Brandt Snedeker follows 59 with 67, takes 2-shot lead at Wyndham Championship

OLD WESTBURY, N.Y. – Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler will begin the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs this week as the top five players in the standings. History tells us three of those players will not finish in the top five once the Playoffs end next month at the TOUR Championship. History also suggests it’s unlikely one of those five players – who have combined for 14 wins on the PGA TOUR this season — will emerge at the FedExCup champion. Since 2009, when the last drastic change was made to the FedExCup Playoffs points system, just three players who began the Playoffs inside the top five in points claimed the FedExCup – Tiger Woods, who started No. 1 in 2009; Jim Furyk, who started No. 3 in 2010; and Jordan Spieth, who started No. 1 in 2015. That’s a 37.5 percent success rate. (To be fair, Tiger Woods also won his first FedExCup in 2007 after starting the Playoffs at No. 1. But that was under previous points systems when points were reset at the start of the Playoffs instead of after the third Playoffs event.) On the flipside, there’s a 60 percent rate of turnover in the top five from the start of the Playoffs to the finish. Of the 40 top-five players in those last eight years, just 16 finished inside the top five. Consider that the delicate balance of regular season success versus Playoffs performance versus control-your-own-destiny finale. You play well enough in the regular season to start the Playoffs inside the top five. You play well enough to remain in the top five and enter the TOUR Championship with a guarantee to win the FedExCup with a tournament victory. But if you don’t win at East Lake, you open the door for somebody else to claim the PGA TOUR’s biggest prize. Matsuyama has completed the first leg, winning three events – including two World Golf Championships – to enter as No. 1. His consistency has been rewarded. But now comes the hard part starting this week at THE NORTHERN TRUST, which will be played for the first time at Glen Oaks Club. He’ll tee off Thursday with the biggest target on his back. “Of course I want to be in the top five going into the TOUR Championship,â€� Matsuyama said. “That’s my goal. But reaching my goals, the best way to do that is just to play well. So I won’t worry about where I stand in the FedExCup standings until after probably BMW and heading into THE TOUR Championship. “I found that if I play well, everything will take care of itself and I won’t have to check the standings too much.â€� But as we’ve found out, when you play well can be more important than simply playing well. In each of the last five years, a single player has won two Playoffs events, riding momentum against an ever-decreasing field size. Just three times did that player win the FedExCup. In 2012, Rory McIlroy won the middle two events of the Playoffs and entered East Lake as No. 1. But he finished tied for 10th, allowing Brandt Snedeker to win the TOUR Championship and the FedExCup. Snedeker had started the Playoffs ranked 19th but moved inside the top five thanks to a solo second and a solo sixth in the first two events. Two years ago, Jason Day also won two Playoffs events and was No. 1 going into East Lake. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth had not done much in those first three events, with a couple of missed cuts and a tie for 13th. But Spieth benefitted from a spectacular regular season, started the Playoffs with 1,710-point lead (as a comparison, Day had a 36-point lead over Dustin Johnson entering last year’s Playoffs; Matsuyama has a 180-point lead over Thomas). That generous cushion allowed Spieth to limit the damage from those so-so results prior to reaching the TOUR Championship. He only dropped to No. 2, then won at East Lake to claim the FedExCup. Day wasn’t the only one burned by Spieth’s win in the finale. Henrik Stenson, the 2013 FedExCup champ, had three runner-up finishes in his four Playoffs starts that season (and tied for 10th in the other). Had Spieth not found his game, Stenson might very well have joined Tiger as the only multiple FedExCup winners. “Because Jordan Spieth made 50-foot bombs when he shouldn’t have,â€� a smiling Stenson said when asked why Tiger’s the only two-time winner. “Next question.â€� Phil Mickelson won the TOUR Championship in 2009 but did not win the FedExCup. He remains the last player to claim that divided prize. Woods had won the previous event, the BMW Championship, and had a tie for second and a tie for 11th in the first two events. Meanwhile, Mickelson did not contend in that stretch, failing to finish inside the top 25 for those three events. Thus, Mickelson was 14th in points entering East Lake. His win wasn’t enough to offset Tiger’s solo second finish that led to his second FedExCup win. While consistent play throughout the Playoffs has its rewards – Stenson, Padraig Harrington in 2009, Dustin Johnson in 2012 and Adam Scott in 2016 are the only players in the last eight years to finish in the top 10 in every event in a single Playoffs – there’s nothing like winning to maintain or acquire that coveted top-five spot entering East Lake. Since 2009, every winner of one of the first three Playoffs events has arrived at the TOUR Championship inside the top-five in points – with one exception. It happened last year. Rory McIlroy won at TPC Boston to climb to fourth in the standings but dropped back to sixth after a T-42 finish at the BMW Championship. Of course, he then won a three-man playoff at East Lake to win the FedExCup. There are many paths to the FedExCup, and it’s why the top five starting this week will likely look different than the top five a month from now. “There’s not a right way and a wrong way,â€� Stenson said. “It’s all about getting enough points to be in the top five and hopefully win the last one.â€�

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This week’s Wyndham Championship is the final event for players to jockey for points in advance of the FedExCup Playoffs. It’s also the final opportunity to accrue Wyndham Rewards Top 10 points — the regular-season cash bonus — although no one is catching Brooks Koepka after his win at the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Just another $2 million into Brooks’ bank account — rough life. After two consecutive weeks of stacked fields at The Open Championship and the WGC-FedEx St, Jude Invitational, you’d expect a severe drop-off in the quality of the field in Greensboro, North Carolina. While there is a clear dip in talent, it’s not as pronounced as years’ past. Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, Paul Casey, Cam Smith, Matthew Wolff, Lucas Bjerregaard, Collin Morikawa, Alex Noren, Viktor Hovland, Doc Redman, Branden Grace, Joaquin Niemann, Chez Reavie, Dylan Fritelli, Charles Howell III, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Sungjae Im and defending champ Brandt Snedeker will be teeing off in North Carolina. There is a slew of players impacted by the FedExCup standings, but while you can project “needâ€� onto golfers in this situation when making your picks all you want, there’s no empirical evidence to support it makes a difference either way. It is a fun narrative, and maybe it works out; however, it’s all noise from a prognostication standpoint. For the course, Sedgefield CC is one of the few on the PGA TOUR that allows players of all skill sets to play their preferred game and have a chance to complete. A Donald Ross design (like Detroit Golf Club and East Lake), Sedgefield features eight par 4s measuring between 400 and 450 yards and a pair of par 5s reachable by the entire field (a cumulative 70 eagles on those two holes last year). Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green has been more than two times as impactful on the top-5 finishers (+1.1/per round) than Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+0.46/per round) and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (+0.37/per round), although, driving accuracy has popped as an essential skill in winning over the years. While the GIR rate is above TOUR average, the fairways narrow around the 275-yard mark off the tee, and this has resulted in six of the past eight Wyndham Championship winners finishing in the top 15 of accuracy for the week they claimed victory. Patrick Reed in 2013 and Brandt Snedeker last year are the two outliers. If you’re searching for a course that correlates with Sedgefield, Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage leaderboard have had a substantial amount of crossover the past decade. Targets From The Range Patrick Reed ($9,700) The lack of fairways gained off the tee is somewhat problematic, but as noted above, Reed was one of two winners (along with Snedeker) to finish outside the top 15 in Driving Accuracy in the last eight years. Reed’s an excellent player out of the rough, and has been red-hot over the past few months. He rolls into Greensboro with top-12 results in three of his past four starts, no worse than T32 in his past six starts and gaining an average of more than four strokes on approach in that span. He hasn’t won since the 2018 Masters, so we officially are in a drought. But at a familiar venue, which has seen multiple repeat champions, Reed is a perfect spot to collect another novelty check. Viktor Hovland ($9,500) First, Matthew Wolff got his breakthrough. Then Collin Morikawa followed it with a victory at the Barracuda Championship. Seems like Hovland won’t be too far behind. He fits the accuracy mold, ranking 10th in the field in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds per www.fantasynational.com, and it’s not like the rest of his game is lagging behind. He’s gained off the tee box and through approach in every start as a pro, and he hasn’t finished worse than T16 in any of his past three starts. If his putter finally will cooperate, he’ll at least notch the first top 10 of his career. Maybe more. Kyle Stanley ($7,700) After finding himself in majors and WGCs over the past two seasons, Stanley is back just attempting to churn out quality results and cash paychecks on TOUR. And most of the season, it’s been a poor effort. However, since the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, his ball-striking game has re-emerged. He’s strung together five straight cuts — with a pair of top-25 finishes — and is gaining off-the-tee and through approaches in every start. Per Fantasy National, Stanley is fourth in the field in fairways gained over the past 24 rounds, sixth in par 5s gained and eighth in approach. If he doesn’t putt himself out of contention, he’ll have a shot in a birdie-fest. Peter Malnati ($7,100) Making 13 of his past 14 cuts, Malnati has gained with his irons in six of past seven starts and has lost on the greens only once early February. While putting is a high-variance skill year-over-year, Malnati has been one of the few to sustain consistent roll over the years. Digging back into his course form, he has never missed the weekend at Sedgefield and was top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach a year ago, but a poor week off the tee capped his upside at a T24. However, this is the best he’s played entering the Wyndham in his career, sitting seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the past 24 rounds and ranks out 24th in Par 4s 400-450 yards, 27th T2G, and 25th in proximity gained from 150-175 yards, where the plurality of iron shots come from this week. Read more daily fantasy analysis from Pat Mayo and others on the DraftKings Playbook. Writer’s profile: I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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