Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting By the numbers: Approach play indicative of Masters success

By the numbers: Approach play indicative of Masters success

For decades, players and fans alike have shared the colloquialisms common with Augusta National strategy. From the hilly terrain to the nuanced putting surfaces, “missing it in the right place,” and all points in-between. In recent years, the advent of Strokes Gained and its application in the major championships have provided a deeper understanding of what is required to win. That includes at Augusta National, where analytics have helped supplement the recent on-course stories played out by the world’s best. Its reputation as a ‘second shot’ golf course becomes even more fortified with a deep dive into the numbers. Little Penalty for Missing Fairway In order to best explain the significance of approach play at the Masters, the story begins with what players don’t have to worry about off the tee: rough. Annually, Augusta National yields the lowest penalty for missing fairways among major Tour venues around the world. Consider the rate at which players make birdie or better on certain holes across the last 10 Masters. On seven of 14 holes (par 4s and 5s), there is a difference of less than 10% in birdie-or-better rate depending on whether or not a player hits the fairway. For example, at the fifth hole, players who hit the fairway make birdie or better 8.7% of the time. Players who miss the fairway, 4.7%. Since 2010, players to finish in the top 10 at the Masters have averaged 9.6 fairways hit per round. Every other finisher at Augusta in that span has averaged almost the same total: 9.5. So while nobody wants to be stuck behind a pine tree, the numbers say that accuracy off the tee isn’t a significant advantage at the season’s first major. Approach Play Paramount In any given PGA TOUR season, a look at the Strokes Gained: Approach leaders often closely resembles the top of the Official World Golf Ranking. Six of the top-12 in this week’s OWGR are also ranked 12th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach per round this season on TOUR. That is to say, strong iron play is a prerequisite for great golf almost all the time. That is even more true at Augusta National, where five of the last seven champions have ranked top-five in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Approach. Jordan Spieth leads all players in that statistic since 2015, averaging 1.17 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. It’s no coincidence that he’s also the leader in cumulative score to par (45-under) and birdies-or-better (141) in that same stretch. Over the last eight PGA TOUR seasons, tournament winners have gained 35.4% of their strokes against the field with their approach play, the highest percentage of the four Strokes Gained disciplines (Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Putting being the others). At the Masters in that span, that number is a bit higher, 36.0%. While this doesn’t seem like an enormous gap, the margin at which the best iron players can separate themselves from the pack is clearly larger at Augusta than at the typical PGA TOUR venue. How about the more traditional metric of greens in regulation? Since 2012, nine of 10 Masters winners have ranked inside the top-seven that week in greens in regulation, averaging a stout 73.6%. The field average in that span is 61.3%. For the winners of every other PGA TOUR event in that span, the average GIR rate is 74.1% – not quite as high an advantage over the field (about 66%). There have been 10 Masters victories by three or more strokes since 1996. All 10 of those champions ranked sixth or better for the tournament in greens hit, with four of them leading the field outright. The Greens at Augusta National How does the significance of approach play compare to putting? Again, the margins are small, but they add up quickly when it comes to determining who wins the Green Jacket. For the last seven winners (as far back as the data goes), 33.6% of the strokes gained by tournament winners have come on the greens, a bit less than on approach (36.0%). In seven of those 28 rounds, winners have had negative Strokes Gained: Putting. That is only the case for five rounds when it comes to approach play. Five of the last six Masters winners have ranked outside the top-five that week in Strokes Gained: Putting; only two have done so in Strokes Gained: Approach. The four players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round at the Masters since 2015 are Rickie Fowler (+1.60), Russell Henley (+1.47), Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.85) and Justin Rose (+0.82). Tiger Woods’ 2019 Triumph Three years ago, Tiger Woods won his fifth Masters title thanks to a week of exquisite, vintage approach play. Woods hit more than 80% of his greens in regulation, most of any player in the field and the most by an April Masters champion since Tiger himself 18 years prior. He also led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining more than a full stroke in Rounds 1, 2 and 3, and a whopping 2.87 on Sunday. In all, more than 57% of Woods’ total strokes gained against the field for the week came from his approaches. Whoever authors their winning Masters story this week will likely follow a similar formula.

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Finding a better solutionFinding a better solution

Chris Kirk woke up in a fog that morning in his New Orleans hotel room. All the lights were on. He was still wearing the same clothes he had worn the previous day, rumpled now after a fitful night’s sleep. He asked himself a question. What did I just do? He already knew the answer. Kirk drank. That’s what he did. To excess. Again. But this was his wake-up call. Alone, hungover in the Big Easy, he knew he had to do something. So he went to his home in Athens, Georgia, and talked to his wife, Tahnee. Then he called his agent and a few other friends. “This may sound crazy,â€� he told them, “but I feel like if I am going to get better, this is what I have to do. I cannot play anymore. I have to be at home, and I have got to put all of my focus into this.â€� In telling the story, Kirk remembers the exact day: April 29, 2019. “That is a day that is definitely stuck in my mind and will be for a long time,â€� he says. It was the day Chris Kirk quit drinking. He’d previously tried twice to quit. Both times on his own. And he was able to stop drinking — but after six or eight weeks, the anxiety and depression that contributed to the problem became too much to bear. So he reached for another vodka or bourbon or glass of wine, and the cycle started again. Kirk would later learn that’s what recovering alcoholics and addicts call “white knuckling.â€� It wasn’t until he found a support group to help him address the underlying issues that led him back to drinking that he was able to successfully quit. On May 7, a week after he had his last drink and a day before his 34th birthday, Kirk shared his decision to take a leave of absence from the PGA TOUR in a brutally honest post on his Twitter account. He explained that he had been dealing with alcohol abuse and depression for quite a while. He told his followers that he thought he could control it but after several relapses, he knew that wasn’t the case. So, he was going to take as much time as he needed to get help. Kirk called it a “new and better chapter in my life.â€� And as the four-time TOUR champion prepares for his return to competition at next week’s Mayakoba Golf Classic, his feelings haven’t changed. He’s looking forward to the future – whatever it might hold. “I have my health. I have my family. We are happy,â€� Kirk says. Everybody has issues. Everybody has stuff that is bothering them that they need to work on. This just happens to be my thing. “It is just awesome to feel that way. To have gone from this overwhelming fear and anxiety of the future to now just pure excitement and embracing that I do not know what is going to happen because nobody knows what is going to happen. You spend all this time trying to control things and control what is going to happen next and the more that I have let go of that and the more that I have embraced that uncertainty, the happier I can be every day. “Like I said, I do not know what I am going to do tomorrow. I do not know what I am going to do the day after that, but it is all good. I know that I am going to come back and play some golf and if I enjoy it and I am successful at it, then great. If not, then that is all right too.â€� Kirk says there is a history of alcoholism in his family. Not his parents, but relatives on both sides. He also thinks that like so many other athletes, he’s a perfectionist and has an obsessive personality. It’s what drives them to put in the kind of hard work that takes them to the top of their respective games. Kirk was at that level in 2014 and ’15 when he won three times and climbed as high as No. 16 in the Official World Golf Ranking. He finished second in the FedExCup in 2014, as well. At the same time, he and Tahnee, whom he met at a friend’s blueberry farm on the way to the 2008 Sugar Bowl, were beginning to start a family. They now have three sons, aged 7, 5 and 2. As the boys got older and started school, life changed dramatically. Tahnee was at home, essentially a single mom. Kirk was spending more and more time alone, missing his wife and the kids and all those singular moments you can never get back. “I have gone from this perfect scenario that I had always dreamed of, to now close to 30 weeks a year on the road by myself,â€� Kirk says. “I was like ‘This was not part of the plan. This was not what I ever wanted.’ “I think my drinking was accelerated by that and maybe my fitness level and my mental capacity were probably brought down as my drinking went up. I still was playing reasonably well, but not to the level I was a few years before that.â€� That’s when the anxiety kicked in. And snowballed. What if he started playing badly? What if he couldn’t afford the house he’d built on their 40-acre retreat outside Athens? On the surface, that seemed like an irrational one, but the fears seemed real to him. What if?   Kirk says he never drank before or while he was playing but acknowledges there were more than a few times when he was in a fog when he teed off. Most of the time, he successfully walked a fine line, a delicate balancing act – making sure he didn’t drink so much that he couldn’t function the following day. “I’ve got to drink the right amount at night so that I feel normal the next day,â€� Kirk remembers. “Not too much so that I’m really hung over, but I can’t not have anything or I’m going to feel weird the next day.â€� Kirk quit drinking beer at the end of 2017 after he looked at the scales and saw that there were 195 pounds on his 6-foot-3 frame. It was by far the most he’d ever weighed. Instead, he started drinking wine, vodka and soda or a few fingers of bourbon, neat with no ice. “Switching from beer to hard liquor probably accelerated things for me a little bit as well,â€� he says. When he was on the road, Kirk often started his evenings by having a couple of drinks with friends at dinner. When he got back to his hotel room, he usually kept drinking. “Sometimes it would be one or two more,â€� Kirk says. “Sometimes it would be more than that. It just depended on my mood and … what I felt like I needed at that time.â€� By November of 2018, Kirk knew he needed some changes in his life. There were times he felt like he wasn’t in control, and it worried him. So, he stopped drinking for the first time. It wasn’t a success long-term. “Something I have learned more recently is that, most people, if they drink a decent amount and they have a legitimate reason to not drink, everything gets better,â€� Kirk says. “Their mental clarity gets better. Their health gets better. All these things get better. “But for an alcoholic, if you just stop drinking on your own and do not really do anything else and just fight it every day, then everything gets worse. That was definitely the case for me. My anxiety about my golf. My anxiety about money. My anxiety about my relationships. “Everything spikes after that. I was in a really bad place, a much worse place mentally than when I was drinking.â€� Several weeks later, he started drinking again. Tahnee says she probably realized Kirk had a drinking problem before he did. His parents were concerned, too. So was her family. “But it was easy for me to just block it out or make excuses for it and pretend like it wasn’t as bad as it was,â€� she says. “And there was a lot that I didn’t notice. I didn’t notice quite how much he was drinking. And then of course when he’s traveling alone, I really don’t notice it. “It was kind of easy for me to turn my head and pretend like it wasn’t happening, which is unfortunate.â€� The times when the couple did talk about how much he was drinking, Kirk remembers being defensive. He knew it was putting a strain on their relationship, but he had yet to admit to himself – much less to anyone else – that he was an alcoholic. “I was just fighting it and fighting it,â€� Kirk recalls. “Finally, after a couple of relapses, if that is what you want to call it, in April it was just like, ‘OK, I can’t do this anymore. I have got to change something because I am going to end up with nothing. …’ “It was when I realized I just really, truly do not have control over this, because I really wanted to not be doing it and I still was.â€� That’s when Kirk decided to take the leave of absence. He talked to a psychiatrist who prescribed medication to help with the anxiety and the cravings. He also worked regularly with Dr. Greg Cartin, a sports psychologist who for the last six months has served as Kirk’s therapist. They spent hour after hour going over Chris’ mental issues without any mention of golf. He called a friend and started going with him to a support group where he found out he wasn’t the only person struggling with addiction. As he spoke to others, he learned they had the same thoughts and issues he was facing. He was alone in that hotel room in New Orleans when reality hit, but he was not alone in dealing with it. “When you are in the moment, you just do not understand it,â€� Kirk says. “… That helped me make sense of it. I realized just how powerless I was.â€� Alcohol is not your problem. It is your solution. You just have to find a better solution. Tahnee remembers the conversation when he got back from New Orleans as being more of an announcement than a discussion. Regardless, she was glad he was getting the help and support he needed because trying to quit on his own was clearly not working. “I went through a lot of times where I thought, I don´t understand why you can´t just stop drinking,â€� Tahnee says.  “Well, that´s because I just wasn’t looking at it the right way … it took a lot of research and studying for me too, to understand more of what he was going through. “That’s not just something that can be turned off. … It’s been hard, but I think we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.â€� Kirk says Tahnee has been amazing – not just for standing with him as he came to grips with his addiction but also for keeping the entire family, her three boys, on track. “For me personally, the support from her staying by my side and that kind of feeling of unconditional love, just wants the best for me, wants the best for our family and that is huge,â€� Kirk says. “That goes a long way. I definitely have not made it easy on her lately.â€� Kirk has spent the summer getting used to his new normal back at a pastoral home where it’s not uncommon to see a handful of deer eating out in the pasture. Although he’s the first to tell you he’s not one to beat balls on the range, he does have a practice facility on the property. His two older boys, Sawyer and Foster, have room to ride on four-wheelers, play baseball or swim in the pool. “It’s not too tough to convince them to get off the iPad or quit watching TV, because there’s just so much to do outdoors here,â€� Kirk says. Kirk is the head coach for Sawyer’s baseball team and the assistant on Foster’s team, something he couldn’t do if he had been playing on TOUR all summer. He’s played golf with his buddies – for fun. He’s savored all the moments. A crew from PGA TOUR Entertainment stopped by one day to talk to Kirk about his recovery and the peaceful life he and Tahnee have created just south of where they went to college. After the film crew left, Sawyer – the oldest son – had a question. “Daddy, why are these people here today?â€� Kirk replied that they were “coming to check on me and see how I’m doing since I’ve been gone from the TOUR for a while.â€� As the words sunk in, Sawyer had another question. “Are you going back out to play?â€� Kirk said yes, and then he asked his son a question. “Are you excited for me to go back and play, or do you want me to stay at home?â€� Replied Sawyer: “Well, maybe you could just get enough money from coaching baseball.â€� Kirk said he appreciated the kind words but he isn’t making any money from coaching his baseball team. “Really?â€� Sawyer said. “They’re not paying you? You’re doing a good job, though.â€� Kirk is doing a good job staying sober and says each day has gotten easier than the last. He rarely thinks about alcohol, and when he does, it’s not in the sense of something he wants any more. Before, it seemed like the craving would never go away, calling it “something I was going to have to fight every 15 minutes for the rest of my life,â€� Kirk says. “That just seemed insurmountable.â€� Kirk’s 12-step program has given him peace and serenity. He understands now that his family, his health and his quality of life is more important than how many birdies or bogeys he makes. He’ll look for support groups in the cities where he plays, and he’s bought an RV to travel in to give him more of a sense of home. When Tahnee and the boys can’t be there, his teacher, Scott Hamilton, or his trainer will likely stay with him to help him feel more comfortable. He’s not worried about being in an environment where alcohol might be served, though. People talk about triggers, but it is not a real thing… I was drinking at restaurants. I was drinking at hotel rooms by myself. I was drinking at home. I was drinking on the road. There is no trigger. The trigger is me. “Now that I am taking care of myself by diligently working my 12-step program, reading and attending meetings, I can stay mentally fit. That will allow me to handle anything that comes my way.â€� Kirk was overwhelmed by the support he received after making his announcement on May 7. Not only have friends on TOUR like his Presidents Cup captain Jay Haas, Lucas Glover and Davis Love III,  reached out, total strangers have shared inspirational stories of their own. “Now I can see how common this is,â€� Kirk says. “I think that the shame of all of this has gone as well. That is why I am so comfortable talking about it. It is all right. I am not even upset that I am an alcoholic. It is fine. “It is just something different that I have to deal with, but everybody has stuff they have to deal with. Everybody has issues. Everybody has stuff that is bothering them that they need to work on. This just happens to be my thing. “It does not make me a bad person. Over the last few months it has made me a much better person that I have realized and have taken action to do something about it. Now it is my hope that someone out there will read this story and see that there is a way out.â€� Kirk didn’t touch a golf club for the first 3-1/2 months he was home. He’s now playing a couple of times a week and has ramped up the practice for his return next week. “Now, it is my goal whenever I go play to just really, truly play for fun,â€� Kirk says. “… There is no doubt in my mind that I love playing golf and I love competing. If that is going to be playing Friday morning at Athens Country Club and trying to take 20 bucks off of one of my friends, then that is fine. My goal is to bring that same attitude when I return to the PGA TOUR. “I am not willing to go back to making it feel like a job. I am not willing to go back to beating myself up when I do not play well. That is something that is a struggle for every PGA TOUR player because you are out there. Everything is right there for everyone to see. When you play well, people treat you differently than when you do not play well. You have the tendency to treat yourself a lot differently when you play well than when you do not play well.â€� Kirk says he really has no expectations when he tees it up at Mayakoba in his first start on TOUR since he missed the cut in the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He doesn’t know how he’ll feel about playing again, but he plans to embrace that uncertainty. “I guarantee you one thing,â€� Kirk says. “When I go out and play my first round, if I shoot 65 or 80 or anywhere in between, it is not going to matter to me. I am going to give it my best effort and I am going to really try to do as well as I can. “I am not willing to let it affect how I feel about myself anymore.â€�

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Ted Potter Jr Takes Down Big NamesTed Potter Jr Takes Down Big Names

Ted Potter Jr. held off the current world No. 1, a former world No. 1, a guy in hot form and a Hall of Famer on Sunday to claim his second PGA TOUR win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Welcome to the Monday Finish where a journeyman proved he has what it takes to beat the best, barely flinching in one of the sport’s most iconic regions. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1. You have to give massive credit where credit is due. With Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Jason Day amongst those around the top of the leaderboard on Sunday it was hard to find someone outside of Ted Potter Jr.’s family who thought he would be victorious at Pebble Beach. Yes, he was the co-leader after 54 holes and yes, he had a TOUR win under his belt from the 2012 Greenbrier Classic but the Floridian was still amongst exalted company. Mickelson and Johnson had tamed the iconic coastal course multiple times before. Day was coming off a win at his last start and is a perennial contender at Pebble. Between that three alone there are 70 PGA TOUR wins, six in this event. Yet it was Potter Jr. who looked every bit the champion. When he bogeyed the opening hole Sunday you could sense the experts nodding to themselves… there he goes out of the mix. Yet he responded with four birdies in his next six holes to take a firm grip of the tournament. The final birdie – a chip in on the beautiful short par-3 7th – came right after watching Johnson run the ball past the hole from a similar spot. From there he leant on his plethora of experience winning at all levels of the game – juniors, high school, mini tours, the Web.com Tour and the PGA TOUR – to play smart golf. Catch me if you can he said… and they couldn’t. He made par on the final 11 holes and won by three. What an effort – especially as it came a day after he sat on 59 watch with his 62 at Monterey Peninsula. It is always tough to back up a low round. Read more about Potter Jr. – and what he had to overcome between victories – here. 2. Dustin Johnson is human. But barely. By his own admission he “just didn’t have it” on Sunday but yet, without his best stuff, he finished T2. Johnson seems to now effortlessly be in the mix just about every time he plays. This PGA TOUR season for Johnson reads 2-1-2 with a top-10 result on the European Tour to go with it. While plenty of guys are hoping to come after Johnson’s spot as world’s best it appears it will take plenty to knock him off top spot. Next up is his title defense at the Genesis Open where from 2009 his results at Riviera read this way. 10-3-CUT-4-CUT-2-2-4-1. It is now at the point that if he’s not a contender on Sunday shock will be the main response. 3. It is a new Jason Day this season. After his winless 2016-17 season the former world No. 1 is back with a vengeance. He backed up his win at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T2 result this week – rocketing up to fourth in the FedExCup. His wild par on the last at Pebble included an attempt at driver off the deck and a wedge shot from down on the actual pebbles that give the beach its name. The significant thing about it was he was clearly playing to make eagle and put some heat on Potter Jr. despite the risk of dropping out of second place had he failed to make par. It is the winning mentality and killer instinct that went on hiatus for a while but is clearly back. Despite the incredible form of late, Day revealed he won’t play heavily over the next few months leading up to the Masters. He is slated to play just the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the World Golf Championships – Dell Match Play before Augusta meaning just four starts in 2018 leading into the first major. 4. Phil. Phil. Phil. Why must you tease us so? Mickelson went close to snapping his now near five-year victory drought at one of his happy hunting grounds – renewing the hope he can find win no. 43 at some point. His T2 finish now means he has four wins, two seconds, two thirds and two other top-10 efforts in the event. In 22 starts Mickelson has pulled in just under $6 million in prize money. Perhaps the most impressive part of his week was his Round 1 fightback at Spyglass Hill where he sat 2 over through 10 holes before five birdies turned his day, and week, around. Ultimately his effort in Round 3 at Pebble Beach, an even-par 72, was not enough to give him a serious shot at the title. But as always, he entertained us. Can he continue the magic this week at Riviera where he has two wins and two runner ups? Let’s hope so. 5. A couple of other key takeaways from the week included Chez Reavie finishing runner up for the second week in a row; Jordan Spieth finished T20 in his title defense (finding a little bit of putting form in the process but also having work to do); Rory McIlroy missed the cut in a surprise given his form in the Middle East; and Jimmy Walker (T8) had his first top-10 result since January 2017 – hopefully signaling a return from his Lyme Disease issues. FIVE INSIGHTS 1. Ted Potter Jr.’s 62 at Monterey Peninsula was his career low mark as he surged towards a second PGA TOUR win in 84 starts. The win lifted him to 15th in the FedExCup – also a career high. Potter made the FedExCup Playoffs in 2012 and 2013 but has never gone further than the second week. Potter made 24 birdies on the week, setting a personal best and also leading the field. 2. Potter Jr. had his approach game humming at Pebble Beach with his average proximity to the hole over two rounds at 26 feet, nine inches. It ranked him third in the field. 3. With the runner-up finish and a T5 at last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, Phil Mickelson recorded consecutive top-five finishes for the first time since 2013 (T2/FedEx St. Jude Classic, T2/U.S. Open). 4. For the week, Chez Reavie’s par-4 scoring average was 3.77, which was the best in the field. 
Reavie has now finished in the top 25 eight times in nine starts during the 2017-18 PGA TOUR season. 5. Jason Day is 24 under in his last seven rounds on TOUR. Not bad as his first nine rounds this season combined to just 8 under. Day significantly led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting with a +3.616 average per round over the rest. He gained more than a stroke a round on the greens on the next best player with Rob Oppenheim at +2.508. TOP VIDEOS

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