Confidence Factor: Fantasy golf advice for THE NORTHERN TRUST

The 2018 edition of the FedExCup Playoffs opens with a return to Ridgewood Country Club (par-71, 7,385) in Paramus, New Jersey as THE NORTHERN TRUST kicks off the four-event run to the FedExCup Championship. Of the 125 players who qualified for the Playoffs, 120 will tee it up this week as they will look to join the list of 10 different names that have hoisted the FedExCup Playoffs trophy. Dustin Johnson is the event defending champion as he defeated Jordan Spieth in a one-hole playoff last year at Glen Oaks Club. Ridgewood CC also served as the opening FedExCup event in 2010 (Matt Kuchar -12, 272) and 2008 (Vijay Singh -8, 276). Players are playing for a purse of $9 million and an increased FedExCup points value with 2,000 going to the champion along with $1.62 million. As with every postseason event, players who are not in the field will not be replaced as there are no alternates. The goal this week for those who do not pick up the trophy will be qualification for the Dell Technologies Championship next week at TPC Boston. The top 100 will fill out the Labor Day weekend field while those left behind will rest up for next season. TALE OF THE TAPE The A.W. Tillinghast design has been undergoing a Gil Hanse restoration since 1995. Even though the course isn’t used annually I still believe gamers can get a feel for what’s needed to be successful here. There’s no mystery how Vijay Singh was successful over his illustrious career. The ball-striking machine was a proper grinder who knew how to get the ball in the hole. A decade ago he won the first two events of the Playoffs and forced the authorities to revise the way the math works as there was no drama in the final two events. As is the case with new tracks on TOUR, ball-strikers who find the most fairways and greens will have the upper hand as the big-time putters will have to learn the greens. The birdie leaders in the inaugural event were noted flushers K.J. Choi (20), Sergio Garcia (19) and Paul Casey (18). Hunter Mahan opened the proceedings by setting the still-standing course record of 62 (-9) on Thursday. The cut was 143 (+1) and Singh required a playoff to beat Garcia. The 2010 edition used lift, clean and place during the first round so that undoubtedly helped the scoring average for the week. Tiger Woods and Vaughn Taylor opened with 65 (-6) to share the 18-hole lead before Jason Day (67-67) ramped it up by two (-8) for 36 holes. Kevin Streelman, the 54-hole leader in 2008, posted 63 to get into the fight and his 20 birdies were the most for the week. It’s hardly a surprise he was engaged as his family is from the area and his grandparents are buried in a cemetery on the property. Martin Laird fired 65 and Dustin Johnson 64 in Round 3 but Laird held the 54-hole lead. Kuchar’s 66 on Sunday made up five shots as he went on to beat Laird in a one-hole playoff. Perfect weather during the final three rounds lead to under-par scoring for the week (70.977). It’s not surprising the 2014 edition provided the lowest scores of the three events as Ridgewood hosted for the third time in just six years. Familiarity breeds comfort so it was hardly a surprise to see scoring drop significantly. From 160 rounds under-par in the inaugural event there were 186 in 2014 as the scoring was even lower than the 2010 event (70.809). Jason Day made his presence felt again as he was the co-54-hole leader as he shared the low round of the week (64) and led the field in birdies with 22. A young up-and-comer at the time, Jordan Spieth, circled just one less. Of the top 10 players on the final leaderboard, seven were ranked in the top 10 Strokes-Gained: Putting. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2008 or is a past champion Strokes-Gained: Putting Rank  Golfer  1  *Jason Day  2  Phil Mickelson  5  Alex Noren  6  Justin Rose  7  Beau Hossler  8  Emiliano Grillo  9  Kevin Kisner 12 Webb Simpson 13 Brian Harman 15 Seamus Power 16 *Dustin Johnson 20 Brian Gay 21 Brandt Snedeker 23 Jimmy Walker 24 Whee Kim 27 Tiger Woods Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  Justin Thomas  3  Francesco Molinari  5  Luke List  6  Keegan Bradley  7  Patrick Cantlay  8  Jon Rahm  9  Tommy Fleetwood 10 Justin Rose 11 Tiger Woods 12 *Adam Scott 13 Bryson DeChambeau 15 Ryan Moore 17 Rafa Cabrera-Bello 18 Byeong-Hun An 19 Tony Finau 20 Gary Woodland 21 *Kevin Streelman 22 *Paul Casey 23 Jordan Spieth 25 Ian Poulter 25 Brooks Koepka Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  Jon Rahm  4  Justin Thomas  5  Justin Rose  6  Phil Mickelson  7  Brooks Koepka  8  Tommy Fleetwood  9  *Jason Day 10 Chesson Hadley 11 Tony Finau 12 Keith Mitchell 13 Jordan Spieth 14 Bryson DeChambeau 16 *Ryan Palmer 17 Aaron Wise 18 Tiger Woods 19 Brandon Harkins 20 Grayson Murray 21 J.J. Spaun 22 Sam Saunders 23 Marc Leishman 24 Pat Perez 25 *Martin Laird Bogey Avoidance Rank  Golfer  1  *Kevin Streelman  2  Webb Simpson  5  Ryan Moore  7  *Dustin Johnson  8  Justin Rose  9  Chris Kirk 10 Jordan Spieth 11 William McGirt 12 Charles Howell III 13 *Matt Kuchar 14 Joel Dahmen 15 Andrew Putnam 15 Zach Johnson 17 Emiliano Grillo 18 Justin Thomas 20 Chez Reavie 22 *Jason Day 24 *Kevin Na Ridgewood Country Club was originally designed by A.W. Tillinghast and consists of 27 holes. For THE NORTHERN TRUST, a composite course is being used for the fourth time. This year, the holes are slightly different from the 2014 edition and multiple other changes have been made. Hanse has added six acres of fairway, 15,000 square feet over the greens and added new tees. Bunker restoration (new sand) continues (think more, not less) and the step-cut rough has been eliminated. Stretching now to 7,385 yards from 7,319, tree removal in addition to the new tee boxes and expanded fairways will give players more options of attack. Having to plot shot-by-shot instead of just bombing away will separate the class and these added design features should favor the elite players. At almost 7,400 yards the meat of the course lies around the turn. Taking up residency on holes 7 thru 10 are four of the five par-4 holes measuring over 470 yards while the finishing hole is the fifth. The added par-5 this week won’t have many complaining but the three are listed at 588 yards or better with the biggest of the bunch tipping out at 626. The Poa annua greens will provide a lumpy and bumpy ride so I’ll angle in on those who have done the business on these surfaces in the past. Getting to the greens will be the first order of business as the putting surfaces are heavily bunkered. Off the tee, doglegs, trees and canted fairways will provide a challenge to hit the proper tier on the greens, which measure just less than 5,000 square feet, below average of TOUR standards in size. With a field this deep and a rotation of courses it’s obvious to see why there have been 11 different winners. Tillinghast also designed Bethpage Black where Reed won this event in 2016 and Emiliano Grillo tied for second with Sean O’Hair. Nick Watney outlasted Brandt Snedeker at the 2012 event also at Bethpage Black. Jimmy Walker and Jason Day seemed to enjoy Baltusrol, another Tillinghast 27-hole creation, that same summer during the PGA Championship. Tiger Woods suggested in his Tuesday news conference that the course was playing soft, wet and long. He also pointed out more rain is on the way later in the week. This suggests a lean to the power players off the tee, similar to Bellerive, if target golf is the case. The Bubble Only the top 100 advance to the following week Name Game Five players are missing out this week QUICK FACTS: • Jason Day and Gary Woodland each have three bogey-free rounds at Ridgewood CC. • Tiger Woods is the only player to win the FedExCup title twice. • This is the fifth consecutive season with a new No. 1 player in the FedExCup standings entering the Playoffs after Woods was the leader in 2012-13. • Only Spieth and Billy Horschel have MC in the first event and have gone on to win the title. • Singh is the only winner of the first event to win the overall title. • Heath Slocum (No. 124) is the lowest ranked player to win an event in the Playoffs (THE NORTHERN TRUST, 2009). • The lowest starting point for the Playoffs winner is No. 69 by Horschel in 2014. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.  

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