Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Confidence Factor: CareerBuilder Challenge

Confidence Factor: CareerBuilder Challenge

Welcome Back! The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland as the West Coast swing resumes in the California desert at the CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta. This pro-am event has been around since 1960 and used four courses and five rounds to determine a champion until 2012. For the seventh year in a row the pros will only get four cracks at three different courses to find out who’s the best of the bunch this week. While each course has its own features, gamers will need to remember that only one, La Quinta Country Club, has been in use in 14 of the last 15 events. In 2016 Pete Dye’s Stadium Course and Jack Nicklaus’ Tournament Course were added to the rotation for the first time. When these tracks were added, course history from the previous two flew directly out the window. Speaking of rotation, the Stadium Course will host the final round for the third year in a row, meaning it will be the only course of the three to be used twice. Every pro and their amateur playing partner will play each course once with the top 70 and ties advancing to the weekend. If there are more than 78 players making the cut, only 60 will advance to the weekend. Jason Dufner was the first to take the title with the two new courses in play. His 25-under-par 268 was three shots lower than Hudson Swafford’s winning total from last year. Swafford will look to join “The Desert Fox” Johnny Miller as the only player to defend in the Coachella Valley. TALES OF THE TAPE Last year it was weird to see champion Hudson Swafford wearing a long-sleeve shirt under his polo as he held the trophy on Sunday. The final-round temperature only hit 61 and it was breezy so there’s no doubt that kept scoring quiet a day after Adam Hadwin posted 59 at La Quinta Country Club. Swafford took advantage of the greens he hit for the week by holing the important putts, those for birdie. His final round saw him circle three of the last four and become only the second player since 2012 to come from off the lead to win. His dominance of the par-5s is relevant because all three tracks play to par 72. ShotLink is only used on the host course but the stats above translate on all three tracks. The “regular” chart returns will return next week as well as a look back at the last THREE winners. Ch-ch-ch-changes! I do know that Swafford was the first, first-time winner since Jhonattan Vegas in 2011 and first since the reduction to four rounds in 2012. I’ll point out that Vegas is also the only rookie winner here and just the third international winner since the turn of the century. Jason Dufner needed two playoff holes to defeat David Lingmerth in the first edition with the two new courses in play. Both players carded 25-under-par 263 and both did it in two separate fashions. The champ opened 64-65-64 to carry a two-stroke lead into Sunday. The Swede made it a grandstand finish as he posted 62-65 (bogey free) to force extra holes. I’d point out that Adam Hadwin played in the second-to-last group in this edition for those of you paying attention. Dufner’s success was based on his strength, lighting up greens in regulation. This was his first top 10 in seven tries in the Coachella Valley but he entered the week on the back of consecutive top 10’s at The RSM Classic and Sony Open in Hawaii. When Dufner’s putter heats up, he can be a bother for the rest of the field. He circled a whopping 30 birdies winning in 2016. His putter has shown hints of warming as he circled 21 birdies last week at the Sony Open on the back of 18 at Kapalua. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the CareerBuilder Challenge. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the CareerBuilder Challenge since 2016. Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 2 *Luke List 5 *Phil Mickelson 7 Jon Rahm 7 Brandon Hagy 12 Seamus Power 12 Rory Sabbatini 12 Kevin Tway 18 Nick Taylor Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank Golfer 8 *Phil Mickelson 10 *Matt Every 11 Camilo Villegas 12 Grayson Murray 14 Sam Saunders 15 Jon Rahm 19 Scott Piercy 22 *Luke List 23 Brandt Snedeker 25 Tom Hoge Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer 1 Martin Flores 5 Ryan Armour 6 Lucas Glover 8 Cameron Percy 9 Robert Garrigus 12 J.J. Henry 14 *Luke List 15 Chad Campbell 18 Stewart Cink 21 Jon Rahm 23 *Hudson Swafford 24 Jim Herman Gamers playing the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO will want to revolve their rosters around avoiding the Stadium Course as much as possible this week. The last two years the Pete Dye design (par 72, 7,113) has played the most difficult of the trio. La Quinta (par 72, 7,060) is annually one of the easiest courses on TOUR and the last two years have seen it rate third easiest in 2016 and second easiest last year. The Nicklaus Tournament layout (par 72, 7,159) nipped La Quinta for the second easiest track in 2016 but rallied in the breeze last year to rank No. 39 of 50 in difficulty but still played 1.2 strokes under par. Having low scores in pro-ams is hardly earth-shattering information. The rounds are already long enough so heavy rough, slick greens and tough pin placements aren’t going to be on the menu. Toss in usually perfect weather and the recipe for going low is optimum. As is the case in shootouts, the players who find the most GIR will be the ones with the most chances for birdie. This week, with all three courses playing par 72 and all less than 7,200 yards, there won’t be many acceptable excuses for scores worse than par. Anything in the 70’s this week will need to be followed with something in the low 60’s. Bogeys will almost feel like doubles especially if the 54-hole cut hovers around 9 under par like it was in 2016. With a birdie-fest on the cards, there’s not much mystery on why there aren’t repeat champions. A shootout on short courses should involve just about everyone this week so it’s your job to narrow it down. I’ve provided some help below!    Weatherman Rob Bolton has suggested in his Power Rankings the weather this week won’t be perfect as temperatures are stuck in the 60s but the wind looks to be tame. Be sure to look for my post-round recap Emergency 9 each night shortly after the conclusion of play! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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Monday Finish: Thomas too good … againMonday Finish: Thomas too good … again

Welcome to the Monday Finish where everything old is new again as Justin Thomas continued his love affair with Asia, this time finding his way to the top of the leaderboard in Korea at THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES.  Here’s five observations and insights from the inaugural PGA TOUR event in Korea.  FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Reigning FedExCup champion Justin Thomas just moved to third on the new season points list. He also moved to third in the world rankings. But if we throw the current formula out the window and just tell it how it is… he’s the best player in the world right now. Thomas’ seventh PGA TOUR win, his third in Asia, caps off a dominant last few months. In the last 10 weeks, he won his first major at the PGA Championship; he claimed the Dell Technologies Championship; he won the FedExCup with his runner-up finish at the TOUR Championship; he was part of the dominant U.S. team at the Presidents Cup (3-1-1), he was rightfully voted PGA TOUR Player of the Year after a 5-win season; and now he’s kicked the new season off again with victory at THE CJ CUP. While Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth sit above him on the rankings, Thomas is the hot hand. It is going to be fascinating to watch him after he has his well-earned break and off-season to see if he can continue the roll and continue his rapid rise. He ended 2016 at 22nd in the world. He will probably end 2017 inside the top five. I don’t think many would be surprised if he ended 2018 at the top. 2. Some players are winners. Pure and simple. Justin Thomas is a winner. While he didn’t have his best stuff all week in Korea, he certainly stood up with the game on the line so to speak. After a penultimate hole bogey dropped him back into a tie for the lead, his approach shot on the par-5 72nd hole to set up a close-range eagle putt was epic stuff. The putt may not have dropped, but the swagger was palpable. While some players struggle in the moments, Thomas does not. He wasn’t thinking about making birdie to get in a playoff. He was thinking eagle and victory the whole time. Later in the playoff after Marc Leishman found water, Thomas didn’t think about playing safe for birdie. Once again, he pulled off another beauty from long range to secure his victory. Leishman also showed he’s not afraid to chase glory when it’s presented. While he may have found the water in the playoff, earlier he had also produced a brilliant approach on the final hole in regulation to set up an eagle try. His loose swing in sudden death came with his aggressive mindset. So while it will burn, it should at least make him happy to know he refused to take the soft option. He was playing to win. 3. Speaking of Leishman – the former PGA TOUR Rookie of The Year must be commended for the continuation of his career form. The year 2017 has been a banner one for the boy from Warrnambool in Australia, as he claimed victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard and the BMW Championship. He’s moved from 56th in the world to 12th and is now pushing towards being the best ranked player from Down Under, chasing his mate Jason Day who sits eighth after starting the year at No.1. While Leishman has always been loved in his home country, he hasn’t been feted at the levels Day and Adam Scott have. This is beginning to change. His goals for 2018 are lofty, and rightfully so. He has major championships and another assault on the FedExCup clearly in focus and you’d be mad to count him out of either. 4. I will be accused of bias and I’m sure there is some … but I expect this new season to be a big one for Cameron Smith. Living in the time of Spieth and Thomas and the like puts high expectations on young players, but this 24-year-old can handle it. With a T5 at the CIMB Classic and a third place finish this week, he’s moved himself to sixth at this early stage in the FedExCup race. A winner with Jonas Blixt at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last year, Smith now has his sights on an individual title. His shot into the penultimate hole in Korea was epic, given the wind and clear troubles others were having. While he’d like his birdie putt back, given it finished a few revolutions short of the hole, Smith can be proud of his fight that left him one shot shy of the playoff. As he becomes more and more comfortable with TOUR life, the Australian will prosper further. His schedule can seem limited to some, but this is because he likes to return to his native land to have a “normal life� with his mates and customs at times. Don’t be surprised if this kid upstages Jason Day and Jordan Spieth in the Australian Open in November. 5. It was great to see the golf on display in Jeju this week and I’m looking forward to more visits to Korea in the future. The locals provided great support for their PGA TOUR heroes and you couldn’t help but get behind Whee Kim as he tried to make a Sunday surge before ultimately being the top Korean in fourth place. Seeing the likes of K.J. Choi get to play a TOUR event in front of his home crowd was certainly uplifting, as was the strong support behind Seung-Yul Noh after he announced he will be heading into his two-year mandatory military service after the event. Our game truly is a global one and as an international traveler myself I get a real buzz from seeing the TOUR make its presence felt in Asia. I’ve made no secret of the fact I’d love to see places like Japan, Australia and South Africa join Malaysia, Korea and China in this part of the season to truly celebrate our global TOUR. FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Thomas held the first-round lead by three after a 63 on the first day. His win made him three for four in converting first-round leads to victory. For comparison, only eight of 46 first-round leaders went on to win last season (twice by Thomas, at the CIMB Classic and the Sony Open in Hawaii). 2. Thomas is 5-for-7 when it comes to converting 54-hole leads in his career. He has now converted five of his last six. 3. The previous week’s CIMB Classic winner, Pat Perez, shot the low round of the day on Sunday and the only bogey-free round of the weekend with a 4-under 68 to finish T5. It allowed him to take the FedExCup lead over Brendan Steele with Thomas now third. 4. Thomas’ win gets the 20-somethings on the board after their dominant 2016-17 season. Last season, we had 28 wins by 19 different players in their 20s but the opening two events this season saw the 30-somethings (Brendan Steele) and 40-somethings (Pat Perez) strike the early blows. 5. Just 24 players have played in all three opening events of this new PGA TOUR season with Keegan Bradley being the pick of that bunch in terms of points. He sits fifth in the FedExCup standings after starting the year CUT-2-T47. Nick Taylor has been the model of consistency from the same group, posting T9-T13-T23 to sit ninth in the FedExCup. TOP 3 VIDEOS

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