Expert picks and analysis from the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges—who do PGA Tour caddies and our expert handicappers think will win?
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2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Cameron Smith (T5, -8, 11.6%) 2. J.J. Spaun (1, -11, 11.6%) 3. Troy Merritt (T2, -10, 9.6%) 4. Tony Finau (T5, -8, 7.9%) 5. Denny McCarthy (4, -9, 6.2%) 6. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T17, -6, 4.7%) 7. Sepp Straka (T2, -10, 4.3%) 8. Justin Thomas (T17, -6, 4.2%) 9. Brian Harman (T5, -8, 4.0%) 10. Will Zalatoris (T17, -6, 2.8%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Tyler Duncan +3.7 Around the Green: Seamus Power +2.9 Approach the Green: Joaquin Niemann +2.9 Off-the-tee: Hayden Buckley +2.0 Total: Will Zalatoris +6.4 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
The putt is one that Webb Simpson never practices enough. From just over 70 feet away off the green on the par-5 18th, Simpson rolled in the eagle putt for an 8-under 63 to take a one-shot lead Saturday at the halfway point of the Dell Technologies Championship. “You just kind of laugh at those because you’re not trying to make them, you’re just trying to get them close,” Simpson said.
Walk up music, great food, and sensational team golf… it is with a fair bit of sadness we bid farewell to the vibrant city of New Orleans, where a veteran Texan and a fiery young Spaniard combined brilliantly to reign supreme. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where Ryan Palmer rode the seemingly limitless talent of Jon Rahm and Rahm used the steady veteran Palmer’s nerve and experience to get the job done in an unlikely but beautiful pairing at the Zurich Classic. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. Ryan Palmer is one of those guys you can’t help but cheer for. Nine years. That is the gap between Ryan Palmer’s third PGA TOUR win and his fourth this past weekend. Through that time, he battled both on and off the course. His putter deserted him and while he wouldn’t use the word, he had the yips. Off the course, his wife Jennifer battled cancer. But Palmer found a way to stay positive and grind through. Jennifer is now cancer-free and Palmer is a winner again. His strength over the four days and ability to talk calmly and cleverly with the sometimes-impulsive Rahm was certainly impressive. But you don’t need to know Palmer to know he is a great guy… just look at who has agreed to team up with him in the three years the Zurich Classic has been a team-format event… Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm. Those young guns have their pick of a partner… and they’ve gone with Palmer. For Rahm, it has paid off big time. Read more about Palmer’s battles and journey back to the winners circle here. 2. Jon Rahm is brilliant… and going to get better. If you watch Rahm closely, you are going to let out an audible gasp within a few shots. A new memorable moment is always just around the corner. They are mostly awe-inspiring feats with his clubs, but sometimes it’s an aggressive decision you shake your head at. When he pulls it off, your head near shakes off your neck. Of course, sometimes his emotions have got the better of him… but that also just adds to the viewing experience. Who among us hasn’t had the game of golf twist our insides so hard we want to explode? But with his third PGA TOUR win in as many seasons, the 24-year-old continues to mature. Harnessing his emotional passion is always going to be a key for the Spanish star. That doesn’t mean bottling up his emotions, it means using them for the greater good at the right times. He admitted Sunday he was left out of Foursomes play in his Ryder Cup debut because of his sometimes-erratic game off the tee, but in New Orleans, with some help from Palmer and their caddies, Rahm played smart even when temptation presented itself. Seeing a positive result from a 7-iron layup off a tee just adds to experience bank of the youngster who Palmer says, “will be winning lots of tournaments (and) multiple majors.â€� Read more of Rahm’s maturity and contribution here. 3. Team golf is a brilliant concept The marriage of team golf and New Orleans continues to thrive. Now three years into the two-man team format, the Zurich Classic is certainly a welcome point of difference on the PGA TOUR schedule. So often we see these guys battling each other as individuals, but having them play under the gun with a partner brings out some fascinating golf. Even the partnerships alone are always great to read about. There are obvious ones with countrymen and college friends, and we also had a father and son duo… But how did a 42-year-old Texan end up with a 24-year-old Spaniard? Find out how the winners ended up together here. We celebrate individuals in our sport every week, so it is fun to celebrate a great partnership once in a while. 4. The International Presidents Cup team needs some players to stand up and lead on the course. It was a positive week off the course for International Team captain Ernie Els and several of his prospective team members, as they came together and bonded ahead of December’s Presidents Cup challenge against what will be a stacked U.S. side led by Tiger Woods. But on the course… well it certainly could have been better. Els managed to get several teams put together made of International hopefuls, with Australians Jason Day and Adam Scott leading the way. But theAussies, and most others, failed to make the cut. It was a sobering result. Of the 39 teams who made the cut, just five of those were made up of two international eligible players – the highest-finishing team was the Indian duo of Anirban Lahiri and Shubhankar Sharma at T22, some 10 shots off the pace. Through three rounds, the South African duo of Branden Grace and Justin Harding looked to be the shining light for Els as they sat in third place. But a final round 80 in alternate shot left some doubts on those two together at Royal Melbourne. Seven other individuals who are International team eligible made the weekend, with Kyoung-Hoon Lee finishing the highest at T3 as he played with American Matt Every. While David Hearn (T5), Curtis Luck (T5) and Nick Taylor (T9) were also on teams inside the top 10, none of those players were on the selection radar going into the week. If the Internationals have any hope of stopping American dominance in the competition, they need a strong leader to emerge. 5. Tommy Fleetwood is going to break through on the PGA TOUR very soon, perhaps in a major way. We all know Tommy Fleetwood is world class. He has won four times on the European Tour and contended in major championships. However, we are still waiting for his breakthrough win on the PGA TOUR. He and Sergio Garcia showed plenty of class on the way to their runner-up finish in New Orleans, which was Fleetwood’s fourth top-seven result this season. A quick look into his stats can solidify confidence in the Englishman, who surely will find a win at some point this season. He’s fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putting stats could be improved, but at 95th in Strokes Gained: Putting he’s not completely behind the eight ball. You can picture that big smile and flowing hair holding up a trophy very soon… FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Jon Rahm has now won in each of his first three seasons on the PGA TOUR. He jumped from 23rd to sixth in the FedExCup standings and also climbed into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. 2. Ryan Palmer has not made the TOUR Championship since 2014 but his shared victory with Rahm moves him to 19th in the FedExCup standings before he hits his beloved Texas swing in the upcoming weeks. 3. Palmer’s win was his fourth overall but first in nine years. A total of 3,388 days elapsed since Palmer’s last victory at the 2010 Sony Open in Hawaii. 4. The scoring average for Four-ball over the tournament was 65.685 whereas the average for Foursomes was 71.561. The best Four-ball round was a 12-under 60 from Brian Gay and Rory Sabbatini in round one. Palmer and Rahm’s 7-under 65 in round two was the high mark in alternate shot. 5. Former two-time Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by Mastercard champion Matt Every had his first top-10 (T3) since a T8 at last season’s Houston Open, more than a year ago. It’s his first top 5 since his second Bay Hill title in 2015. WYNDHAM REWARDS The Wyndham Rewards Top 10 is in its first season and adds another layer of excitement to the FedExCup Regular Season. The top 10 players at the end of the FedExCup Regular Season will earn bonus payouts from the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. Jon Rahm has smashed his way inside the rewards zone with his victory, coming in at sixth. His partner Ryan Palmer is up to 19th, very much within striking distance going forward. Justin Thomas is the man to drop out thanks to Rahm.
