Champion Khan’s complicated background

With the season’s final major championship right around the corner, only seven PGA TOUR events remain before the beginning of the lucrative FedExCup Playoffs. Several postseason stalwarts find themselves in precarious spots with less than two months to go in the Regular Season. As marquee names jockey for position down the stretch, Twenty First Group ran more than 10,000 simulations of how the rest of the PGA TOUR regular season would play out to project the likelihood of different points scenarios unfolding. The projection gives newly-minted major winner Jon Rahm the best chance at leading the FedExCup race entering THE NORTHERN TRUST (36.3%), with current FedExCup leader Patrick Cantlay right behind him (32.8%). RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup standings The math says that currently, 100 of 125 spots in the standings are projected to be taken. The most intrigue lies with the remaining 20 percent of the spots still up for grabs. Here are some of the more interesting probabilities the mathematical projections unearthed: Rickie Fowler Current FedExCup position: 114 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 73.3% Strong finishes at the PGA Championship (T8) and the Memorial Tournament (T11) moved Fowler from outside the playoff picture to firmly inside the top 125. Twenty First Group probability models now have Fowler at a better than 73 percent chance to reach the FedExCup Playoffs. Fowler’s marked recent improvement can’t just be tied to one particular statistic. Entering the PGA Championship, he was averaging +0.22 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round, and -0.39 Strokes Gained: Putting per round. In his last four starts, he’s gaining more than half-a-stroke per round in both statistics. Fowler has qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs every full season he’s been on TOUR (since 2010). Chesson Hadley Current FedExCup position: 116 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.8% Hadley’s season is a perfect example of how one week can change the narrative of an entire season. The lanky TOUR veteran has missed 13 cuts in 21 starts entering this week’s John Deere Classic, but a runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship in June has him in a great position to make the FedExCup Playoffs for the fifth time in his career. More than 42% of Hadley’s FedExCup points for the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR season came that week in South Carolina. With just a few events left, can he turn an up-and-down campaign into a spot in the Playoffs? Tommy Fleetwood Current FedExCup position: 125 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 71.1% The man currently in the final qualifying spot in the standings, Tommy Fleetwood, is not in that spot due to the nature of his global schedule. On the contrary, his 15 starts this season are his most entering the month of July in his PGA TOUR career. Currently, Twenty First Group has Fleetwood at about a 71% chance to reach the Playoffs. Fleetwood has just a single top-10 finish in a stroke play event this season, a far cry from the previous three PGA TOUR seasons, when he was tenth or better in 38% of his starts. Fleetwood has not been as proficient with his driver in 2021, ranking outside the top 150 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Still, The Open Championship – where Fleetwood finished runner-up in 2019 – presents a great opportunity to accrue the points needed to lock up a playoff spot. Dylan Frittelli Current FedExCup position: 130 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 43.8% Sitting just outside the top 125 is this week’s defending champion, Dylan Frittelli. In his 2019 John Deere Classic victory, Frittelli was lights out on and around the greens, leading the field in scrambling percentage and ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting. Those are two statistics Frittelli has struggled with in 2021, as he’s ranked 114th in scrambling percentage and 186th in putting. After seven missed cuts in his last nine starts, the friendly confines of Sylvis, Illinois, might be just what the South African needs to right the ship. Charles Howell III Current FedExCup position: 131 Probability of reaching Playoffs: 55.1% He is one of just nine players to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs every season since its inception in 2007, but Charles Howell III has some work to do in the coming weeks if he wants to make it 15-for-15. This week’s John Deere Classic would be a good place to start a resurgence – he finished tied for sixth here in 2019 and has eight top-25 finishes in twelve previous career starts. Howell’s approach play, in particular, has betrayed him a bit this season, as he is on pace for a career-low finish in Strokes Gained: Approach (currently ranks 194th on TOUR). TPC Deere Run could be a place that turns around, through: In his last 16 rounds played at the John Deere Classic, he’s gained a strong four-tenths of a stroke on approach shots per round.

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PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. - Rory McIlroy got to keep the coveted gold PLAYERS Championship trophy for two years thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic enforced cancellation at TPC Sawgrass a year ago, but the 2019 champion won't be getting it back in 2021. The two-time FedExCup winner was a dejected figure as he signed for a 7-over 79 in the opening round - his career worst round at THE PLAYERS. Previously McIlroy's hardest trip around TPC Sawgrass was a 77 in his first PLAYERS Championship in 2009 as a 20-year-old. To add insult to injury McIlroy was paired with fellow former champion Sergio Garcia as the Spaniard paced the morning wave with a 7-under 65 - besting his Ryder Cup teammate by 14 shots. Despite perfect conditions the damage was done on the opening nine holes as the group started on the 10th tee. McIlroy snapped his opening tee shot left into an unplayable lie, he ended up making double bogey, and things just got worse from there "(It's) very hard, especially when you’re trying to figure it out as you go along on course," McIlroy said when asked how hard it is to recover from a shocking start. "You’re trying to figure it out, but you still know you’re not really sure where the shots are coming from and then it’s hard to try to eliminate one side of the golf course, basically." After the double McIlroy soon turned a birdie chance into a bogey when he three-putted the 13th green from 24-feet. Another killer blow came on the iconic par-4 18th. The Northern Irishman pulled his tee shot into the lake without covering much land prior and then, after a drop barely in front of the tee box, hit his third shot into the water as well. When all was said and done he was walking off with a quadruple bogey eight. "I just hit a drive that started 10 yards left of where I was aiming and went on the wind and did the same thing with the 4-iron," McIlroy lamented afterwards. His 7-over 43 tied the highest start to a PGA TOUR event in his career, matching his efforts at the 2014 Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Back-to-back birdies to open the front side of the course after the turn brought hope of a fightback but they were followed with back-to-back bogeys. A final hole three-putt bogey summed up a tough day. McIlroy wasn't alone though as other former champions and big names seemingly kissed their chances goodbye right out of the gate.Henrik Stenson, the 2009 champion, shot 85 and 2015 conqueror Rickie Fowler had to settle for a 77 - three double bogeys negating any of the good work he managed. Pre-tournament high hope Tony Finau dropped four shots in his opening three holes and never recovered - his 78 a career worst round at TPC Sawgrass by three shots came after his last eight rounds on the course were par or better. Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, 2012 champion Matt Kuchar and Hideki Matsuyama were part of a group to shoot 4-over 76s. Matsuyama shot a phantom 63 in the opening round of the 2020 PLAYERS before the cancellation but was nowhere near as sharp 12 months later.

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