Confidence Factor: Masters Tournament

Whether your fantasy golf season starts this week or started last October, every gamer is raring to go for this week’s first major, the Masters. The Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia will host for the 82nd time as a loaded field will test every theory, analysis, rumor, trend and stat known to gamers. There’s not a doubt in my mind that this is the most popular major, by some distance, for gamers and golf fans alike. The former Fruitland Nurseries course is as familiar and comfortable as an old T-shirt to gamers and golf fans alike. Each year, we get to know the layout just a little bit better than the year prior, and that familiarity makes us all experts. We all know putts break to Rae’s Creek, a draw is better than a fade and the tournament doesn’t begin until the back nine on Sunday, right? Augusta National will welcome 87 players this week including last week’s winner Ian Poulter, the last man into the field after his victory at the Houston Open. The field hasn’t been this compact since 1997 when 86 players teed it up to witness the coronation of the new “King.” Things have changed just a bit over the last 20 years. The course has since been “Tiger-Proofed” and updated for modern equipment and technology. The course will play as a Par-72 at 7,435 yards for the 10th year running, according to the official scorecard. After the 2006 renovation, the next two editions were played at 7,445, before settling on the current yardage. Greg Norman (1996) and Nick Price (1986) share the course record, 63. Branden Grace set the major championship scoring record last year at Royal Birkdale with 62. The tournament record is 270 posted by Tiger Woods (1997) and Jordan Spieth (2015). Jason Day holds the major championship scoring record of 20 under par at Whistling Straits in 2015.  TALES OF THE TAPE Speaking of 2015, it was a record-setting performance in multiple ways for Spieth. He is the only golfer to reach 19 under par at Augusta National Golf Club to this day and only a bogey on the final hole saw him fall back into a tie with Woods for the tournament record. He incredibly circled 28 birdies, breaking the old mark by three. He led wire-to-wire, becoming only the fifth player in Masters history to do so. The last to accomplish this feat was Raymond Floyd in 1976. The commanding performance was one for the ages, but it was helped out by the conditions during the week. The course played soft and wet, and the winds were non-existent, resulting in the top five players all posting double-digit scores under par. Justin Rose made 25 birdies, tying the old record, and lost by four shots! Of the 55 players to make the cut, 32 finished in red figures. Even though the scoring conditions were ripe, no player posted all rounds in the 60s. No player ever has. Spieth looked well on his way to repeating in 2016 before hole No. 12 made another in the history books. Spieth found the water from the tee and his resulting drop and eventually made seven, a quadruple bogey. His lead turned into a three-shot deficit and Danny Willett took home his first major championship and TOUR victory with a perfect, bogey-free 67 in the final round. With blustery conditions and chilly conditions, only six players were under par for the week. Spieth was looking to join Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90) and Tiger Woods (2001-02) as the only repeat champions. Instead, it was the Englishman who joined Charl Schwartzel as the only players this century to make the Masters their first victories on the PGA TOUR. Schwartzel (66), like Willett, also had the round of his life on Sunday in 2011, as he birdied the final four holes, the only player to do so to win the Masters. Garcia finally found the extra gear he was searching for in his previous 18 editions at Augusta National, as he won in a playoff against Rose. The Spaniard joined his heroes Seve Ballesteros and Jose-Maria Olazabal after making up a two-shot deficit with six holes to play to catch Rose and force a playoff, the 18th in tournament history. His 19th Masters and 74th major championship finally saw him cross the finish line first. Garcia’s ball-striking has always been his calling card and it was on full display. Nobody remembers any of the putts he made on the back nine because they were all inside five feet! The average winning age of a Masters champion was just over 35; Garcia was 37. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the Masters. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the Masters since 2013. Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer 2 Kyle Stanley 3 *Paul Casey 4 *Jordan Spieth 8 *Sergio Garcia 9 *Dustin Johnson 11 Gary Woodland 13 Patrick Cantlay 16 *Hideki Matsuyama 17 Tony Finau 21 Jon Rahm 25 *Justin Rose Bogey Avoidance Rank Golfer 1 *Jordan Spieth 3 *Paul Casey 4 *Dustin Johnson 5 Chez Reavie 6 Patrick Cantlay 7 *Ian Poulter 8 *Matt Kuchar 11 *Rickie Fowler 13 Webb Simpson 14 Jon Rahm 15 *Hideki Matsuyama 17 *Sergio Garcia 18 *Marc Leishman 19 Pat Perez 21 Justin Thomas 22 Tony Finau Par-4 Scoring Rank Golfer 1 *Jordan Spieth 2 Justin Thomas 3 *Paul Casey 4 *Hideki Matsuyama 4 Jon Rahm 6 Tony Finau 6 *Justin Rose 6 *Rickie Fowler 6 Francesco Molinari 6 *Dustin Johnson 6 Chez Reavie 15 *Ian Poulter 15 *Daniel Berger 15 *Matt Kuchar 15 *Sergio Garcia 15 Xander Schauffele 15 Kyle Stanley Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 1 *Hideki Matsuyama 3 *Dustin Johnson 5 *Phil Mickelson 5 *Rory McIlroy 7 Tony Finau 7 Patrick Cantlay 7 Jon Rahm 11 *Rickie Fowler 12 *Charl Schwartzel 12 *Justin Rose 12 *Charley Hoffman 18 *Jordan Spieth 18 Pat Perez 18 *Marc Leishman 18 Kyle Stanley 18 *Jason Day 24 Gary Woodland 24 Justin Thomas Gamers who use ONE SET of data to determine their paths won’t last long in any formats. Using absolutes doesn’t work either. There are too many factors, including having human beings behind the wheel, that make these declarations silly and unnecessary. For example, there is an old thought that you have to hit a draw to win the Masters. Jack Nicklaus won six green jackets, the most ever, playing a fade. Another misnomer is great putters win at Augusta. They sure do and they sure can. Does anyone rattle off Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett or Sergio Garcia as great putters? Well, they’ve won five of the last six here, and Watson has won TWICE, so that theory is also flakier than a pimento cheese sandwich left in the sunshine. There are many reasons why experience counts this week, but I’ll also point out a few examples of how it might not. This isn’t a course players can drop by and play as much as they like when they would like. There are finite opportunities to get acquainted if you’re not an annual attendee. I’ll point out Paul Casey (T6), Jason Day (T2), Jordan Spieth (T2) and Thomas Pieters (T4) have vanquished this theory. Heck, Day posted 12-under that included 64 and 68 in his first trip and didn’t win. That’s a record by the way for low score from a first-time participant. If you head back to 1979, Fuzzy Zoeller is the only player to win on his first try after 1950. Schwartzel, Spieth and Willett all won on their second try. Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson needed three. Experience is the trend but it doesn’t disqualify those without. Augusta National challenges every facet of the game and every club in the bag, but rewards excellent golf shots while punishing marginal ones. The multi-tiered greens are difficult to attack from the first cut, where the golf ball won’t hold any spin. Once on the greens, being below the hole is imperative to scoring, as the greens can run at any speed they would like. The risk-reward holes of the back nine remind us that Bobby Jones wanted action coming down the stretch to identify a champion, but it’s interesting that 22 of the last 27 winners have come from the final pairing. The five exceptions have all been since 2007 and include Zach Johnson (2007), Schwartzel (2011), Watson (2012), Scott (2013) and Willett (2016). There are ALWAYS exceptions to the rules! With uneven lies everywhere besides the tee boxes, elevation changes, closely-mown areas, nuanced greens, swirling winds and immense pressure on the weekend, even the best, most-experienced players (see: Garcia, Sergio) can and will struggle. I lean on the experience angle this week not to identify the winner, but rather to figure out who’s going to be lurking Sunday. I just want a chance. I can’t project 66 from Schwartzel or 67 from Willett on Sunday, so I’m searching for the most likely candidates. I’m leaning on players who know when to attack and from which spots and who might have learned a few lessons over the years. I’m leaning on guys who won’t get confused over which way a putt breaks or what the roars across the property could mean. I need guys who won’t care who is charging up the leaderboard or who the crowd is rooting for. Their names stick out like sore thumbs below and there’s a reason for that. Course Ratings: 2015: Fourteenth-most difficult of 52 played; 0.536 strokes above par. 2016: Third-most difficult of 50 played; 2.421 strokes above par. 2017: Second-most difficult of 50 played; 1.887 strokes above par. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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