Cut prediction: Sony Open in Hawaii

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – Three paces. That’s all you get on the right of the flag on Sunday at TPC Sawgrass on the iconic 17th island hole. Any more than three and your ball faces a watery grave. The traditional back right pin placement has been a staple for years at THE PLAYERS Championship — so much so that when the man who sets up the course took the job, he was told it was non-negotiable. It is part of the three-hole gauntlet that allows a player to come home with a serious flourish should they step up and execute under the final-round pressure. But don’t be off … because if you are, your chances at becoming PLAYERS champion could drown in Pete Dye’s lakes. For the seventh year in a row, Sunday’s pin placements on the final three holes at TPC Sawgrass will be in their traditional “risk-rewardâ€� spots. On the par-5 16th, this means the front right quadrant, 17 paces from the front and four paces from the right edge that’s guarded by water. The par-3 17th is 14 paces from the front and three from the right. The par-4 closing 18th is just eight paces on and four from the left — where once again water sits. The similarities among the pin positions are a very deliberate ploy from officials. No matter what the scenario on the leaderboard … this thing ain’t over till it’s over. “You can stand on the 16th tee three or four shots behind and still have a chance to win the golf tournament,â€� says PGA TOUR rules official Robby Ware. In the early hours before Saturday’s final round, Ware and Vice President of Rules and Competition Mark Russell are marking Sunday’s pins with a white dot and hitting a few putts towards each location to ensure everything looks in order. It is routine for officials to not only set the hole for the current round, but to also mark where the next round intends to be. This is why you often see caddies stalking out areas of greens their player isn’t actually putting towards. Ware was a big part of 18’s traditional Sunday placement being moved away from what used to be a much more difficult back left. “The one thing I was told when I took over set-up was that it was non-negotiable that the hole was going to be back right on 17 on Sunday and it was going to be back left on 18,â€� recalls Ware, who is now in his 12th year in in his current position. “But when we did a greens reconstruction, I talked them in to levelling out the front left area at 18 because I thought that would be a more exciting hole placement than the back left. The back left is so hard to make birdies. Guys hit it in the middle of the green or they hit it long and they make par. “I wanted to design that part of the green so the balls would actually funnel down towards the hole where a guy could make a birdie and win the golf tournament.â€� Ware says the idea for the last three holes is quite simply to create volatility and excitement. This Saturday morning, despite the fact the first group won’t come through the stretch for three hours yet, fans already have claimed their patch of grass in the amphitheater. On Sunday, they come in even earlier. “The theme of these locations is excitement for sure,â€� Ware adds. “Where great shots are rewarded and if you hit poor shots, you can make a big number. Let’s face it – it’s why all these people want to be around here.â€� Creating excitement is exactly what Rickie Fowler was able to do on Sunday in 2015. Sitting well back coming down the stretch, Fowler finished eagle-birdie-birdie. It pushed him into a three-hole aggregate playoff – which is, of course, played on the final three holes – with Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner. It took four playoff holes, but Fowler prevailed. He ended making birdie three times in one day on the 17th as he took dead aim. Asked about the Sunday pins, Fowler smiles. “They’re great locations. They’ve been fun for me,â€� he says. “A lot can happen. It can go either way. Someone can make a three on 16 as easy as they can make six. There is a lot of risk-reward involved. And that’s great. “You can chase the leader and if you have a two-shot lead going into the last three holes, you know it is not safe as guys can put low numbers up.â€� So what exactly is the play on each hole to get the most reward for your risk? The 16th pin “On the 16th you can aim at the middle of the green on your approach and it can feed to the hole, so really it puts the pressure on the tee shot,â€� Marc Leishman explains. “You need to find the fairway.â€� But even doing that doesn’t bring immediate ease. If you are on the right side of the fairway or even towards the middle of it, the long approach shot carries a significant amount of water. The landing area to find the funnel towards the hole is quite generous, perhaps 20 feet or more left of the pin, but that’s easier said than done with a tournament on the line. “You just have to man up and hit a good shot to get the reward,â€� 2004 PLAYERS champion Adam Scott says. “The pin sits in the bowl but it is also close to the water so there is reward there if you are in the vicinity of the pin,â€� adds 2012 PLAYERS champ Matt Kuchar, “but if you bail out and steer clear of water it can be a tricky chip — even though you have some green to work with.â€� The 17th pin If you think pressure is applied on 16, well, 17 takes it up a notch. Sure, it’s just a short par 3. Sure, it’s a wedge most times. And sure, there is a little more than 20 yards to the left of the pin to play with on Sunday’s pin at 17. But if you need a birdie, anything more than four paces left of the flag means you won’t catch the slope that sends the ball towards the hole. And if you’re taking dead aim … your depth target sits within 10 paces because the island is not a perfect circle. If you’re short, you might get lucky and find the tiny bunker. If not, you’re likely wet. “It just depends on the wind. If it is not very windy, it is a 145-yard shot. Theoretically it is not very hard. But when you get a chance to win the tournament or you get some wind off the right, it’s a pretty tough shot,â€� 2017 FedExCup champion Justin Thomas says. “The thing is, though, if you don’t get it down on that slope, it’s a quick putt. If you are stuck down the front of the green or anywhere above the slope, it’s tough, speed-wise.â€� One man who knows the agony and ecstasy of Sunday’s 17th pin is 2008 champion Sergio Garcia. It was pivotal in his win over Paul Goydos, but in 2013 as he chased down Tiger Woods, Garcia came up short twice going for the glory. “It’s not a long club but you are not going right of the hole — you are trying to hit left,â€� Garcia explains. “You need to control your distance. You have about four yards to catch the slope. It’s not a massive target but it’s a short club. The last few holes of a tournament certainly adds pressure to it though.â€� For Jason Day, the 2016 champion, the key is mental discipline. “It’s got more risk than reward,â€� Days says about the final-round pin location. “But you stand up there with a wedge in your hand and you feel like you can hit it close.â€� “You have to remember there is an intimidation factor. To the right you are souping it, if you are short, you have a tough putt. The smart play is to be left and on the top shelf and hope you can make a putt.â€� The 18th pin As for the closing hole … once again the tee shot can be critical as water protects the entire left side. If you bail too far right, you have rough and trees to contend with. An approach roughly 20 feet right of the pin will still catch the slope and feed the ball in close, so there’s no need to be super-aggressive. But if you miss the mark to the left, you’re wet. Short leaves a tricky pitch off a tight lie. Long or too far right and you have to judge the downhill speed to perfection. “They provide a lot of fireworks in the last three holes and that’s what you want when you’re playing a tournament of this caliber,â€� Garcia adds. “They’re perfect. It is supposed to provide theatre,â€� adds Day. “It means you come down the stretch still confident you can make a big move. You’re not dead yet. Or if in front, you’re not totally safe yet. It has you thinking.â€� Ware hopes the locations will stay for years to come. “What Rickie did – that’s what you set it up for. That was so great to see,â€� he says. “Obviously the players hit the shots, but you set up the hole locations knowing if a guy hits a great shot, he is going to be rewarded for it. “We think we’ve ensured that.â€� They certainly have. So sit back, relax and get ready for the annual fireworks.

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KAWAGOE, Japan (AP) — Rikuya Hoshino did not have the first tee to himself Thursday for the start of Olympic golf. RELATED: Leaderboard, tee times | How the format works | How to watch The grandstand behind him, normally empty like at so many other venues at the spectator-less Games, was filled with volunteers in their Tokyo2020 shirts wanting to see the 25-year-old from Japan with the honor of hitting the first shot in the pandemic-delayed Olympics. The other two players with him in the first group, Sepp Straka of Austria and Thomas Pieters of Belgium, took it from there. Straka picked a good day to be dialed in with his irons in soft and still conditions. He made four birdies in his last six holes for an 8-under 63 to tie an Olympic record — not all that historical considering golf returned only in 2016 — for a one-shot lead over Jazz Janewattananond of Thailand. Pieters, who finished one spot out of a bronze medal in Rio de Janeiro five years ago, was sick Wednesday and saw the front nine at Kasumigaseki Country Club only during practice rounds. He shot 30 on the back nine for a 65. “I kind of didn’t expect this today,” Pieters said. “I felt horrible this morning even when I woke up, so maybe it’s just because I wasn’t thinking about bad shots or places not to hit it. My caddie told me, ‘Hit it there,’ and I did. I kept it simple.” Carlos Ortiz of Mexico also had a 65 in ideal scoring conditions on a course so pristine it didn’t have a divot when players first began arriving because it was closed for two months. The volunteers had emptied the stands after Hoshino’s drive to go to work — most of them stationed to help look for errant shots — when the biggest attraction in Japan arrived. Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama still had reason to believe everyone was watching. “If I say there’s no pressure I’ll be lying,” Matsuyama said after opening with a 69, not the best start in a round with such low scoring that only 13 players in the 60-man tournament were over par. “Hopefully, I’ll be able to embrace the pressure that’s upon me and just try to put together a nice tournament here.” Matsuyama had the biggest crowd, such as it was, with some 80 people tagging along, most of them Japanese media. He was 4 under through eight holes, only to make bogey from two poor tee shots and then didn’t have another birdie. The struggle was more coronavirus-related than any external expectations. Matsuyama has played one round of competition the last five weeks after a positive COVID-19 test. One of his biggest concerns was rust and conditioning. “Probably towards the end a little bit, the mental side and focus kind of faded away from me,” he said. “So that’s something that I need to put together for the rest of the week.” Straka, who had missed the cut in six of his last seven events, wasn’t the only surprise. Juvic Pagunsan of the Philippines was among those at 66. Pagunsan earned a small measure of fame when he won the Mizuno Open in Japan by carrying his own bag with 11 clubs, three fewer than allowed. Caddies were only allowed to follow players in carts because of COVID-19 restrictions, and Pagunsan found that to be a hassle, so he lightened his bag and walked it himself. The victory earned him a spot in The Open Championship, and then he withdrew so he could concentrate on the Olympics. He picked up three birdies on the back nine after rain further softened the golf course. Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele each were at 68, and that was quite a feat for Reed. He was a last-minute replacement when Bryson DeChambeau had a positive COVID-19 test, and because of his testing requirements, Reed didn’t arrived at the course until Wednesday afternoon. That left enough time to ride in a cart to look at the last four holes. “Adrenaline got me going early on today, but really the body hung in there a lot better than I expected,” Reed said. “The swing actually held in there all day. A couple of mistakes out there, not really knowing spots to hit. But besides that, it wasn’t too bad.” His biggest issue was a delay of just over two hours from thunderstorms. They hit right about the time most new arrivals from his American time zone are wanting to take a nap. “I was feeling it during that rain delay,” he said. The Open Championship winner Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy each had a 69, which was only good for a tie for 20th on such a low scoring day. Justin Thomas wouldn’t have minded that. His Olympic debuted featured 18 pars and more missed birdie chances than he cares to remember. “I would love to have some kind of old useless club that I could break over my knee right now,” Thomas said.

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If you play PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, there are two priorities for The Open Championship. First, remember that the event is in England. You laugh, but you haven’t received messages and laments like I have. The tournament is scheduled to begin at 1:35 a.m. ET on Thursday in the United States. That’s 10:35 p.m. on Wednesday on the West Coast. Turn back the clock even further for Alaska and Hawaii. One of the terrific functions of the game is that you can modify your lineup after the first tee ball has been struck. As long as you have at least one starter and one benchwarmer who haven’t started no matter their respective tee times, you can make the swap. The other component to your strategy involves the fantasy scoring. The Open Championship is the last event of the season to measure only actual scoring and bonus points. This means that overall fantasy scoring will be low, which in turn means that poor weeks won’t be penalized as much. With the PGA Championship and three tournaments with no cut among the remaining eight, all featuring ShotLink data, rationing your starts for the usual suspects is critical. It would be easier if The Open anchored the season, but you’ll be smart to adjust in advance. And if you competition happens to hit on the winner and his 300 bonus points, tip your cap. Just don’t bet on it. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for The Open Championship (in alphabetical order): Paul Casey Sergio Garcia Matt Kuchar Francesco Molinari Charl Schwartzel Adam Scott You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Jason Day; Rickie Fowler; Brooks Koepka; Anirban Lahiri; Hideki Matsuyama; Phil Mickelson; Jon Rahm; Justin Rose; Jordan Spieth Driving: n/a Approach: n/a Short game: n/a Power Rankings Wild Card Ian Poulter … While the signs of a rebound were already there, he’s been a different player since sharing second place at THE PLAYERS. He added a T9 in Scotland last week and returns to Royal Birkdale where he was the outright runner-up in 2008. Now, our long-range expectations should be tempered as he’s 41 years of age, but that matters not on the links in Southport, England. He’s a fantastic complement in every format at The Open Championship. Draws Zach Johnson … On cue, he found his game at TPC Deere Run with a share of fifth place. While he led the field in both greens in regulation and strokes gained: tee-to-green, he was still a dismal 52nd in strokes gained: putting. That’s what bumped him from the Power Rankings for The Open Championship where he prevailed at St. Andrews in 2015 and has recorded top 20s in five of the last six editions. Patrick Reed … He remains one of the most interesting options. Never ignored in the mainstream, he often cruises under the radar in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. For that reason alone, it’s worth burning one of your three starts in Segment 4. Top 20s in the last two Opens support the maneuver. Marc Leishman … You want him in that wind. You need him in that wind. A no-brainer across the board and in form all year. Branden Grace … The 29-year-old is in his seventh appearance and he’s yet to miss a cut. His best finish was a T20 at St. Andrews in 2015, so he might go undetected by your competition. Feel free to swoop in with confidence based on that fact and his recent form. Four top 15s and another top 25 in his last seven starts worldwide. Remember, South Africans are often the threads that bind rosters in the majors. Most don’t turn in exceptionally busy schedules on the PGA TOUR, but just as many are reliable investments in the biggest events. Jason Day … Pouring faith into his 6-for-6 record at The Open Championship, but barely. The thing about his 2017 is that it’s disappointing relative to everyone’s expectations, but by no means is he ready to write it off to any degree. You’re aware of the familial distractions early and the playoff loss at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so your angle now is to let all of that dissuade your opposition. When the best are down, that’s when you strike. Think Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open. Lee Westwood … The PGA TOUR non-member is the perfect filler for a notable in any roster format. His confidence tee to green is worth consideration alone. That he makes most cuts is the clincher. Ross Fisher … The Englishman is worth a flier in DFS and PGA TOUR Fantasy Golfer presented by SERVPRO despite a lackluster record in The Open Championship (5-for-9, one top-35 finish). He’s been enjoying a career renaissance over the last 10 months and has six top 10s in his last 11 starts worldwide. One of the best on the European Tour on approach. Tom Lehman … Crafty sixth man for DFSers. Forget that he’s 58 years old. Royal Birkdale doesn’t discriminate against age. The 1996 champ sashays in with top-shelf form kept sharp on the PGA TOUR Champions. The newest generation of golf fans will never understand how gritty he was in his prime, but it’s not like that ever erodes. It’s the reason why he’s never ceremonial no matter the exemption. Fades Rory McIlroy … Relax. Indictments are relative. The tournament arrives at a bad time as he lacks any momentum and comfort. It’s as simple as that. No one should be expected to find his game at Royal Birkdale, including four-time major champions. And remember, since we’ll have multiple opportunities down the stretch to plug him in, we’ll still want him to perform this week. Even a cut made can spark something special. Justin Thomas … It doesn’t matter that he missed his last two cuts, but it doesn’t help, either. This is just his second Open appearance (T53, 2016), so give him another year to get comfy on the links. Daniel Berger … As he embarks on his second start in the Open (MC, 2015) and ninth major, it’s important to know when to remain patient even when current form would demand doubling down. In fact, the 24-year-old has just one top 25 in a major. In a field of this depth, there no reason to force the issue. Thomas Pieters … The long-hitting Belgian was among the surprises who missed the cut at Erin Hills, but he’s missed the cut in half of his last 10 starts. The flipside is that when he makes his way to the weekend, he’s usually on the leaderboard. Yet, as he gets set to tackle Royal Birkdale, we’re reminded that this is just his second appearance in the major and his strengths of power and putting are mitigated in favor of ball-striking and short game. Of course, no one would be surprised if he contends, but it’s a prime opportunity to observe only. Martin Kaymer … Seriously cooled since a T16 at the Masters, which ended a rare, extended stretch of fabulous form. Now, he’s 8-for-9 with three top 15s in The Open, and that aligns with his reputation as a threat when the lights are brightest, but valuate him accordingly in the absence of recent success. Chris Wood … Like fellow Englishman Justin Rose at Royal Birkdale in 1998, Wood recorded a top five here as an amateur in 2008. He improved on that with a T3 at Turnberry in 2009 and added a T23 at Royal Liverpool in 2014. However, the lanky 29-year-old has been slowed by a wrist injury of late and isn’t worth any risk. Louis Oosthuizen … Both his win in 2010 and T2 in 2015 occurred at St. Andrews. Elsewhere in The Open, he’s just 3-for-8 with one top-35 finish. His current form is encouraging, but that track record gives reason to pause. Bernd Wiesberger … Not that he can’t throttle back, but he’ll probably present more favorably at Quail Hollow next month. In four Open starts, he’s made two cuts, neither going for a top 60. Alex Noren … There’s quite a bit to be said of the fact that he’s won five times worldwide since last year’s Scottish Open on the eve of The Open Championship. Two of the victories occurred in England, but this week’s event is a different animal. He placed T19 in his Open debut here in 2008, but has only one other top-45 finish in five starts (T9, 2012) since. If you simply can’t resist, just do the responsible thing and surround him with more reliable pieces. Tyrrell Hatton … His T5 at Royal Troon in 2016 occurred amid a year-long heater that launched him into our consciousness, but the fantastic putter from England has gone nine starts worldwide without a top 25. Bubba Watson … Just in case you haven’t visited this space almost every time he’s played in recent months, I remain skeptical that his change to a new golf ball at the start of the year was worth it. Could the annual crapshoot of The Open Championship somehow play into his hands? Unlikely. At this point, even full-season salary gamers are wringing their hands in uncertainty that they’ll pull the trigger in 2017-18. Matthew Southgate … Has been included in the conversation surrounding the future of the European Tour, but the hype we consume in the U.S. is overreaching on the 28-year-old Brit. A T12 at Royal Troon last year contributed to it, but a co-runner-up in Ireland two weeks ago was just his second top-30 finish in over eight months. Returning to Competition Ã�ngel Cabrera … Scheduled to compete at the Barbasol Championship. Called it quits during the second round of the John Deere Classic with a sore shoulder, which is nothing new for the Argentine. He’s 4-for-14 on the season and just 26 months from eligibility for the PGA TOUR Champions. Carl Pettersson … In the field at Grand National. Walked off TPC Deere Run during his first round last week with a wrist injury. Barely treading water in the FedExCup standings where he’s 198th. Burned a career earnings exemption this season and won’t turn 40 years of age until Aug. 29. Notable WDs The following four golfers withdrew from The Open Championship: Scott Piercy … Snuck in as an alternate via his Official World Golf Ranking, but declined the exemption. He missed the cut in both previous trips. Justin Leonard … It’s been 20 years since he first clutched the Claret Jug at Royal Troon. This will be just the second time he’s failed to appear as a former winner. He replied to an inquiry about it on Twitter as follows: “I don’t feel like trying to compete after playing one event in 11 months (T58, Valero), plus coming straight from African mission trip for 2 weeks.” The 45-year-old is on site, however, as a commentator and analyst for NBC and Golf Channel. Mark Calcavecchia … Having just turned 57 years of age, he knows the clock is ticking on his opportunities to play as a past champion, but he won’t be making the trip for either The Open Championship or the Senior Open Championship in two weeks. Ben Curtis … Since 2009, the 2003 champ is 1-for-8 at the Open with a T64 in 2013. The following five golfers were among the early withdrawals from the Barbasol Championship: Patrick Rodgers … Although he didn’t seal the deal after holding the outright lead after the second and third rounds of the John Deere Classic, he’s no longer in mild peril of needing a trip to the Web.com Tour Finals to retain his card. The second-year PGA TOUR member is now 52nd in the FedExCup standings after the solo second. Camilo Villegas … At 96th in the FedExCup standings, he’s headed back to the Playoffs. It’s always impressive when any golfer without fully exempt status converts, no matter what he’s achieved previously. The 35-year-old’s bounce-back season has feature four top 20s, the last a T19 on Sunday in the Quad Cities. Brett Stegmaier … Has survived his last four cuts, but his sophomore season has been forgettable thus far. Just 11-for-24 without a top-20 finish. He’s 173rd in FedExCup points. Will MacKenzie … This is the third consecutive week during which he’s pulled out between the commitment deadline and the opening round. No news has surfaced to explain it. He last pegged it at the Travelers Championship and placed T17, but has since dropped 10 spots to 174th in FedExCup points. Jeff Overton … He’s played just twice anywhere in the last 12 months due to a herniated disc in his back, including at The Honda Classic where he burned his only start on a medical extension. He then contracted an infection in his spine after a procedure to relieve pain in his back. His wife described it as “life-threatening” in a post on social media on his 34th birthday on May 28. It’s insignificant as compared to the big picture, but he has Veteran Membership on the PGA TOUR. Power Rankings Recap – John Deere Classic Power Ranking, Golfer, Result 1 Charley Hoffman T39 2 Daniel Berger T5 3 Brian Harman T10 4 Danny Lee WD 5 Kyle Stanley T55 6 Kevin Kisner T44 7 Ryan Moore MC 8 Steve Stricker T5 9 Charles Howell III T19 10 Chad Campbell T12 11 Zach Johnson T5 12 Johnson Wagner MC 13 Jamie Lovemark T25 14 Daniel Summerhays T12 15 Kevin Na MC Sleepers Recap – John Deere Classic Golfers, Result Scott Brown T25 Chesson Hadley T25 Trey Mullinax T19 Rory Sabbatini T19 Scott Stallings T5 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR July 18 … Brendon de Jonge (38) July 19 … none July 20 … none July 21 … Robert Gamez (49); Paul Casey (40) July 22 … Brendon Todd (32); David Lingmerth (30) July 23 … Craig Barlow (45); Boo Weekley (44); Kevin Tway (29); Harris English (28) July 24 … Danny Lee (27)  

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