Cut prediction: Farmers Insurance Open

We are thankful this Thanksgiving for golf itself. As the pandemic drags on, the National Golf Foundation reported that September alone saw a 26% jump in rounds played year-over-year, with every state in the continental United States reporting an increase. Through the end of September, year-to-date rounds were up 8.7%, which the NGF called, "A startling turnaround following a disastrous start to the spring." Golf is getting us outside, keeping us safe, and keeping us (relatively) sane. Here are eight other things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 1. The resilience of the PGA TOUR It had been 91 days of no TOUR events when the best players in the world flew to Fort Worth, Texas for the start of the Charles Schwab Challenge on June 11. Copious COVID tests, no on-site fans, off-the-charts uncertainty. Pro sports were on hold. Nobody knew what to expect. What we got was all kinds of compelling storylines, from Ancer (Abraham, making a run at the Masters before finishing T13) to Zalatoris (Will, accepting Special Temporary Membership). Today we can say that the TOUR has been beset by relatively few positive tests, entertained the masses throughout a hard year, and led the way back for all of professional sports. 2. The courage of Camilo Villegas After 22-month-old daughter Mia died of cancer in late July, Villegas and his wife Maria refocused and renamed their charity Mia's Miracles to help other families coping with childhood cancer in the United States and their native Colombia. Meanwhile, Camilo resumed his career on the PGA TOUR, where he was coming back from a shoulder injury - an injury he now says was a blessing in disguise because it kept him home with his daughter for the little time she had. Villegas shot 64 to share the first-round lead at The RSM Classic last week. He finished T6th. 3. The tears of Dustin Johnson He was as inscrutable as an Easter Island statue at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, when he lost his three-shot lead with a second-hole triple bogey, shot 82, and finished T8. Ditto for the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits two months later, when after grounding his club in a bunker he had to take a crushing two-stroke penalty on the 72nd hole. Johnson didn't crack after taking the 54-hole lead/co-lead but failing to win two other U.S. Opens, or at the PGA Championship in August, where he shot 68 to lose by two to Collin Morikawa (64). But after he'd won the pandemic-delayed Masters, Johnson was so overcome with emotion he couldn't speak in an interview with CBS' Amanda Balionis. This is what came of having grown up banging balls under the lights at the Weed Hill driving range in Columbia, South Carolina, just an hour or so from Augusta National, always dreaming of the Masters. Johnson shrugged and offered an apologetic smile as Balionis waited for him to collect himself in his new 42 long green jacket. A world-beater whose golf game seemed almost inhumanly good as he won the Travelers Championship, THE NORTHERN TRUST, the TOUR Championship, the FedExCup and now the Masters, he had never been so relatable. 4. The sportsmanship of Peter Malnati After coming into the Sanderson Farms Championship ranked 312th in the world and 103rd in the FedExCup, the floppy-hatted Malnati shot a final-round 63, making nearly 140 feet of putts. He answered every reporter's question, plopped down on the Country Club of Jackson grass with his wife Alicia and son Hatcher, and waited to see if it would be enough. Sergio Garcia answered in the negative when he made a kick-in birdie at the 72nd hole nearly two hours later, but a smiling Malnati was among the first to congratulate the winner. No, he hadn't won, but he'd revived his career. His top-10 finish meant a spot in the field at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open the next week, where he would keep it going with a T5 finish. With a T48-place finish at The RSM Classic last week, Malnati is up to 16th in the FedExCup. 5. The pioneering spirit of Bryson DeChambeau He won the Rocket Mortgage Classic by three at Detroit Golf Club, and U.S. Open by six after hitting just 41% of the fairways at fearsome Winged Foot in September. "No chance," Rory McIlroy said, when asked if he imagined anyone winning that way. Alas, on a course that seemed much more suited to his newfound power game, DeChambeau came unglued on two of Augusta National's shortest holes - the drivable par-4 third and cupcake par-5 13th - and finished a disappointing T34 at the Masters in November. Either way, bulked-up Bryson was and remains must-see TV. 6. The youth of PGA TOUR Champions Bernhard Langer used to have a stranglehold on the 50-plus circuit, but with the seismic arrivals of Ernie Els, Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson, the tour is as competitive as ever. Furyk (The Ally Challenge; PURE Insurance Championship) and Mickelson (Charles Schwab Series at Ozarks National; Dominion Energy Charity Classic) even won their first two starts. Now Darren Clarke has gotten in on the action with a win at the TimberTech Championship. 7. The staying power of TPC Sawgrass The PGA TOUR's TPC Network of Clubs and iconic TPC Sawgrass, which started it all, turned 40 in October. It was a good time to remember that TPC courses have hosted more than 400 professional tournaments, with the rent-free venues allowing for bigger purses and charitable donations. On non-tournament weeks, the TPCs are open to recreational players, who can test their games in the same golfing theaters where history has been made. 8. The persistence of the short hitter Dustin Johnson won the FedExCup, but three of the six multiple tournament winners last season were outside the top 100 in driving distance: Collin Morikawa, Brendon Todd and Webb Simpson. Justin Thomas, who along with Johnson and Jon Rahm made up the other three big hitters who cleaned up last season, even admitted to dialing back on distance to hit more fairways. "It just kind of proves yet again that length is not the answer," he said. The game is still open to all.

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Talor Gooch (+500 for a top 10) … A consequence of him withdrawing early from last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship is that he’ll soar under more radars in Vegas this week. But he shouldn’t. The 29-year-old splashed into this season with a T4 at Silverado, his best finish of calendar-year 2021. It’s redundant to cite that he does it all inside the ropes and throughout his bag, but it doesn’t mean that that should go unnoticed every time, either. Recorded his first-ever top 25 at TPC Summerlin in 2017 when he chased a dreadful 77 in the third round with a 64 in the finale to climb 39 spots for a T16. Scott Piercy (+1000 for a Top 10) … It’s been a challenging couple of years for the 42-year-old, but despite him salvaging his card at the buzzer last season and his position at 197th in the Official World Golf Ranking, he really isn’t a Sleeper at the Shriners. For one, he’s a homegrown talent from Las Vegas who made three starts in the tournament before his rookie season of 2009. Since he’s connected for four top 10s among eight top 25s, including a T19 last year. He also opened this season with a T11 at Silverado, so he didn’t exhaust all his energy locking up fully exempt status. Nate Lashley (+1200 for a Top 10) … If you squint in places, TPC Summerlin could resemble TPC Scottsdale where he’s finished T3 (2020) and T17 (2021) a mere car ride from his own pillow, so it’s proof that he can excel in the desert. He sat T19 entering the final round here last year before blowing up for a closing 75 to finish T52. For what is now his fourth appearance, the 38-year-old brings the mojo of consecutive top 20s to open the new season. He didn’t qualify for the 2021 FedExCup Playoffs but he’s fully exempt by virtue of his win at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic and extended eligibility due to the pandemic. Alex Smalley (+1200 for a Top 10) … If you tuned into the Sanderson Farms Championship, you likely learned that PGA TOUR rookie Sahith Theegala eked into the Korn Ferry Tour Finals via his equivalent of non-member FedExCup points. To wit, his 97.917 points would have slotted him 199th among members. After a timely surge in the Finals to secure his card, Theegala held at least the co-lead after every round before fading for a T8 in Mississippi. Smalley doesn’t have as strong a pedigree, but he, too, barely cracked the field at the Finals as his equivalent of 108.961 points would have positioned him 195th among members, and he needed a T29 at the regular season-ending Wyndham Championship to clear the hurdle. After rising in the Finals to join Theegala in the class of 27 rookies, the Duke University product missed the cut at Silverado and opened with 76 at Country Club of Jackson. However, he responded with a bogey-free, 9-under 63 in the second round to survive the cut on the number (en route to a T31), and then open-qualified for the Shriners with a bogey-free, 9-under 63 at Boulder Creek Golf Club. He’s a fighter personified. Harry Hall (+2500 for a Top 10) … The recently betrothed 24-year-old from England is making his third career PGA TOUR start. He was a Sleeper in each, so it’s apropos that the third time presents as the charm in the shadows of his collegiate stomping grounds at UNLV. After missing the cut at the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open, he finished T47 at The American Express to kick off his 2021. Middling results followed on the Korn Ferry Tour until he broke through for victory in Wichita in June. He’s a terrific putter but this endorsement leans strongly on the intangibles of his confidence and familiarity of the local connection on the coattails of a joyous life experience. Odds were sourced on Oct. 5, 2021. For live odds, visit betmgm.

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McKINNEY, Texas — Sebastián Muñoz will be the “other” local guy in the final pairing of the final round of the AT&T Byron Nelson. RELATED: Leaderboard | Inside the Field: PGA Championship It’s cool by the Colombian who now calls the Dallas area home and has at least shared the lead after all three rounds. Muñoz shot a 6-under 66 on Saturday and was 21 under, a stroke ahead of hometown favorite Jordan Spieth, who is still seeking a breakthrough at the event in which he contended in the final round as a 16-year-old high schooler in 2010. Spieth shot a 64. Joaquin Niemann will be the third player in the final group Sunday, alone in third another shot back after a 65. James Hahn almost matched Muñoz’s opening-round 60 at TPC Craig Ranch, shooting 61 to jump 34 spots to a tie for fourth with Justin Thomas (64). Spieth is a year younger than Muñoz at 28 but has three majors among 13 career victories after starring at the University of Texas. Muñoz, who played in college nearby at North Texas, is 2 1/2 years removed from his lone PGA TOUR win. “Besides winning in Bogota, Colombia, I’ve never been the favorite of any other place,” Muñoz said. “So it’s a familiar spot. Jordan is, of course, the golden boy here, so everyone’s favorite. I’m good friends with him, so it’s going to be a lot of fun tomorrow.” Spieth never went more than two holes without a birdie before a bogey at 15. He’s had lower rounds and been close to victory before in a tournament he wants to win badly after such a remarkable PGA TOUR debut as an amateur 12 years ago. Besides, he and others among the top 30 in the world playing this week are getting ready for the PGA Championship next week at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma. “So having a chance to win this event, this will be kind of the best chance I’ve maybe ever had going into Sunday,” Spieth said. “Done a good job not putting too much pressure on myself, I just wanted to get into contention and obviously see what needs to be sharpened for next week. But there’s no better prep for a major than winning the week before.” Speith was ninth last season in the first year at TPC Craig Ranch, his best Nelson finish. Muñoz made a 39-foot birdie putt on the par-4 second hole and sank a long bunker shot on the short par-4 sixth. Playing with another Texan in Ryan Palmer, Muñoz ran into trouble along with Palmer on the par-4 16th. After Palmer sprayed his approach way right into the stands, Muñoz went left playing a shot from a bunker with the ball in the rough above his feet. He swiped the ground with his club after leaving a chip 30 feet away and ended up with his only bogey. Palmer, two shots back at the time after a stretch of five consecutive birdies, had to drop in some deep rough, needed two shots to get out and three-putted for double-bogey. A West Texas native and Dallas-area resident seeking his first individual victory since 2010, Palmer shot 70 and was 17 under with defending champion K.H. Lee (67) and 2011 Masters winner Charl Schwartzel (68). Spieth briefly pulled even with Munoz at 18 under with five birdies in six holes before the Colombian hit his approaches on 9 and 10 within 5 feet for birdies that put him back in front to stay. Hahn missed the cut the past two times he played the Nelson after finishing third in 2017, the last year at the TPC Four Seasons in another Dallas suburb, Irving. The move to McKinney, about 30 miles north of downtown, came after the Nelson was played twice at Trinity Forest in southern Dallas, then canceled during the pandemic before another relocation. A two-time PGA TOUR winner, Hahn birdied five of the last six holes on the front nine and started a 5-under stretch over four holes by hitting his second shot to 7 feet on the par-5 12th. “I feel like it just played easy out there for me, but everyone’s shooting, 9-, 10-under, someone is every day,” said Hahn, who has missed 10 cuts this season. “So I just felt like, ‘Why not me?’” Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, who overcame a triple-bogey early in the second round for an outside shot to make a Sunday run, recorded birdies in bunches in a 65 that left him at 16 under. The top-ranked player and Dallas resident birdied four of the last five holes on the front and three in a row on the back, but his bogey-free round ended with a disappointing par on the reachable par-5 18th. “I haven’t really seen the ball go in very much, which is frustrating because you got to make putts out here to shoot low scores,” Scheffler said. “I fought my way kind of back into the tournament, but I need a hot putter tomorrow if I want to make some noise.” Davis Riley shot 64 and was tied with Scheffler and Beau Hossler (67). A pair of older TOUR rookies faded from contention with 2-over 74s. David Skinns, a 40-year-old from England started the day tied for the lead with Muñoz and Palmer, and 33-year-old American Justin Lower, who was just a shot back.

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