2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.67 strokes per round Morning wave: -1.47 Afternoon wave: -1.86 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 71 players at -2 or better (T53) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 3 under par: 29.5% 2 under par: 25.0% 4 under par: 19.7% Top 10 win probabilities: Harris English (T1, -7, 7.4%) Justin Thomas (T30, -3, 5.4%) Daniel Berger (T12, -5, 4.6%) Louis Oosthuizen (T5, -6, 4.5%) Matthew Wolff (T5, -6, 4.0%) Russell Henley (T1, -7, 3.9%) Adam Scott (T12, -5, 3.8%) Dustin Johnson (T20, -4, 3.7%) Kevin Streelman (T1, -7, 3.7%) Rory McIlroy (T53, -2, 3.5%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.
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