Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the BMW Championship

The magic number this week on TOUR is 30 as the remaining 69 players left in the FedExCup Playoffs jostle for the final invitations this week at the Aronimink Golf Club outside Philadelphia. With Daniel Berger (No. 65) withdrawing Tuesday morning, it will be one less body to worry about as the final 30 spots will be filled for a change, albeit a small one if not positioned correctly after this week, to win a $10 million bonus as FedExCup champion. This week will afford the same 2,000 FedExCup points and $1.62 million first-prize check to the winner and will also push him into the top five for next week. Remember, the top five players entering East Lake in two weeks are the only players who are guaranteed the $10 million bonus if they win. Everyone else will need help from their friends! The BMW Championship makes its debut in the Philadelphia area as Aronimink Golf Club hosts a FedExCup Playoffs event for the first time. Gamers will do well to remember this track was the interim host of Tiger Woods’ AT&T National in 2010 and 2011 but plenty has changed since those events were played. The Donald Ross classic from the late 1920s plays differently today than it did in the early 10s of this century. I’ve listed the two winners and their stats from both tournaments below so gamers can pick up on a general understanding of what it takes to win here. Just like the two previous FedExCup events, Gil Hanse was also in charge of this restoration. Bryson DeChambeau should be absolutely ecstatic about this development as he’s 34-under-par with two wins in the first two events, both on Hanse restorations. TALE OF THE TAPE Aronimink took up the banner in 2010 for the AT&T National as its host course, Congressional Country Club, was undergoing renovations for the 2011 U.S. Open. The original Donald Ross design had grown out of its original routing but provided a stern test in the first week of July. Then 29-year old Justin Rose led after 36, 54 and 72 holes as he picked up his first win in the Philadelphia area. He would return in 2013 to Merion to win the U.S. Open so it’s obvious he prefers an old-school layout. In usual Rose fashion, he parred the place to death on the back nine in the final round as he made his five-shot lead hold up. His 64 in Round 2 wasn’t bested on the week and only 24 players finished the event in red numbers. Remember, this was an invitational event of 120 with a cut that landed on 143 (+3). That’s not the case this week as everyone will get four cracks at it. Tiger Woods had four cracks at it and didn’t break 70 in four tries. The following year another ball-striker in his late 20s, Nick Watney blasted away a new course record and a convincing two-shot victory with a closing 62-66 weekend. His final round was bogey-free as he beat playing partner young Rickie Fowler by eight shots. The field this time around saw 33 players find red numbers for the week but only three completed play with all three rounds in the 60s. Charles Howell III is the only player of that trio returning this week. Along with Watney’s 62, Chris Kirk turned in 63 and Webb Simpson 64 for the low rounds of the week. Even though it was Woods’ event, he missed the 2011 edition before winning at Congressional the following summer. When there is a “new” track being used the same formula will remain in place. The advantage goes to those who keep the ball in play and pepper GIR while staying out of trouble around and on the greens. Please remember the historical information below is to assess who has been playing well this time of the year and is not indicative of their previous attempts at Aronimink. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2007 or is a past champion – bold Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  Francesco Molinari  3  Justin Thomas  4  *Patrick Cantlay  5  *Henrik Stenson  6  Luke List  7  Bryson DeChambeau  8  Keegan Bradley  9  *Justin Rose 10 Tommy Fleetwood 11 *Tiger Woods 12 *Rory McIlroy 13 *Tony Finau 14 Brooks Koepka 15 *Jon Rahm 15 *Adam Scott 18 Byeong-Hun An 19 Rafa Cabrera-Bello 20 Gary Woodland 21 *Jordan Spieth 22 *Rickie Fowler 23 *Paul Casey 24 *Hideki Matsuyama 25 *Scott Piercy Strokes-Gained: Putting Rank  Golfer  1  *Jason Day  2  *Phil Mickelson  5  Beau Hossler  6  Alex Noren  9  *Webb Simpson 11 Emiliano Grillo 12 Kevin Kisner 13 Brian Harman 14 *Justin Rose 15 *Dustin Johnson 20 Brian Gay 22 *Kevin Na Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  *Justin Rose  3  Justin Thomas  4  *Jordan Spieth  4  *Rickie Fowler  4  *Jon Rahm  7  *Jason Day  7  *Phil Mickelson  7  *Webb Simpson  7  Brooks Koepka  7  *Zach Johnson  7  *Henrik Stenson 15 *Chez Reavie 15 Bryson DeChambeau 15 *Hideki Matsuyama 15 *Tiger Woods 15 *Chris Kirk 15 *Tony Finau 25 J.J. Spaun 25 Patrick Reed 25 *Brandt Snedeker 25 *Patrick Cantlay 25 *Rory McIlroy 25 *Kevin Na 25 Kyle Stanley Bogey Avoidance Rank  Golfer  1  *Webb Simpson  2  *Henrik Stenson  4  *Rickie Fowler  4  *Dustin Johnson  8  *Justin Rose  9  *Jordan Spieth 10 *Chris Kirk 14 Justin Thomas 15 Emiliano Grillo 16 Brooks Koepka 17 *Billy Horschel 18 *Zach Johnson 19 Charles Howell III 21 *Chez Reavie 22 Andrew Putnam 24 *Tiger Woods 24 *Jason Day After the TOUR packed up after its last visit in 2011, Aronimink Golf Club has endured multiple changes that should level the playing field this week. Gil Hanse was in charge of a $4 million restoration project that transformed Aronimink to its original routing, bunkering and green layouts from Ross’ original design. Over time, Aronimink, like most courses, couldn’t keep up with Mother Nature as fairways that couldn’t be irrigated were lost and green complexes shrank. On a course that began with only 12 trees in 1928, more grew and were planted over time and eventually the course changed. After finding aerial photography from the late 1920s, Hanse and his group had their blueprint for the restoration. To meet the challenges of the modern game, 18 new tee boxes were constructed to add some bite to the Par-70, 7,267-yard layout. With only 12 trees on the property in the original design, more were taken out to expand the fairways and greens. In the last five years the fairways have been widened and the greens expanded to best reflect the original intent. Over 100 bunkers were added and now bring 176 into play as they have been strategically added off the fairway and around the greens. With multiple angles of attack off the tee and into the greens, players will have to make strategic decisions instead of just taking a wallop. Decision making has always been one of the great separators between good and great players. Extra square footage on the putting surfaces adds extra pin placements that will make 2010-20111 maps redundant to some degree and add more thought making to the process. Bentgrass greens should be rolling “tournament speed” as always and if that’s the case, it was around 12 to 12.5 feet last week and I’d expect more of the same. The trees that were removed were replaced with either bunkers or fescue so there is a true penalty for missing these new, big targets. Inaccuracy should be decently punished this week and unlike TPC Boston, it might take a round or two to get used to how everything plays. It’s been seven years since the TOUR was here so I don’t believe course history matters this week. With attack angles and options in play, I’m leaning on the ball-strikers to have their way. Before the restoration not many hit double-digits under-par but that might change this week because of the class of this field. Dustin Johnson has joked before that if he can’t figure out a course after playing it once he needs to quit. I’d expect the big names to run to the front as they do on most all “new” courses as they tend to be the quickest learners. Bryson DeChambeau has the No. 1 seed locked up for East Lake already but there is plenty to play for again this week. Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari return this week and so should Pat Perez after WD to be at the birth of his first child on Labor Day. Take a look at the names below that are trying to hold their positions and those looking to kick in the door! The Bubble Only the top 30 advance to The TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in two weeks. QUICK FACTS: • No player has defended in ANY FedExCup event so all eyes are on Marc Leishman this week. • No player has defended their FedExCup title and only Snedeker and Spieth have qualified to attempt to do so. Thomas will add his name to this list. • Tiger Woods is the only player to win the FedExCup twice (2007, 2009). • Spieth is the only player to go MC-MC to open the FedExCup Playoffs and win the title. • Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson have the most FedExCup wins (4 each). • 2017 was the first year in six where someone has NOT won multiple FedExCup events. That streak ended Monday evening in Boston. • The only player to break their TOUR maiden in the FedExCup Playoffs was Camilo Villegas at the 2008 BMW Championship. • No player has ever won three events in a row or three times in the same FedExCup Playoff. DeChambeau can change that narrative this week. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention!  NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.  

Click here to read the full article…