Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the Fort Worth Invitational

Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the Fort Worth Invitational

The PGA TOUR wraps up in Texas this season with its fifth and final event at the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club. Last week the TOUR was just south of Dallas at brand-new Trinity Forest. The script flips 100 percent this week as Colonial Country Club is one of the most respected and historic stops annually. The rich history of Colonial stretches back with this event to 1946 and is the longest running event on TOUR at the same course. The John Bredemus-Perry Maxwell design was made over by Keith Foster in 2008 but still resonates with the modern game over 80 years later. Playing 7,209 yards to par-70, it’s neither short nor long but it’s not straight either. Kevin Kisner returns in an attempt to defend his title. His winning total of 10-under-par 270 saw an American don the plaid jacket for the ninth time in the last 10 years with Adam Scott in 2014 being the exception. Kisner will try and attempt a feat that has only been accomplished by the great Ben Hogan: successfully defending. There’s a reason this place has the moniker of “Hogan’s Alley,” one of many to be fair, as the legendary Texan won this event five times and twice defended his victory. But, if leaning on Texans is your plan for selecting a winner this week, remember only two native sons have won in the last 30 years (Ben Crenshaw, 1990; Jordan Spieth 2016). The winner, regardless of where he’s from, will pocket $1,278,000 and 500 FedExCup points for his victory. As we can see above, there are multiple ways to find success at Colonial so it’s hardly a surprise this course rates so highly annually with the TOUR pros. The one factor that will have the attention of every player in the field will be the weather. Last year the cut fell at 144, 4-OVER-par, the highest total since 1999 as the event began with temperatures in the 90s and winds gusting up to 30 mph. As has been the case in eight times over the last nine, the 54-hole leader did not hang on to win. Webb Simpson began the final round two shots to the good, but Kisner rallied from three shots behind to claim victory. Kisner got up-and-down from the back bunker on the last to avoid a three-man playoff with Jordan Spieth, who with Jon Rahm and Sean O’Hair, led the field in birdies with 21. Rahm had the best chance of the trio to force the action but his 12-footer at No. 18 for birdie didn’t go. Kisner’s victory was his third consecutive top-five finish at Colonial. Steve Stricker had the low round of the week with 63. Every year when Colonial rolls around, gamers are reminded about how good Spieth plays here. The 2016 champ also has a pair of T2s, a T7 and T14 and 16 of 20 career rounds are in the 60s. The weather was wet in 2016 and ball-in-hand was used in closely mown areas the first three rounds. Spieth’s dominance included birdies on the final three holes and included making 150 feet of putts on the day. He co-led the field in birdies (22) and bogeys (5) and led the field in scrambling. Spieth’s victory was also symbolic as he won by three shots making him only the second winner in the last 11 years to win by more than one shot and he also is the only winner in the last eight years to hold the 54-hole lead. The top five players posted all four rounds in red figures for the week while the top 16 players accounted for only six total rounds over par. Spieth’s winning total of 263 was the second-lowest this decade behind tournament-record setter Zach Johnson in 2010 (259). Chad Campbell and Matt Kuchar both carded 63s for the co-low round of the week. Campbell is the last person to set the course record with 61 in 2004. He impressively set the mark with two bogeys. The Ben Hogan Award, presented this week annually since 2002 to the best collegiate golfer, has only had one winner at Hogan’s Alley. Chris Kirk was the first to claim both in 2015. He posted 12-under-par 268 as preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect for Rounds 1 through 3 and through the green in the final round. Kirk made every birdie putt he looked at and led the field with 21 for the week. For those of you keeping score, Spieth circled 20 in this edition. Colonial, at par-70 doesn’t get “low” but there aren’t many bad rounds conceded, either. The top 17 players had a total of four rounds above par for the event. I wrote for THE PLAYERS Championship about the 54-hole leaders at that event who couldn’t close the deal. Interestingly enough, you’ll find some of their names here again this week as players that have lingered entering the final round. I’m not a detective but even I can connect those dots. 2015: Kevin Na and Ian Poulter, both 11 under. 2016: Webb Simpson and Ryan Palmer, both 11 under, one shot back. 2017: Webb Simpson was 9 under, two ahead of Danny Lee. Simpson and Lee were the final pairing at TPC Sawgrass two weeks ago and Na was in the hunt last week at Trinity Forest collecting T6. I’ll point out Palmer is a member at Colonial as well! NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2010 or is a former winner. Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer  2  *Jordan Spieth  4  *Adam Scott  5  *Kevin Streelman  7  *Pat Perez  8  *Scott Piercy 13 *Rickie Fowler 14 C.T. Pan 15 Russell Knox 18 Emiliano Grillo 19 Patrick Cantlay 20 Andrew Putnam 21 Cameron Percy 22 *Brian Harman 23 *Jon Rahm 25 *Adam Hadwin 25 *Chez Reavie Birdie or Better Percentage Rank  Golfer  2  *Jon Rahm  5  Justin Rose  8  Grayson Murray 10 Cameron Smith 12 Aaron Wise 14 Chesson Hadley 15 Bryson DeChambeau 16 *Ryan Palmer 17 Ollie Schniederjans 18 Sam Saunders 19 *Pat Perez 21 Brandon Harkins 22 *Jimmy Walker Scrambling Rank  Golfer  1  *Webb Simpson  3  *Jordan Spieth  6  *Rickie Fowler  7  Louis Oosthuizen  9  *Kevin Na 10 *Kevin Streelman 11 *Chris Kirk 12 Alex Cejka 13 *Chez Reavie 15 Cameron Smith 19 *Brandt Snedeker 21 Aaron Baddeley 23 William McGirt 26 Justin Rose   Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  4  *Rickie Fowler  4  *Jordan Spieth  4  Justin Rose  9  *Webb Simpson  9  *Chez Reavie 13 *Kevin Streelman 13 *Scott Piercy 17 Chesson Hadley 17 Cameron Smith 17 J.J. Spaun 17 *Brian Harman 17 Emiliano Grillo 17 *Zach Johnson 17 *Matt Kuchar Last week the brand-new Trinity Forest had no trees, no rough and no water leaving its defense to 88 bunkers and Mother Nature. The massive landing areas off the tee consisted of 100 acres of Trinity Zoysia fairway. The Champions Bermuda greens provided 13,000 square feet, on average, to aim at and only were running at 11 feet on the Stimpmeter. What a difference a week makes! Colonial Country Club will provide tree-lined and dog-legged fairways that will require players to work the ball both ways off the tee and only provide 24 acres landing space. Errant shots will find Bermuda around 3 inches that will make the pros think twice as they attack greens that measure on average 4,500 square feet. With 85 bunkers plus four water hazards lurking, accuracy isn’t a premium this week but poor shots have a much better chance of being punished. Patience will be tested in the first five holes as Colonial will lull the field to sleep with a gimme par-5 (easiest last year) and a short par-4 to open. Then it’s off to the “Horrible Horseshoe” to see who is paying attention. Annually these holes play in the top five of most-difficult holes for the week. Those who don’t take advantage of the first two holes won’t be in a good mood anyhow, arriving to this trio that will set the tone for the rest of the round. The pros will have to adjust this week as well as Bentgrass greens return for the first time since the Masters. This is great news for all putters as the greens here are notoriously some of the best conditioned on TOUR so don’t be surprised to see plenty go in! As is the case with below-average sized greens, hitting the proper spot will give plenty of chances for birdie. As this event has shown over the years, one style of play doesn’t dominate and that’s one of the main reasons this field is always very solid. It doesn’t hurt that every hole doesn’t need a 300-yard carry, either. With only two par-5 holes and one measuring comfortably over 600 yards, the bomb-and-gouge crew won’t have much of an advantage this week. The 85 bunkers are plentiful but time has shown us, like the greens, they are almost perfect as well. The speedy Bentgrass greens and navigating the wind down the stretch on Sunday are both acquired tastes. Sergio Garcia (2001) is the last maiden winner and the last, first-time winner on TOUR so experience pays this week. As always, there are exceptions to the rule and I’ve counted 10 first-timers since 2010 that have cracked the top 10. The list of winners here also points to successful players at the Masters over the years as well. It shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Perry Maxwell finished up Augusta National after Alistair Mackenzie’s death before the completion of the design. Colonial is not for everyone and Ben Hogan famously remarked that the only ball that can get you in trouble around this place is a straight ball. Sharp gamers will notice the players who are NOT here this week and might work backward from there. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.     

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+450
Bryson DeChambeau+800
Justin Thomas+1600
Collin Morikawa+2200
Jon Rahm+2200
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Ludvig Aberg+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Brooks Koepka+4000
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AdventHealth Championship
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Kensei Hirata+2000
Mitchell Meissner+2200
SH Kim+2200
Neal Shipley+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
Hank Lebioda+3000
Chandler Blanchet+3500
Pierceson Coody+3500
Rick Lamb+3500
Trey Winstead+3500
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Regions Tradition
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Stewart Cink+550
Steve Stricker+650
Ernie Els+700
Steven Alker+750
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1200
Bernhard Langer+1400
Jerry Kelly+1600
Alex Cejka+1800
Retief Goosen+2500
Richard Green+2500
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US Open 2025
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Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
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USA-150
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Pick ‘Em Preview: Valspar ChampionshipPick ‘Em Preview: Valspar Championship

We got ourselves a baller in the house. PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live is just four weeks old, but Rob already has hung up a pair of top 10s. After finishing third of about 5,700 entries at The Honda Classic, he wrangled a 10th among a little over 7,000 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Yeah, only the top five pay, but it’s a good thing – for you, wink wink – that he’s ineligible for prize money. As Rob himself declared at the outset, it’s always easier to win when a new game is launched. Not only is there a learning curve en masse, but traditionally there are fewer people against whom to compete until momentum builds. The expectation – and the plan, naturally – is for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live to grow, but only the top five cash no matter how many are entered. In this week’s Draws and Fades, Rob walks you through his process that led to his performance at THE PLAYERS. It includes an accidental discovery of the difference in the timing of when the odds are updated on the interface (where the game is hosted) and PointsBet’s app. Capitalize on it. The Valspar Championship has us settling into what is a more familiar construct of a field. It’s more difficult to uncover the gems, but that’s why Glass and Rob collaborate for this weekly file in addition to their regular contributions across the FANTASY page. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor their progress as Influencers; however, given Rob’s early success, you likely wouldn’t have to scroll or swipe for long to find him on the main leaderboard. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. WEEKLONG Outright Rob … Denny McCarthy (+8000) Gosh, it feels good to have the honor again. Even better, with every passing week, I’m feeling the rhythm of the game. There’s no reason not to let a reach ride for a while. Remain patient and let the play develop. I omitted deeper analysis on McCarthy in my preview material, but not because he doesn’t make sense. There are just some guys who get overcovered for stretches for various reasons, so when the opportunity to expand the lens is presented, I take advantage. He’s among the most accurate off the tee and his putting takes the pressure off his mediocre irons. So, in a field with considerable strength at the top, but in a tournament with established competitive balance, I prefer the strong position of opening with a non-winner who has a decently balanced bag and a little mojo. Glass … Russell Knox (+6000) The Jacksonville resident battled through four rounds at par or better in his backyard at TPC Sawgrass before picking up his second top 10 (T6) of 2022. Rolling into Innisbrook on three consecutive T24-or-better finishes on the track, his three best from eight previous trips, suggests he has the digits to crack the code. The Florida grass and weather shouldn’t bother him and neither will be flying under the radar. I’m moving against a massive winner’s trend of succeeding early at this event but his play has been more than steady with five consecutive paydays, including a T7 at Sony on a demanding driving golf course at Waialae. Top 10 Glass … Alex Smalley (+1100) After seeing my dude peg Kisner at +1400 for a top 10 last week, I’m inspired to catch one of my own BIG FISH. Smalley didn’t have to fight the conditions for FIVE days last week and has been churning out results in 2022. Making the cut at Genesis, Honda and Arnold Palmer suggests he’s not intimidated by big ball-striking tracks. He’s in the top 75 of distance, fairways and greens in regulation, all of which plays this week. Let’s ride! Rob … Bubba Watson (+525) Glass is right about one thing, I am a dude who nailed Kisner last week – I also love his approach for Smalley – but I was grateful that the Top 10 bets never unlocked during THE PLAYERS, at least when I was paying attention, which was quite a bit. After a second-round 74, Kisner sat T22, so I may have been persuaded to modify the selection. We’ll never know, it doesn’t matter and I don’t care! Unlike THE PLAYERS where the depth of the field begets strong value deep in the ranks, the Valspar Championship encourages a conservative choice to benefit from a smaller sample size worthy of it. Watson is No. 8 in my Power Rankings. His firepower alone tempers his odds, but that value is strong considering he’s finished a respective T4 and T13 in the last two editions of the tournament. He also was the victim of Harold Varner III’s crazy-long birdie conversion at the buzzer of the Saudi Invite in early February. The home-state vibes and chill atmosphere at Copperhead are bonuses. Top 20 Rob … Vaughn Taylor (+700) As long as this unlocks, I’m going to swing for the fence before the tournament starts, but even if it doesn’t, the strategy of not making contact doesn’t cost as much as a more aggressive decision elsewhere. Consider that the longest odds on the board for a Top 20 are just +1700. Solid, but not necessarily game-changing when all you care about is a top-five finish. Taylor checks the boxes for converging trends, and that’s good enough for me. He finished T18 (2019) and T6 (2021) in the last two editions of the tournament, and he went for a T7 in his last start in Puerto Rico. That top 10 got him into the field this week. He’s one of my Sleepers. Glass … Mito Pereira (+400) Hitting it great here is paramount unless you scramble like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed, so I’ll run out fresh blood again with Pereira. His numbers off the tee and into greens stick out for me, and so does his T15 at Genesis (first time) and Honda (T30). I’ll toss in a T25 at Torrey Pines just to reinforce his strength tee to green. There’s no faking it at Riviera or Torrey Pines, so I’ll roll the dice. ROUND 1 Leader Rob … Patton Kizzire (+10000) When I joined Glass on his radio show on the Thursday afternoon of THE PLAYERS, I told him that he knew that I wasn’t going to let him bask for long after he had connected with Rory McIlroy as the R1 leader at Bay Hill the previous week. Tommy Fleetwood answered at TPC Sawgrass, and at four times the kickback. Boom. Quite simply, the strategy paid off. While Fleetwood was in the more fortunate wave, the plan all along was to toss out a guy who went out early. What’s more, and coincidentally, he had been a R1 leader at THE PLAYERS before. As I also explained and promised last week, my strategy henceforth will be to grab a guy in the early wave and remain fluid throughout the day. At Copperhead, I want my choice to navigate The Snake Pit mid-round and not at the end. Holes 16, 17 and 18 always average over par, but the par-5 first hole is one of the easiest on the entire PGA TOUR. Therefore, I want him to pounce on it not only after The Snake Pit but once he’s warm, so in addition to focusing only on the early wavers, I care only about guys starting on No. 10. Kizzire goes off 10 at 8:46 a.m. ET. He’s seventh on TOUR in first-round scoring average (68.15) and tops among the commitments. He’s opened 12 of his 13 starts this season with red numbers. His lowest score among 14 rounds at Copperhead is a 5-under 66 in the opening round of the tournament last year. Glass … Keegan Bradley (+5000) I rode the roller coaster of self-inflicted wounds last week with the big-boy ball-striker at TPC Sawgrass. My pre-tournament OUTRIGHT WINNER (at +8000) found himself one shot off the lead on the back nine, but I had already abandoned ship. I’M WEAK, I KNOW. A fantastic round turned to dust late on MONDAY but his form was never in question. Rob’s man-crush – well, ONE of them – opened here last year with 65, tied the 36-hole record and played from the final group on Sunday. There are many, many worse plays than this on the board this week! 3-Ball Glass … Joel Dahmen (ENTER ODDS HERE) over Andrew Landry and Michael Thompson First-round leader on debut here in 2019 takes on Landry (5 consecutive MC) and Thompson (4 consecutive MC before T60 last week). Dahmen’s T33 extends a run of four straight on TOUR, so I’ll ride the hottest hand of the trio. Rob … David Lipsky (+194) over Sahith Theegala and Bernd Wiesberger Remember, the reward outweighs failure when it comes to a single round, and because we’re credited with coins valued at just one-quarter the odds, go heavy on the risk. A winning bet at +100 yields 25 coins. Double the odds and you bank just 50 coins. In your pursuit of the top five for prize money, the difference is negligible if you lose. But because it’s golf, the law of averages is going to pay you more often than you think it will. I went heavy in all nine of my 3-balls at THE PLAYERS. Four came through for a value of 745 coins, and I was shut out in the finale (out of a possible 655 coins), but that haul represented just shy of only 18 percent of my overall, and I finished 509 coins outside the top five in a week when only two of the top 10 were paid by Cameron Smith’s opening outright line of +3300. (For more detail, jump to my Draws and Fades linked at the top.) So, I’m keeping it simple and leaning on a worldly veteran in Lipsky whose ball-striking is more encouraging than the feel game of his younger fellow rookie, Theegala, and the underachieving Wiesberger, who has only two top 10s in 65 PGA TOUR starts across 10 seasons. Make the Cut Glass … Russell Knox (-225) For reasons stated above, this makes sense. His game thrives tee to green and that’s what is required this week. When in doubt, I prefer riding the heat. Rob … Alex Noren (-200) Kevin Kisner (-180) is the only option with longer odds, but the street loves the Swede, so I might as well hop on the bandwagon. Noren finished T21 in his only appearance here last year. He’s also missed only two cuts in his last 12 starts in tournaments worldwide with a cut. He’s cashed in five straight upon arrival, two of which for a top 10.

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