Cut prediction: Mexico Open at Vidanta

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Anirban Lahiri … With his success abroad and now in his fourth season with a PGA TOUR card, the 31-year-old should be a darling of this weekly grouping in the way that the likes of Chez Reavie, Lucas Glover, Russell Knox, David Hearn and others have presented themselves repeatedly in previous seasons. Certainly, there are worse things than plying one’s craft with elevated expectations, but therein lies the rub. Sleepers can’t be stationary. They either rise into regular contenders or, well, they don’t. There’s no such thing as a make-or-break season in professional golf, at least not for talent projected to play for years to come, but it’s time for him to take that next step on this circuit. The Desert Classic is as good a place as any as he recorded a top 30 in both of his previous appearances. His last three starts worldwide in 2018 included a T10 at Mayakoba and a T20 in Indonesia. Harold Varner III … Maybe the fourth time’s the charm. He’s 0-for-3 in the Desert Classic despite beginning two of the three third rounds inside the 54-hole cut line. Even worse, he’s a combined 5-for-12 with zero top 25s in his career on the West Coast Swing. It’s an odd trend on the wrong side of the ledger given he’s enjoyed success on all types of grass. But again, perhaps this is the year he turns it around given he already has three top 15s among four top 25s this season and ranks 18th in adjusted scoring for which 16 of his 18 rounds were under par. He also placed T16 at the Australian PGA Championship in early December. Dylan Frittelli … A Sleeper du jour for all of 2018-19, the 28-year-old from South Africa has opened his first season with membership with three cuts made in as many starts. Baked in between, he closed out the 2018 European Tour season with a pair of top 25s, competed in the World Cup of Golf and opened the 2019 European Tour season with a pair of top 15s in three starts. Finished 12th on that circuit last year in scoring average and T8 in par-5 scoring. While he’s a debutant at the Desert Classic, his confidence and recent form serve as a potent combo. Plan on it to be a recurring theme. Dominic Bozzelli … Commanded attention among hardcore fans at the Sony Open in Hawaii where he was burning the last start on a medical extension. He started the final round on the bubble to fulfill its terms but closed with 3-over 73 to finish T33. The bright side is two-fold. First, he already had secured conditional status as a safety net in the fall, so he opened the 2019 portion of the season near the top of that category from which he’ll play for the remainder. Second, he arrived at the Desert Classic free of the shackles of pressure to play out from under the medical. In that vacuum, it can’t go overlooked that he’s riding a modest consecutive cuts-made streak of four. He also placed fifth in his debut here in 2017. George Cunningham … The 23-year-old product of the University of Arizona took a pass on what would have been his debut as a Web.com Tour rookie in The Bahamas in favor of a sponsor exemption into the Desert Classic. He secured Web.com Tour status when he finished second on the Order of Merit on the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada in 2018 with a win and three more podium finishes among six top 10s. He also slotted second in scoring average. Already 2-for-2 in PGA TOUR competition, including a T36 earlier this season at the Shriners where he ranked third in fairways hit and co-led in par-5 scoring. Two weeks later, he shared 13th place at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan, leading the field in total driving and finishing T3 in greens in regulation. NOTE: Sleepers is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.

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So, how did you do? With one tournament logged using the new scoring system in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, it’s time to determine what we learned. Kevin Tway broke through for his first PGA TOUR victory in a playoff over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker at the Safeway Open. Three examples of apples-to-apples actual scoring (at 14-under 274) over 72 holes present a cooperative data set. Conveniently, all three golfers totaled 172 fantasy points based on actual scoring. Tway circled 19 birdies (worth 4 points each) to go with 48 pars (worth 2 points apiece); Moore converted 20 birdies and 46 pars; and Snedeker picked off 23 birdies and 40 pars. None had a double bogey or worse (worth minus-1 point per). Overall, Tway totaled 203 fantasy points thanks to 31 bonus points, 15 of which via driving. Moore scored 29 bonus points, also with 15 in driving. Sneds added only 18 bonus points, eight with driving. The percentages of actual scoring (172 for each golfer) contributing to total fantasy points scored ranged from Tway’s 84.7 percent to Moore’s 85.6 percent to Snedeker’s 90.5 percent. In other words, bonus points are just that – bonuses. They’re not difference-makers in the short-term. SC Lamas led the world at Silverado with 793 team points. Using last year’s scoring system, the top points-earner at the Safeway Open totaled 1,428. To help gamers who are familiar with the old system transition to the new, consider that last year’s CIMB Classic that didn’t include ShotLink scoring yielded a fantasy champion with 862 points. Speaking of which, this year’s edition of the first event on the Asian Swing is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday. That’s 5 p.m. on the West Coast and 2 p.m. in Hawaii. With locations in South Korea and China lined up thereafter, get used to locking in your lineups earlier than usual. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for the CIMB Classic (in alphabetical order): Marc Leishman Ryan Moore Xander Schauffele Cameron Smith Brandt Snedeker Justin Thomas You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Rafa Cabrera Bello; Paul Casey; Austin Cook; Emiliano Grillo; Tom Hoge; Billy Horschel; Kevin Na; C.T. Pan; Pat Perez; Kyle Stanley; Kevin Tway; Gary Woodland Driving: Byeong Hun An; Keegan Bradley; Rafa Cabrera Bello; Paul Casey; Emiliano Grillo; Billy Horschel; Louis Oosthuizen; C.T. Pan; Kyle Stanley; Gary Woodland Power Rankings Wild Card Pat Perez … Excuse his perceived divided attention late in 2017-18 given the fact that his first child was born during the Playoffs. As he’s settled into a routine at home, the 42-year-old can reconnect with his routine on the road. His renewed love for the game in conjunction with his role as the defending champion presents the ideal reset to launch into the new season. Draws Kevin Na … It’s unusual for him to sit out the Safeway Open, but it gave him an extra week to rest after what rapidly became a busy late summer after his win at Greenbrier. This will mark his fifth straight trip to TPC Kuala Lumpur where he placed T2 in 2014 and T3 in 2015. He loves himself the red numbers as much as this time of the year. Louis Oosthuizen … The tournament debutant finished T32 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on Sunday. It’s his sixth consecutive result outside a top 20, but he’s among the cream of the crop in Malaysia. His tee-to-green game alone should yield a top 25. If anything, as an investment in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, you’ll be attached emotionally and will pay closer attention to his progress. With nothing to lose, give him a whirl. Emiliano Grillo … Faith is greater in the long-term, but he spikes often enough to get a nod in a no-cut contest like this one. Third straight start at TPC Kuala Lumpur. Finished T17 in 2016. Will need to putt better than his poor performance at Silverado (T41) where his tee-to-green game was in midseason form. Anirban Lahiri … Unlike Brendan Steele (below), Lahiri offers an under-the-radar angle even though he arrives with similar inconsistency of late. He’s never missed an edition of the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur. He’s also gone T21-T3-T10 in the last three with a scoring average of 68.17 in those 12 rounds. Stands to be over-owned in DFS, however. Branden Grace … As a general rule, you can swerve around the South African on par 72s, but TPC Kuala Lumpur is one of the shortest. He’s also averaged 69.50 in 12 rounds of competition on it. With attention directed at others in better form and with a strong track record, he’s a sporty deviation from those norms. Andrew Putnam … Had little trouble in retaining momentum after his breakthrough in Reno. After surviving the next three cuts, he concluded the Playoffs with a T16 at Aronimink. His combination of attacking pins and salvaging pars should make him look like a veteran at TPC Kuala Lumpur even though he’s a first-timer. Byeong Hun An Austin Cook Charles Howell III Si Woo Kim Jason Kokrak Troy Merritt Brian Stuard Fades Brendan Steele … While he sat No. 1 in the Power Rankings for the Safeway Open, that’s expected of a two-time defending champion until he deserves to get knocked from the perch. However, if you tuned into my various multimedia after that published, you’d have been advised that he shouldn’t have been a cornerstone even in roster games because of his dreadful form upon arrival. It was specifically the reason why I pivoted to Ryan Moore in the One & Done. To put it into perspective, Steele’s T53 at Silverado is his second-best result of his last 11 dating back to THE PLAYERS. So, despite an impressive record at TPC Kuala Lumpur, he’s offered no reason to earn your trust. J.B. Holmes … Coming off a surprising and balanced solo ninth at Silverado, he hasn’t been a reliable source of value most of the time. In other words, congrats if you were on board and beware moving forward. Jimmy Walker … First trip in five years, but the absence of form of late is why he lands here. After his flourish through April and May, he connected for only one top-40 finish the rest of the way. Quite simply, gamers need to continue to respect the mysterious timing of when his Lyme disease can flare. So, until he goes on another heater – the West Coast Swing is right around the corner – stick with full-season rosters. Kiradech Aphibarnrat … Perfect spot to observe as he makes his first appearance as a PGA TOUR member. Hasn’t appeared at TPC Kuala Lumpur in five years and he’s gone eight starts over nearly four months without registering a top 30. Jason Dufner … Finished 74th here last year and hasn’t hung up a top 50 since a T25 at the U.S. Open nearly four months ago. Peter Uihlein … Parlayed a sponsor exemption in his debut here last year into a T10. He was just over a month removed from a win to open the Web.com Tour Finals and clinch his first PGA TOUR card. Times were better then because he returns to Malaysia with only one top-35 finish in his last eight starts worldwide. The promise of 72 holes normally would serve a purpose in DFS, but gamers who lean on course history over recent form will be on board, anyway. Beau Hossler … Making his debut and in pursuit of his first top 30 in seven starts dating back to July, he’s worth fractional ownership in DFS. But aside from that, gamers and fans wouldn’t be surprised if he captures multiple victories this season. He’s going to pay off for all of us soon enough that appearances in this section will be rare. Enjoy the show. Shubhankar Sharma … If you’ve ever wondered why the PGA TOUR evolved into a FedExCup points-based system of measuring long-term performance, look no further than the impact of one event on Sharma’s standing on the Asian Tour money list. He won the Maybank Championship on the first weekend in February, added two top 15s, and then didn’t post a top 40 in his last four, yet he’s still No. 1 in earnings. (By comparison, John Catlin, one of my Sleeper Picks, has three wins this season and ranks eighth.) It’s been 10 starts and over three months since Sharma recorded his last top-40 hit anywhere. Kevin Chappell Brian Gay Chesson Hadley Michael Kim Satoshi Kodaira Kelly Kraft Scott Piercy Returning to Competition Abraham Ancer … Had to withdraw prior to last week’s Safeway Open with an injured hand due to a mishap with a knife. He’s proclaimed himself 100 percent for his debut at TPC Kuala Lumpur, but it’s understood if you want to give him one start before rostering. Notable WDs Jhonattan Vegas … Elected not to make the trip because of a complication regarding his passport. You’ll recall that he experienced quite the adventure getting to The Open Championship in part due to challenges with his documentation. Andrew Landry … An excerpt from his tweet on Oct. 7 after finishing T66 at Silverado: “Looking forward to going home and getting healthy and spending some much needed time with the family.” Power Rankings Recap – Safeway Open Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Brendan Steele  T53 2  Ryan Moore  P2 3  Patrick Cantlay  T17 4  Emiliano Grillo  T41 5  Adam Hadwin  MC 6  Phil Mickelson  T17 7  Brandt Snedeker  P2 8  Martin Laird  T46 9  Denny McCarthy  MC 10  Joaquin Niemann  T83/MDF 11  Abraham Ancer  DNP 12  Hunter Mahan  T17 13  Anders Albertson  MC 14  Cameron Davis  T17 15  Curtis Luck  MC Wild Card  Chez Reavie  T33 Sleepers Recap – Safeway Open Golfer  Result Sungjae Im  T4 Tyler McCumber  T25 Patrick Rodgers  T25 Kevin Tway  Win Harold Varner III  T14 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR October 9 … none October 10 … Charlie Beljan (34) October 11 … Greg Chalmers (45) October 12 … none October 13 … none October 14 … Tyrrell Hatton (27) October 15 … Richard S. Johnson (42)

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