2019 Open Championship, End of Round 1. Course scoring averages: Overall: +1.98 strokes per round Morning wave: +2.28 Afternoon wave: +1.68 Current cutline: 71 players at +1 or better (T54th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 3 over par: 27% 4 over par: 24.2% 2 over par: 18.7% Top 10 win probabilities: Jon Rahm (T3, -3, 9.8%) Webb Simpson (T3, -3, 7.2%) Brooks Koepka (T3, -3, 6.6%) Justin Rose (T16, -2, 5.5%) Patrick Cantlay (T20, -1, 5.2%) Shane Lowry (2, -4, 5%) Tommy Fleetwood (T3, -3, 5%) Sergio Garcia (T3, -3, 4.1%) Tony Finau (T3, -3, 4%) Tyrrell Hatton (T3, -3, 2.6%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Open Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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