2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Monterey Peninsula: 0.83 strokes per round Spyglass Hill: -0.08 Pebble Beach: -0.06 Current cutline (top 60 and ties, decided after round 3): 73 players at -1 or better (T58) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 3 under par: 17.2% 2 under par: 16.0% 4 under par: 15.4% Top 10 win probabilities: Patrick Cantlay (T2, -6, 22.2%) Dustin Johnson (T24, -3, 9.3%) Nick Taylor (1, -8, 6.9%) Jason Day (T12, -4, 4.2%) Harold Varner III (T4, -5, 3.6%) Lanto Griffin (T4, -5, 3.0%) Max Homa (T4, -5, 2.9%) Phil Mickelson (T12, -4, 2.6%) Charley Hoffman (T4, -5, 2.3%) Harry Higgs (T4, -5, 2.2%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Sony Open in Hawaii, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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