Confidence Factor: CareerBuilder Challenge

Welcome Back! The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland as the West Coast swing resumes in the California desert at the CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta. This pro-am event has been around since 1960 and used four courses and five rounds to determine a champion until 2012. For the seventh year in a row the pros will only get four cracks at three different courses to find out who’s the best of the bunch this week. While each course has its own features, gamers will need to remember that only one, La Quinta Country Club, has been in use in 14 of the last 15 events. In 2016 Pete Dye’s Stadium Course and Jack Nicklaus’ Tournament Course were added to the rotation for the first time. When these tracks were added, course history from the previous two flew directly out the window. Speaking of rotation, the Stadium Course will host the final round for the third year in a row, meaning it will be the only course of the three to be used twice. Every pro and their amateur playing partner will play each course once with the top 70 and ties advancing to the weekend. If there are more than 78 players making the cut, only 60 will advance to the weekend. Jason Dufner was the first to take the title with the two new courses in play. His 25-under-par 268 was three shots lower than Hudson Swafford’s winning total from last year. Swafford will look to join “The Desert Fox” Johnny Miller as the only player to defend in the Coachella Valley. TALES OF THE TAPE Last year it was weird to see champion Hudson Swafford wearing a long-sleeve shirt under his polo as he held the trophy on Sunday. The final-round temperature only hit 61 and it was breezy so there’s no doubt that kept scoring quiet a day after Adam Hadwin posted 59 at La Quinta Country Club. Swafford took advantage of the greens he hit for the week by holing the important putts, those for birdie. His final round saw him circle three of the last four and become only the second player since 2012 to come from off the lead to win. His dominance of the par-5s is relevant because all three tracks play to par 72. ShotLink is only used on the host course but the stats above translate on all three tracks. The “regular” chart returns will return next week as well as a look back at the last THREE winners. Ch-ch-ch-changes! I do know that Swafford was the first, first-time winner since Jhonattan Vegas in 2011 and first since the reduction to four rounds in 2012. I’ll point out that Vegas is also the only rookie winner here and just the third international winner since the turn of the century. Jason Dufner needed two playoff holes to defeat David Lingmerth in the first edition with the two new courses in play. Both players carded 25-under-par 263 and both did it in two separate fashions. The champ opened 64-65-64 to carry a two-stroke lead into Sunday. The Swede made it a grandstand finish as he posted 62-65 (bogey free) to force extra holes. I’d point out that Adam Hadwin played in the second-to-last group in this edition for those of you paying attention. Dufner’s success was based on his strength, lighting up greens in regulation. This was his first top 10 in seven tries in the Coachella Valley but he entered the week on the back of consecutive top 10’s at The RSM Classic and Sony Open in Hawaii. When Dufner’s putter heats up, he can be a bother for the rest of the field. He circled a whopping 30 birdies winning in 2016. His putter has shown hints of warming as he circled 21 birdies last week at the Sony Open on the back of 18 at Kapalua. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the CareerBuilder Challenge. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the CareerBuilder Challenge since 2016. Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 2 *Luke List 5 *Phil Mickelson 7 Jon Rahm 7 Brandon Hagy 12 Seamus Power 12 Rory Sabbatini 12 Kevin Tway 18 Nick Taylor Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank Golfer 8 *Phil Mickelson 10 *Matt Every 11 Camilo Villegas 12 Grayson Murray 14 Sam Saunders 15 Jon Rahm 19 Scott Piercy 22 *Luke List 23 Brandt Snedeker 25 Tom Hoge Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer 1 Martin Flores 5 Ryan Armour 6 Lucas Glover 8 Cameron Percy 9 Robert Garrigus 12 J.J. Henry 14 *Luke List 15 Chad Campbell 18 Stewart Cink 21 Jon Rahm 23 *Hudson Swafford 24 Jim Herman Gamers playing the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO will want to revolve their rosters around avoiding the Stadium Course as much as possible this week. The last two years the Pete Dye design (par 72, 7,113) has played the most difficult of the trio. La Quinta (par 72, 7,060) is annually one of the easiest courses on TOUR and the last two years have seen it rate third easiest in 2016 and second easiest last year. The Nicklaus Tournament layout (par 72, 7,159) nipped La Quinta for the second easiest track in 2016 but rallied in the breeze last year to rank No. 39 of 50 in difficulty but still played 1.2 strokes under par. Having low scores in pro-ams is hardly earth-shattering information. The rounds are already long enough so heavy rough, slick greens and tough pin placements aren’t going to be on the menu. Toss in usually perfect weather and the recipe for going low is optimum. As is the case in shootouts, the players who find the most GIR will be the ones with the most chances for birdie. This week, with all three courses playing par 72 and all less than 7,200 yards, there won’t be many acceptable excuses for scores worse than par. Anything in the 70’s this week will need to be followed with something in the low 60’s. Bogeys will almost feel like doubles especially if the 54-hole cut hovers around 9 under par like it was in 2016. With a birdie-fest on the cards, there’s not much mystery on why there aren’t repeat champions. A shootout on short courses should involve just about everyone this week so it’s your job to narrow it down. I’ve provided some help below!    Weatherman Rob Bolton has suggested in his Power Rankings the weather this week won’t be perfect as temperatures are stuck in the 60s but the wind looks to be tame. Be sure to look for my post-round recap Emergency 9 each night shortly after the conclusion of play! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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