Through the first round of the Fort Worth Invitational, there are 76 players at par or better (T61). Here is how we are projecting tomorrow’s cutline, assuming course conditions are similar to Thursday’s: Even par: 78 percent 1 over par: 17 percent 1 under par: 5 percent It was a tale of two nines for Xander Schauffele on Thursday, shooting 4-under par on his front nine followed by 6-over par on the inward half. His probability of playing the weekend climbed all the way to 95 percent at the turn. Now, it stands at just 40 percent as Schauffele is currently two strokes outside the most likely cutline number for Friday. Here is how his cut probability evolved throughout Thursday’s play: It’s interesting how much a golfer’s performance on the first hole of the tournament can influence their finish probabilities. For example, Jim Furyk started Thursday with a 67 percent chance of making the cut. After making birdie on his first hole of the day (the 10th, which played to about par) his cut probability jumped to 76 percent! That is a big difference: 67 percent was the 40th highest pre-tournament cut probability, while 76 percent was the 18th highest. What explains this nine percent increase? The short answer is simply that the margins between the best golfers in the world are very small: just a single stroke per round separates the 20th ranked player from the 100th ranked in this field (in terms of expected scores), according to our model. When Furyk gains a stroke on his first hole of the tournament, he is effectively leapfrogging all the players with ability levels that are less than half a stroke better than his (because we are predicting a 2-round cut). This turns out to be about 20 players. This specific example is illustrative of the narrow margins in professional golf, and the difficulty in predicting (with certainty) where players will finish on the leaderboard any given week. Finally, here are some other notable cut probabilities heading into Friday: Rickie Fowler (3 under par, 97 percent), Jon Rahm (2 under par, 95 percent), Jordan Spieth (1 under par, 91 percent), and Patrick Cantlay (3 over par, 38 percent). NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cutâ€�, “Top 20â€�, “Top 5â€�, and “Winâ€� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Fort Worth Invitational, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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2nd Round Match-Ups - B. Hossler vs H. Norlander | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Beau Hossler | -110 |
Henrik Norlander | -110 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - J. Lower vs N. Hojgaard | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Nicolai Hojgaard | -120 |
Justin Lower | +100 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - B. Hossler / H. Norlander / R. Sloan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Henrik Norlander | +135 |
Beau Hossler | +165 |
Roger Sloan | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Lower / N. Hojgaard / D. Wu | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Justin Lower | +165 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | +165 |
Dylan Wu | +200 |
Virginia | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +400 |
Jon Rahm | +550 |
Joaquin Niemann | +700 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +1200 |
Patrick Reed | +1800 |
Carlos Ortiz | +2200 |
Lucas Herbert | +2200 |
Cameron Smith | +2500 |
David Puig | +2500 |
Sergio Garcia | +2500 |
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Tournament Match-Ups - P. Casey v T. McKibbin | |
Type: Requests - Status: OPEN | |
Paul Casey | -115 |
Tom McKibbin | -115 |
1st Round 3-Balls - D. Burmester / B. Grace / C. Schwartzel | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Dean Burmester | +120 |
Charl Schwartzel | +170 |
Branden Grace | +275 |
1st Round 3-Balls - S. Garcia / L. Oosthuizen / M. Kaymer | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Sergio Garcia | +105 |
Louis Oosthuizen | +145 |
Martin Kaymer | +400 |
1st Round 3-Balls - T. Hatton / T. McKibbin / C. Surratt | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Tyrrell Hatton | +105 |
Tom McKibbin | +200 |
Caleb Surratt | +260 |
1st Round 3-Balls - L. Herbert / M. Leishman / M. Jones | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lucas Herbert | +100 |
Marc Leishman | +170 |
Matt Jones | +350 |
1st Round 3-Balls - B. Koepka / D. Johnson / C. Smith | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Smith | +150 |
Brooks Koepka | +175 |
Dustin Johnson | +200 |
1st Round 3-Balls - B. DeChambeau / J. Rahm / J. Niemann | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +150 |
Jon Rahm | +170 |
Joaquin Niemann | +210 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group A - B. DeChambeau / T. Hatton / J. Rahm / P. Reed / J. Niemann / C. Ortiz | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +280 |
Jon Rahm | +320 |
Joaquin Niemann | +375 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +500 |
Patrick Reed | +600 |
Carlos Ortiz | +700 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group B - C. Smith / S. Garcia / L. Herbert / D. Burmester / S. Munoz / B. Koepka | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Smith | +375 |
Lucas Herbert | +375 |
Sebastian Munoz | +425 |
Brooks Koepka | +450 |
Dean Burmester | +450 |
Sergio Garcia | +450 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group C - T. Gooch / P. Casey / C. Tringale / M. Leishman / D. Johnson / R. Bland | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Talor Gooch | +350 |
Cameron Tringale | +400 |
Dustin Johnson | +400 |
Marc Leishman | +450 |
Paul Casey | +450 |
Richard Bland | +475 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group D - T. McKibbin / B. Watson / C. Schwartzel / L. Oosthuizen / T. Pieters / H. Varner | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Tom McKibbin | +400 |
Bubba Watson | +425 |
Charl Schwartzel | +425 |
Thomas Pieters | +425 |
Harold Varner III | +450 |
Louis Oosthuizen | +450 |
Bryson DeChambeau | |
Type: Bryson DeChambeau - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | -135 |
Top 10 Finish | -350 |
Top 20 Finish | -1200 |
Jon Rahm | |
Type: Jon Rahm - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | -115 |
Top 10 Finish | -300 |
Top 20 Finish | -1200 |
Joaquin Niemann | |
Type: Joaquin Niemann - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +100 |
Top 10 Finish | -250 |
Top 20 Finish | -900 |
Tyrrell Hatton | |
Type: Tyrrell Hatton - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +180 |
Top 10 Finish | -150 |
Top 20 Finish | -600 |
Patrick Reed | |
Type: Patrick Reed - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +290 |
Top 10 Finish | +105 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Ramey / A. Putnam / R. Hoey | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rico Hoey | +125 |
Andrew Putnam | +175 |
Chad Ramey | +250 |
Carlos Ortiz | |
Type: Carlos Ortiz - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +310 |
Top 10 Finish | +115 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
Lucas Herbert | |
Type: Lucas Herbert - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +310 |
Top 10 Finish | +115 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
Cameron Smith | |
Type: Cameron Smith - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
David Puig | |
Type: David Puig - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
Sergio Garcia | |
Type: Sergio Garcia - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
Brooks Koepka | |
Type: Brooks Koepka - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +400 |
Top 10 Finish | +140 |
Top 20 Finish | -300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Weir / C. Kim / B. Silverman | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ben Silverman | +125 |
Chan Kim | +130 |
Mike Weir | +375 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - D. Ghim / H. Buckley / M. Meissner | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Doug Ghim | +125 |
Mac Meissner | +190 |
Hayden Buckley | +225 |
2nd Round Six Shooter - R. McIlroy / L. Aberg / S. Burns / SJ Im / L. Clanton / M. Homa | |
Type: 2nd Round Six Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +240 |
Ludvig Aberg | +350 |
Sam Burns | +400 |
Sungjae Im | +550 |
Luke Clanton | +600 |
Max Homa | +700 |
2nd Round Six Shooter - T. Pendrith / N. Taylor / M. Hughes / D. Riley / L. Hodges / G. Woodland | |
Type: 2nd Round Six Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Taylor Pendrith | +275 |
Nick Taylor | +350 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +400 |
Davis Riley | +475 |
Lee Hodges | +550 |
Gary Woodland | +700 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - S. Burns vs T. Pendrith | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Burns | -110 |
Taylor Pendrith | -110 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - H. Hall vs D. Riley | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Harry Hall | -115 |
Davis Riley | -105 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - M. Homa vs S. Im | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Sungjae Im | -125 |
Max Homa | +105 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - L. Clanton v S. Im | |
Type: Requests - Status: OPEN | |
Luke Clanton | -115 |
Sungjae Im | -105 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - S. Burns / M. Homa / S. Im | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Burns | +120 |
Sungjae Im | +210 |
Max Homa | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - D. Riley / L. Hodges / G. Woodland | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Davis Riley | +150 |
Lee Hodges | +175 |
Gary Woodland | +200 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - M. Hughes vs N. Taylor | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Nick Taylor | -120 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +100 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - A. Rozner v M. Pavon | |
Type: Requests - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | -115 |
Matthieu Pavon | -105 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Taylor / T. Pendrith / M. Hughes | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Taylor Pendrith | +130 |
Nick Taylor | +180 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +230 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Pavon / A. Svensson / A. Wise | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthieu Pavon | +125 |
Adam Svensson | +135 |
Aaron Wise | +350 |
1st Round 3-Balls - L. Coughlin / J.Y. Ko / R. Takeda | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jin Young Ko | +135 |
Rio Takeda | +160 |
Lauren Coughlin | +240 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - L. Aberg vs R. McIIroy | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | -130 |
Ludvig Aberg | +110 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - K. Mitchell vs T. Detry | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Keith Mitchell | -120 |
Thomas Detry | +100 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - R. McIIroy / L. Aberg / L. Clanton | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +125 |
Ludvig Aberg | +165 |
Luke Clanton | +275 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Detry / K. Mitchell / B. Hun An | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Keith Mitchell | +145 |
Thomas Detry | +170 |
Byeong Hun An | +225 |
1st Round 3-Balls - N. Korda / M. Stark / M. Saigo | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | -110 |
Mao Saigo | +200 |
Maja Stark | +320 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - H. Hall / T. Moore / K. Kitayama | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Harry Hall | +145 |
Kurt Kitayama | +180 |
Taylor Moore | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Villegas / E. Grillo / N. Hardy | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Emiliano Grillo | +105 |
Nick Hardy | +180 |
Camilo Villegas | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Lashley / A. Smalley / V. Perez | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | +120 |
Victor Perez | +165 |
Nate Lashley | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Dahmen / P. Rodgers / C. Young | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Patrick Rodgers | +135 |
Carson Young | +180 |
Joel Dahmen | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Onishi / M. Creighton / M. Anderson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthew Anderson | +140 |
Myles Creighton | +185 |
Kaito Onishi | +210 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Rosenmueller / M. Andersen / J. Goldenberg | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Thomas Rosenmueller | +100 |
Matthew Anderson | +170 |
Josh Goldenberg | +340 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Velo / B. Thornberry / W. Heffernan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Kevin Velo | +110 |
Braden Thornberry | +145 |
Wes Heffernan | +375 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - P. Peterson / P. Knowles / H. Thomson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Hunter Thomson | +135 |
Paul Peterson | +140 |
Philip Knowles | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Norgaard / G. Sargent / J. Keefer | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Johnny Keefer | +110 |
Niklas Norgaard | +120 |
Gordon Sargent | +550 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - A. Rozner / V. Covello / W. Wang | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | -230 |
Vince Covello | +400 |
Wei-Hsuan Wang | +425 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Kanaya / T. Cone / A.J. Ewart | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Takumi Kanaya | -110 |
A J Ewart | +250 |
Trevor Cone | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Goodwin / Y. Cao / B. Botha | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Noah Goodwin | +110 |
Barend Botha | +200 |
Yi Cao | +250 |
Major Specials 2025 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +500 |
Jon Rahm | +750 |
Collin Morikawa | +900 |
Xander Schauffele | +900 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1000 |
Justin Thomas | +1100 |
Joaquin Niemann | +1400 |
Shane Lowry | +1600 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +1800 |
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US Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +275 |
Rory McIlroy | +650 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +700 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
Justin Thomas | +3000 |
Joaquin Niemann | +3500 |
Shane Lowry | +3500 |
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The Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Jon Rahm | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | +2500 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
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Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
USA | -150 |
Europe | +140 |
Tie | +1200 |