Confidence Factor: RBC Heritage

With the first major of year in the books it’s off to Hilton Head for decompressing at the RBC Heritage on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. The iconic lighthouse, Calibogue Sound and smells from the low country boils will set the atmosphere around this event. Harbour Town Golf Links will serve as the host again as 132 players in an invitational field celebrating 50 years on TOUR will participate in a hit-and-giggle after the Masters. Er, not really. While the pressure of playing major championship golf is in the rear-view mirror for 31 players this week, the entire field will have to tackle this Pete Dye-Jack Nicklaus design with 500 FedExCup points and a prize pool of almost $7 million dollars on the line. Playing one yard short of 7,100 and to Par-71 (36-35), the winner will take home $1.26 million and doesn’t have to worry about his status on TOUR for the rest of this season and the next two. I’d suggest this is anything but an “off” week and that includes for gamers as well! As shown by the list of recent champions below there is hardly a pattern when it comes to picking winners. Trying to crack the code this week will present a challenge as this track has changed recently. This is event No. 2 at Harbour Town after Hurricane Matthew swept through in latter part of 2016. The course wasn’t damaged or the routing changed, but there were plenty of trees that didn’t survive and have not been replaced. The course now sees more sunshine and feels more wind and that increases the degree of difficulty as it can play firmer and faster. Brian Gay’s 2009 tournament record of 20-under-par is probably safe, regardless of coastal weather as benign wind won’t stop the sun from drying the place out. Troy Merritt, who’s not in the field this week, was the second man to post 61 in 2015 after David Frost in 1994. Similarly to Frost he did not win the tournament. TALES OF THE TAPE As we look back to look forward, the last three winners have been “firsts” at Harbour Town. Furyk picked up his first win since the 2010 TOUR Championship for his second victory at Harbour Town. Anytime Furyk wins an event the first thing that should spring to mind is accuracy matters. While it’s not THE determining factor this week, Furyk gives plenty of clues and what it takes to win. What isn’t listed above is that the weather was perfect and that’s the exception, not the rule at this event. Merritt’s 61 in Round 2 should have been a clue! Furyk, using lift-clean-and replace with the rest of the field, came from four shots off Merritt’s lead in the final round to force a playoff. The playoff was with Kevin Kisner, not Merritt, who closed with 64. Rounds 2, 3 and 4 ended up being the second, third and fourth-easiest rounds in the history of the event as Furyk joined the group of nine other multiple champions at this event. It was also Braden Grace’s first top 10 on the PGA TOUR. For the second year in a row, Grace checked off a first at Harbour Town as his victory was the first on TOUR for the South African. He entered the week, as 28 of the past 34 champions did, coming off the Masters experience (MC) and off a previous win earlier in the year. Grace flipped the Furyk script and used his power and a superb wedge game as he pounded Harbour Town with 66 in the final round. Similarly to Furyk he began the final round adrift, three shots behind Luke Donald’s 54-hole lead. Only John Senden went lower on Sunday (65) as not even a third of the field were in red figures. Grace’s winning score of 275 (-9) tied 2014 champion Graeme McDowell for the only single-digit winning total since 2005. Grace became the 11th first-time winner and 11th international winner as the wind gusts and cool temperatures kept scores up. In 48 previous events a South Carolinian had never slipped on the plaid jacket or collected the biggest check here. Rookie Wesley Bryan, born in Columbia, put an end to that streak with his first win on the PGA TOUR. Bryan became the first player since Carl Pettersson in 2012 to win without having played the Masters the week prior. This year, he won’t have that to worry about as his victory propelled him into the field last week where he MC. Bryan, like the two winners above him, had to climb out of a hole on Sunday as he trailed Jason Dufner by four shots before righting the ship. Bryan became the fifth consecutive winner to win while trailing by three or more shots in the final round. He was the 12th player to break his maiden on TOUR at this event and the second in a row. He became the first player and just sixth overall to win in his first attempt since Boo Weekley in 2007. The pressure is on in his first defense as he’ll be reminded no defending champion has MC since Davis Love III in 1993. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 at RBC Heritage since 2013 or is a former champion. SG: Tee-to-Green Rank Golfer 2 Paul Casey 4 Dustin Johnson 8 *Kevin Chappell 11 Luke List 13 Scott Piercy 15 *Bryson DeChambeau 18 Charles Howell III 19 *Kevin Streelman 20 Francesco Molinari 21 Zach Johnson 22 Adam Hadwin 23 Chesson Hadley 27 *Patrick Cantlay Scrambling Rank Golfer 3 *Kevin Streelman 5 *Kevin Na 6 *Aaron Baddeley 7 *Webb Simpson 8 Paul Casey 10 *Brian Gay 11 Cameron Smith 14 *Brandt Snedeker 26 *William McGirt 27 *Zach Johnson SG: Putting Rank Golfer 3 Greg Chalmers 7 *Brian Harman 8 *Kevin Kisner 9 *Whee Kim 10 *Webb Simpson 14 Dustin Johnson 14 Peter Malnati 16 *Wesley Bryan 17 *Graeme McDowell 20 Patton Kizzire 20 Emiliano Grillo 22 *Matt Kuchar 25 *Luke Donald Par-4 Scoring Rank Golfer 3 Dustin Johnson 9 *Marc Leishman 11 Cameron Smith 11 *Kevin Chappell 11 Ryan Palmer 11 *Brian Harman 17 Scott Piercy 17 *Kevin Streelman 17 Patton Kizzire 22 *Ben Martin 22 Tyrrell Hatton 22 *Stewart Cink 22 Emiliano Grillo 22 *Zach Johnson 22 *Webb Simpson Harbour Town Golf Links will require plenty of patience, skill and a bit of target golf, just as Pete Dye would prefer. Usually this was a track where similar to last week would require a few loops in tournament play to get it figured out. Tell that to the rookie who won last year and the other three in the top 10! As with any great course, multiple styles should be able to flourish and the three winners above confirm that theory. Coastal golf will always involve a bit of wind and weather just as Dye courses will make players think twice before pulling the trigger. With the extra sun and wind a firm and fast track can develop. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on TOUR (think Pebble Beach) and have annually been the toughest to hit on TOUR. Installed after the 2015 edition, they have one more year of growth in their roots and should be more receptive. Once aboard players will have to handle the humps and bumps that come with Dye-Nicklaus designs. If the overhanging trees, small greens and Dye design angles aren’t enough there are 54 bunkers and 12 water hazards also to navigate. Speaking of navigating, I’m leaning back on the players who have been rolling lately with a sprinkle of the veterans, not the other way around. The other very interesting angle this week is how those who played 72 holes at Augusta hold up over 72 holes this week. Sure, it’s a flat, coastal walk but I have the feeling this is one that they’ll take for the team. Be warned. Course Ratings: 2015: 26th-most difficult of 52 played; -0.51 strokes below par. 2016: eighth-most difficult of 50 played; +1.285 strokes above par. 2017: 29th-most difficult of 50 played; -0.324 strokes below par. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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