, and finished two shots shy of John Daly and John Daly II. This event delivered the first eagle that Charlie ever made, along with so many of the great father-son moments that Charlie’s famous dad seemed to miss when he was off conquering golf tournaments around the world or rehabbing from serious injuries. Charlie, who rolled an ankle and came up 18 with a slight limp of his own, struggled with his game on Friday, which was no big deal. (“I think they’ll be ready when the gun goes off (Saturday),” said Joe LaCava, Tiger’s caddie.) Woods proudly said his son’s biggest growth year over year is the fact he now can figure out what he is doing and fix his swing on the fly during a competitive round. Getting there included a process of understanding taught by Tiger, who was passing along a lesson from his own father, Earl. “You have to understand,” Tiger said, “in tournament golf, you’ve got to make a switch on the fly and trust it.” In the gallery following Woods and his son were grandparents and parents pushing young children in strollers, some guy dressed resplendently as Uncle Sam, and a man and his son dressed in full, striped tan tiger suits. Former PGA TOUR Champions standout Jim Thorpe was in the crowd. Korn Ferry Tour pro Rob Oppenheim was watching (“Why wouldn’t I?” he said incredulously.) Football announcer Booger McFarland was curious to watch Tiger rip driver on one hole. Woods played his opening nine in a group that included Will Wears, grandson of Arnold Palmer, a legend who was so instrumental in the growth of the PNC. After Wears, a tall and powerful player, drove the green at the 350-yard seventh, Woods, seated nearby in his cart, paid him the ultimate compliment: “Just like your grandad at Cherry Hills.” Padraig Harrington said that 15 years ago, fans would come out to see Tiger hit the shots. Nowadays, the vibe is different. They just want to see Tiger. Who knows what round will be his last? With all the tribulations he has been through – back surgeries, knee surgeries, and a near-fatal 2021 SUV accident that nearly cost him his right leg – they are genuinely happy that he is here. It helps that the PNC is played under the umbrella of the PGA TOUR Champions, which allows players the use of carts. “It has changed. There’s no doubt about it,” Harrington said of the atmosphere. “It is a different emotional atmosphere around it. In many ways, it’s bigger.” Tiger had his moments striking the golf ball. Early on, he made a few short shots with wedges dance around the hole, and at the 214-yard eighth, he launched one of his towering 4-irons left of the flagstick, holding the shot off into a crosswind. His fatigue as the round moves on is hard to disguise. At the 10th, as pro-am teams switched up their pros, there was a long backup on the tee. Woods sat in his cart for some 15 minutes, fiddling on his phone, and holding a short conversation with Annika Sorenstam, GOAT to GOAT, after she had caught up in the group behind him. When Woods went to scale a hill to the tee when it was his time to hit, he moved slowly, gingerly, his body feeling the brunt of such a delay. Of course, the son of an Army Green Beret seldom admits that he is hurting. “How’s the foot, Tiger?” he was asked afterward. Woods answered, “Yeah, it’s good.” Clearly, it’s not. Could competing this week, even with the use of a cart, push back his recovery from his latest ailments? You bet, he said. “You know, I don’t really care about that,” Tiger said. “I think being here with and alongside my son is far more important, and getting to have a chance to have this experience with him is far better than my foot being a little creaky.” Tiger pretty much owns every trophy a man can win, starting with U.S. Junior Championships (3) and U.S. Amateurs (3) to his 15 major championships, which include five Masters titles. He won the career Grand Slam three times over. Jack Nicklaus owns more majors (18), but it is Woods who most consider to be the GOAT. Alastair Johnston, the power agent from IMG who worked with Arnold Palmer and drew up the game plan to bring fathers and sons together in competition 25 years ago (and since, mothers and sons, fathers and daughters, and even major winners and parents), can reluctantly accept fans considering his brainchild to be a “hit and giggle,” with a caveat: It is a “very competitive” hit and giggle. These are athletes used to competing hard, and winning big tournaments, and often it’s clear their children are similarly driven. Johnston laughs in retelling the story from two years ago when Justin Thomas and his dad, Mike, who are close to the Woods family, dropped by the Woods’ home on Christmas Day wearing the bright red matching Willie Park belts they captured as PNC champions. Said Johnston, “You knew right then that Tiger and Charlie were thinking, ‘We’re each going to get one of those, too.’” Tiger never has met a tournament he didn’t want to win, regardless of his health. His son seems ultra-competitive as well. The two placed seventh in 2020, and runner-up a year ago. What would it mean for the two of them to win? “Well, we’ve come close,” Woods said. “We’ve gotten better each year. So we’re trending.”

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Comparing the drivers being played by team Champ-FinauComparing the drivers being played by team Champ-Finau

It should be no surprise that the team of Tony Finau and Cameron Champ has been dubbed “Team #SendIt” this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans thanks to each player’s prodigious length off the tee. Champ is second on TOUR in clubhead speed, clocking in at just over 128 mph. Finau is ranked 22nd at 119 mph and change, but we know he has much more in the tank. Finau has been seen getting it up to 137 mph in videos posted to social media. So, with all this speed packed into one team, how do the drivers of these two players stack up against each other and what can we learn? Cameron Champ Driver: Ping G425 LST (10.5 degrees, set to 9.75 degrees) Shaft: Project X HZRDUS Smoke Green 70 6.5 TX (44.25 inches, tipped 1.5 inch). Tony Finau Driver: Ping G425 LST (9 degrees, set to 7.25 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi Diamana D+ Limited 70 TX (45.25 inches, tipped 1.5 inch) Let’s start with the obvious. Both players use Ping’s G425 LST. LST stands for “Low Spin Technology.” Ping engineers achieved a lower-spinning driver head by making it smaller than the others in the G425 line. That moves the center of gravity closer to the face and creates a low-spinning head. Although both players use a different loft to optimize their launch conditions, they both use Ping’s adjustable hosel to open the face, which lowers the loft. This also helps lower spin, thanks to the lower loft, and it promotes the left-to-right ball flight that both Cameron and Tony prefer. The biggest difference is the length of each player’s driver. Champ’s is 44.25 inches, while Finau’s is an inch longer. This changes how the driver heads are set to have them play to the desired swing weight. At the shorter length, Cameron’s driver uses a 20-gram adjustable rear weight (aka the CG shifter), while Tony’s is six grams lighter. We reached out to Ping’s VP of Fitting and Performance, Marty Jertson, to get some extra insight on the two contrasting driver setups when it comes to length. “Cameron experimented with a going to a slightly longer driver earlier in the year, but after testing settled back into 44.25″ with the G425 LST head in the flat hosel position,” Jertson said. “What makes this unique is Cameron is using both a short driver along with the flat setting to help center his impact and neutralize his left/right dispersion.” (Tech note: A shorter length makes a golf club play effectively flatter.) After round one, it looks like team #SendIt is firing on all cylinders after carding a 9-under par 63 at TPC Louisiana.

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