Confidence Factor: Houston Open

With the first major championship on the horizon next week at the Masters, the Houston Open serves as the final chance to “win and get in”, if not already qualified. The Golf Club of Houston in Humble, Texas, will host 144 players of which 125 will be looking to cash their ticket to Augusta National Golf Club for the wonderful pomp and circumstance. With 19 players using this event as a tune up, don’t be surprised if one of the “others” steals this last-ditch chance to pop into the field. Of the last four winners at this event, three have taken advantage of being the last man in the field at the first major of the season. As fantasy players look to tighten up and gain every advantage before next week’s Masters, the pros in the field are trying to do the same. To entice a deeper and tougher field leading up to a major, the Golf Club of Houston has taken multiple steps to mimic Augusta National since assuming host duties in 2006. The majority of the changes were completed before the 2009 edition and have held true since. Pros who use this a tune-up expect the same conditions annually and GCH has obliged by making their greens perfect, creating closely-mown chipping areas, minimizing rough and are using the same mowing patterns as Augusta National. The course will tip out at 7,441 and play to Par-72 and luckily for all involved, the course was not significantly damaged after two hurricanes last autum and should be ready to go. Last year Sung Kang matched the tournament course record with 63 on Friday while Russell Henley matched the tournament record posting 20-under-par 268 in his victory. TALES OF THE TAPE (WINNERS) For the third time in four editions the eventual winner came from well off the pace to win at the Golf Club of Houston. Henley made up four shots on the final day posting 65 that included an incredible 10 birdies. His round was so good that he also squared a double on No. 9 and a bogey on No. 18, yet he still won by three shots! While his putter was white hot, his ball-striking was also on point and that led to a tournament-tying-best 27 birdies for the week. His 20-under total matched Phil Mickelson (2011) for the lowest total since the move to GCH. Sung Kang opened 65-63 (-17) before fading to second (71-72). Henley rode his wave of momentum to T11 at the Masters, the best finish since Anthony Kim was third in 2010. One stat pack that jumped off the page was the top seven in strokes-gained: putting all finished inside the top 12. The 2016 edition was interesting for a few reasons. The final group included eventual champion Jim Herman and Jamie Lovemark, both looking for their first wins on TOUR. One shot behind them entering Sunday was Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Russell Henley, all TOUR winners. Herman beat Lovemark (T18) by eight shots and held off Stenson by a shot and Johnson by two to pick up the check. Similarly to Henley, Herman had a great week on the greens and tee-to-green. The top 17 players posted four rounds ABOVE par for the WEEK and none were signed for on the weekend. You can see where Lovemark’s 76 got him! Following the stat above, the top nine in strokes-gained: putting all shared T13 or better for the week. Daniel Berger led the birdie category with 23. J.B. Holmes bombed and gouged his way to success in 2015 reminding gamers that hitting fairways while nice, is hardly a requirement this week. Taking the crooked numbers out of play is an acquired taste so it’s hardly shocking that the average winner here is in his mid-30’s. Holmes didn’t find many, if any fairways, but his opening round 65 and closing round 64 proved there’s more than one way to win on this layout. He began the final round six shots off the lead, the same as Matt Jones in 2014, before going out in 29 and posting 64 to get into a playoff. His 64 is the lowest by a winner and his third round score of 73 was the first over-par tally by a winner since 2004. He held off 2008 champ Johnson Wagner and soon-to-be Masters and U.S. Open winner Jordan Spieth for the title, defeating Wagner on the second playoff hole. Russell Henley led the event in ball-striking and Scott Piercy opened with 63 to tie the course record. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the Houston Open. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the Houston Open since 2013. Par-4 Scoring Rank Golfer 1 *Jordan Spieth 6 Tony Finau 6 Justin Rose 6 *Rickie Fowler 6 Lucas Glover 6 *Chez Reavie 15 Brandt Snedeker 15 Ian Poulter 15 *Daniel Berger 15 *Matt Kuchar 15 *Keegan Bradley 15 Jamie Lovemark 15 Robert Garrigus Strokes-gained: Putting Rank Golfer 1 Michael Thompson 2 *Rickie Fowler 3 Luke Donald 6 Jonas Blixt 8 Mackenzie Hughes 10 Shane Lowry 14 *Rafael Cabrera-Bello 15 Cody Gribble 18 Peter Malnati 21 Whee Kim 23 Blayne Barber 24 Camilo Villegas 25 *Russell Henley Bogey Avoidance Rank Golfer 1 *Jordan Spieth 2 Chad Campbell 5 *Chez Reavie 7 Ian Poulter 8 *Matt Kuchar 9 *Charles Howell III 10 Lucas Glover 11 *Rickie Fowler 11 *Bill Haas 20 Martin Flores 22 Tony Finau 23 Seamus Power 24 John Huh 25 Ryan Armour Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer 1 Martin Flores 4 *Jordan Spieth 5 Ryan Armour 6 Lucas Glover 9 Robert Garrigus 12 J.J. Henry 14 *Luke List 15 Chad Campbell 17 Tony Finau 20 *Keegan Bradley 25 Justin Rose Strokes-gained: Tee-to-Green Rank Golfer 2 *Jordan Spieth 9 Justin Rose 10 Ton Finau 13 *Luke List 16 *Rickie Fowler 18 Byeong Hun An 20 Lucas Glover 21 *Ryan Palmer 22 Ian Poulter 25 Bud Cauley GCH will try and protect par with water in play off the tee in over half of the holes, slick greens, deep bunkers and closely-mown areas. The multi-tiered greens will reward those who hit the proper section and test the putting acumen of those who don’t. GCH annually ranks as one of the “wettest” courses on TOUR as its water hazards gobble up plenty of errant shots. Scrambling for pars this week isn’t going to cut it but squaring bogeys are worse. No player has defended or won multiple titles since the move to GCH in 2006. Of the last four winners, none have any other TOUR event victories since their win at GCH. Weird. There are two schools of thought from pros this week as to why and why not to play. Many have remarked in interviews before and after the event that they prefer their “practice” to be measured. Chipping and putting in the backyard, while helpful to some, doesn’t do it for others. Whereas the greens here roll true and putts continue to go down for birdie, Jordan Spieth reminded us before last year’s event that while GCH has fantastic greens, NOTHING compares to Augusta National in this department. That’s another reminder that experience is a massive factor next week. Course Ratings: 2015: 11th easiest of 52 played; -1.145 strokes below par. 2016: 23rd-most difficult of 50 played; -0.115 strokes below par. 2017: 24th-most difficult of 50 played; -0.018 strokes below par.   Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfer swith multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

Click here to read the full article…