Confidence Factor: Fantasy golf advice for the CIMB Classic

Kevin Tway will look to open the season with back-to-back victories as the PGA TOUR heads to Malaysia for the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur (West Course) this week. 2017 champion and new father Pat Perez will be in attendance and will look to join Ryan Moore (2014-15) and Justin Thomas (2016-17) as the only players to win this event since it has moved to TPC Kuala Lumpur in 2014. The sixth edition will feature 78 players playing 72 holes (no cut) to earn a piece of the $7 million prize pool. The winner will take home $1.26 million, 500 FedExCup points and a great position on the season-long leaderboard after just two events. TPC Kuala Lumpur has been bludgeoned over the last three seasons to the tune of 73 under par by those winners. Thomas started the barrage in the 2016 season event as he posted the tournament record of 262 (-26) on the 7,005 yard par-72 layout. He defended his title (23 under) the following season while Perez racked out 24 under to win comfortably by four shots last year. The hot and humid conditions, jet lag and new playing conditions could level out the field more than ever this year but I don’t think we’re going to see a single-digit winning score! Don’t forget the Fantasy Games at PGATOUR.COM are up-and-running as well. Check out the new format for the weekly game and enter your team(s)! I’m not going to take you all the way back to Ryan Moore’s first or second victories as the course was brand-new and everyone was just getting settled in. I will point out that Moore’s COMBINED total from those two victories, 31 under, was just five shots better than Thomas’ first win the following year. Thomas was playing the event for the first time and torched the joint for a new tournament record of 26 under as he defeated Adam Scott by a shot. Preferred lies were used in the first two rounds and the course record was broken each time. Scott Piercy opened the proceedings with 10 birdies (no bogeys) for 62 and a three-shot lead. Thomas followed with 61 in Round 2 with 11 birdies (no bogeys) but his lead of 15 under at the halfway point was only one shot better than Brendan Steele. To say scoring was ridiculous would be an understatement. Thomas and Steele were knotted up on 20 under after 54 holes before a closing-round 66 saw Thomas become the youngest winner at 22 years and six months. His card was overflowing with 30 birdies and two eagles against only six bogeys and a final-round double. Kevin Na was tied with Scott and Thomas heading into the back nine but finished two back with Steele in third. As Moore did before him, Thomas defended his title but this time he did it from coming off-the-pace. He was the co-leader with 64 after Round 1 and he went on to lead by two over Anirban Lahiri after 36 holes on 14 under. A 71 in Round 3 saw him trail by four shots as Lahiri led the way. Lahiri won the Maybank Malaysian Open on this track in 2015 so there’s little surprise why he’s comfortable here. Thomas made him uncomfortable in the final round as his bogey-free 64 was eight shots better than the Indian’s 72. Thomas repeated easily as he posted 23 under to defeat Hideki Matsuyama by three shots while Lahiri shared third. The rain stayed away after the first round but the heat and humidity never go away. Without ball-in-hand the lowest round of the event was 63 (Russell Knox, Scott Hend) yet Thomas still found time to circle 29 birdies to lead the field. That’s 59 birdies in his first 144 holes at this event! There were a few events last season that were looking to crown champions for a third-year running but it wasn’t to be at any of them. Thomas was first up as he was looking to add to his 49 under total. He posted four more rounds in the red (11 under; T17) but he did take his total of birdies to 80 in his first 216 holes. The story last season was Perez as was 21 under through 54 holes. His four-shot lead heading into the final round ending up being plenty enough as he won by that same margin. He only had three squares on his card to go with 27 birdies in an effortless performance. Not even big-hitting and TOUR Championship winner Xander Schauffele could put any pressure on in the final group. Veteran Perez taught the youngster a lesson by beating him by three shots and eventually taking home the trophy over Keegan Bradley while Schauffele and Sung Kang shared third, six shots off Perez’s total. The champ played his final 10 holes even par and still routed the field! Paul Casey (T7) had an interesting week as he was one of two players to post 63 but his opening round 77 set him too far behind to contend. Gamers, please be aware that TPC Kuala Lumpur has been the host for just the last five years. This event was hosted at The Mines Resort & Golf Club in 2010, 2011, and 2012 and those results are of no consequence this week. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 30-ish in each category last season. * – Finished inside the top 10 since the move to TPC Kuala Lumpur in 2014. Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  2  *Justin Thomas 11 *Keegan Bradley 12 Byeong-Hun An 12 *Ryan Moore 19 *Gary Woodland 24 *Scott Piercy 25 *Rafa Cabrera-Bello 26 Kevin Chappell 27 Stewart Cink 28 *Paul Casey 30 J.B. Holmes Strokes-Gained: Putting Rank  Golfer  4  Beau Hossler 11 *Kevin Na 12 Emiliano Grillo 18 Brandt Snedeker 19 Brian Gay 21 Whee Kim 23 Billy Horschel 24 *Jimmy Walker Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer  2  Sam Ryder  3  Billy Horschel  4  Kyle Stanley  6  C.T. Pan  9  *Rafa Cabrera-Bello 10 *Gary Woodland 15 *Scott Piercy 18 Andrew Putnam 20 Jason Kokrak 27 *Charles Howell III 31 *Brendan Steele 33 *Justin Thomas 34 J.J. Spaun 35 Keith Mitchell 36 *Keegan Bradley Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank  Golfer  3  *Justin Thomas 12 Ollie Schniederjans 14 *Marc Leishman 18 *Kevin Na 19 Ryan Palmer 22 Brian Gay 29 *Cameron Smith 31 *Xander Schauffele Par-5 Scoring Rank  Golfer  3  *Justin Thomas  9  *Gary Woodland  9  Billy Horschel 17 Kevin Tway 17 Bronson Burgoon 17 Keith Mitchell 24 *Paul Casey 24 Ryan Palmer 24 *Keegan Bradley 33 *Cameron Smith 33 Jason Kokrak 33 *Peter Uihlein After the 2017 event, the PGA TOUR along with TPC Kuala Lumpur decided it was time for changes. No major renovations had taken place on this track since 2006 but after the last three winning totals adding up to 73 under par, I could see why it was time. After the event last season the paspalum grass that covered every inch of the property was ripped up and replaced by Bermudagrass. The Celebration strain took care of all of the fairways, tees and rough while TifEagle was the go-to choice for the putting surfaces. This combination is used at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook as well so some of these guys will feel right at home! The renovations also included additional tee boxes, tree removal for sunlight and angles, repositioned fairway bunkers and pin placements on certain holes. The rationale behind the change was to make the West course firmer, faster and more difficult for the game’s best. Celebration fairways were narrowed and should provide a firmer, faster surface in the infancy. Gone are the days of target golf where balls would land and barely roll out. Approach shots into the newly-grassed greens won’t be as accepting either as the new surface should be more firm than soft. Loose shots will now faced shaved mounds and run-off areas that will bring more than one club into the equation for recovery around the green. The rough won’t be penal in length but it should have more opportunities to affect scoring if balls run through the fairways and greens. Once on the greens, the new TifEagle shouldn’t run as smoothly just yet so that won’t encourage scoring. Mounds and sloping on the greens have been calmed to help with extra pin placements and to accommodate eventually quicker greens. These changes will be noticeable but I’m not sure they are going to correct scoring immediately. These guys are very quick learners and won’t need much time to figure out barely 7,000 yards on surfaces they are familiar with on TOUR. The pros who find the most fairways and greens will have the most chances to make birdies again this week. A hot putter and patience on the new surface will be a key as well. Par-5 scoring is a must this week as the first three on the card check in at 503, 518 and 539 yards. On the inward nine there are two drivable Par-4 holes before the last par-5, No. 18, measures 634 yards. In the end, there are four par-5 holes on a track that barely stretches over 7,000 yards so these new changes won’t be a tremendous bother. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention!  NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. I have not included ANY DATA PREVIOUS TO 2015 as not to confuse course history with event history. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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