Cut prediction: Palmetto Championship at Congaree

2021 THE PLAYERS Championship, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: +1.75 strokes per round Morning wave: +1.92 Afternoon wave: +1.59 Current cutline (top 65 and ties): 84 players at +1 or better (T60) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 1 over par: 41.3% 2. 2 over par: 30.9% 3. Even: 17.6% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Sergio Garcia (1, -7, 20.0%) 2. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T3, -4, 7.1%) 3. Bryson DeChambeau (T6, -3, 6.6%) 4. Brian Harman (2, -5, 6.2%) 5. Corey Conners (T3, -4, 5.4%) 6. Collin Morikawa (T26, -1, 3.0%) 7. Jon Rahm (T42, E, 3.0%) 8. Justin Thomas (T26, -1, 2.8%) 9. Patrick Reed (T12, -2, 2.8%) 10. Shane Lowry (T3, -4, 2.6%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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AUGUSTA, Ga. — Scottie Scheffler four-putted the 18th hole. He could have six-putted it and still won the Masters, but then that would have been showing off. RELATED: Leaderboard | Tiger Woods ‘thankful’ to complete Masters Tournament | What’s in Scheffler’s bag? Scheffler’s world domination tour – stops in Sheboygan; Phoenix; Orlando; Austin; and Augusta, so far – is running smooth. It runs on solar power, wind, rain, cold, and reruns of “The Office,” a Scheffler favorite. Merchandising opportunities include a replica of his 2012 Yukon with over 180,000 miles on the odometer (he took it over from his dad) and a black vest that can be put on and taken off up to 71 times per round. The basics go like this. Scheffler started the day with a three-shot lead over Cameron Smith, guarded it as zealously as a toddler with his favorite stuffed animal, shot his second straight 71, and won by three over Rory McIlroy (64) and five over Smith (73) and Shane Lowry (69). That’s four wins in six starts, if you’re keeping score at home. No. 1 in the world, No. 1 in the FedExCup, and No 1 in your heart as he hugged family and friends coming off the 18th green. “It’s historic,” said Will Zalatoris (67, T6), who grew up playing the North Texas PGA junior series with Scheffler and competes against him and Jordan Spieth when they’re home. “He is playing the best golf in the world, and this is very reminiscent of Jordan in 2015.” Spieth won most every trophy that wasn’t nailed down that year, including the Masters and FedExCup. Scheffler, who now has won for the fourth time in his last six starts, is doing the same. If golf looked any simpler, it would have gutter-guards, like youth bowling. “Hats off to him,” said Rory McIlroy, whose final-round 64 included three hole-outs from off the green, was the best round of the day by three, and left him at 7 under par, three shy of Scheffler (71). “He’s sort of been head and shoulders above everyone else this week.” This week. Last month. The month before that. Whatever. This all started when Scheffler was paired with U.S. Ryder Cup Captain Steve Stricker for the final round of the PGA Championship at Kiawah last May. Stricker saw how well Scheffler chipped and putted, and what a good guy he is, and made him a captain’s pick for the U.S. squad that would take on the Europeans at Whistling Straits in the fall. All Scheffler did was go 2-0-1, including a 4-and-3 Singles win over then-No. 1 Jon Rahm. The week in Wisconsin gave Scheffler a new level of self-belief, and then he joined forces with veteran caddie Ted Scott in November. Shrewd and highly competitive, Scott won the 1994 world team foosball championship. More to the point, he won the 2012 and ’14 Masters with then-boss Bubba Watson. And here we are. Scheffler/Scott have won coast to coast, stroke play, match play, a major. “He has been on a heater,” said Patrick Cantlay (71, T39), who as the reigning FedExCup champ knows about heaters. “No one is even close to as hot as he has been the last three, four months.” Added Patrick Reed (74, T35), who won the Masters in 2018, of Scheffler’s presumed state of mind: “All the trouble, you don’t ever see it. You see basically flagstick or wherever you are trying to land, and honestly, the hole looks the size of an ocean. You feel like you can’t miss.” Zalatoris, who has known Scheffler since they were both 9 years old, credits their matches back in Dallas. Spieth, 28 and three years their senior, initially had a bit of a leg up. “We’re competitive people by nature,” Zalatoris said, “and if one guy is beating us every day, you kind of want to get a little better.” Streakiness is not a new phenomenon in golf. The question is how long the run lasts. Spieth couldn’t miss in ’15, and neither could Jason Day, who that season was the last player to win four times – including the PGA Championship – in six starts. Cantlay was the last to win in consecutive TOUR starts at the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship last summer. McIlroy looked like he would be unbeatable when he won four majors from 2011-14. Then came Spieth, Day, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Rahm. Cameron Smith (73, T3) held off Rahm at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January, made 10 birdies to win THE PLAYERS Championship last month, and stuck close to Scheffler in the final pairing here Sunday. Until Smith triple-bogeyed the 12th hole, signed for a 73 and walked away with a T3 finish. What goes up must come down, eventually. Doesn’t it? “It’s really hard to stay up there for a long time,” said Rahm (69, T27), who played the final round with the king of the hot streak, Tiger Woods (78, solo 47th place), on Sunday. “Some players have been able to do it,” Rahm added, “but it’s just the next guy comes up, gets hot, and there you go. It’s a beautiful part of the golden age of golf we’re living in right now.” It’s certainly a golden age for Scheffler, who appeared to laugh at his four-putt at the last. He had made 21 birdies, nine bogeys and one double bogey that came so late it didn’t even matter as he batted the ball around the cup like Wayne Gretzky. Masters champion, high school basketball player, board game aficionado, hockey player – Scottie Scheffler can do no wrong.

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