Big name sleepers: Match Play perfect chance to finetune form for Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm

2019 3M Open, End of Round 1. Course scoring averages: Overall: -0.74 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.83 Afternoon wave: -0.64 Current cutline: 70 players at -2 or better (T49th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 2 under par: 25.8% 3 under par: 24.8% 1 under par: 18.3% Top 10 win probabilities: Hideki Matsuyama (T2, -7, 17.7%) Scott Piercy (1, -9, 16.5%) Brooks Koepka (T18, -4, 6.8%) Adam Hadwin (T2, -7, 6.5%) Bryson DeChambeau (T9, -5, 6.2%) Tony Finau (T9, -5, 4.2%) Sungjae Im (T4, -6, 4.1%) Jason Day (T49, -2, 2.1%) Lucas Glover (T18, -4, 1.9%) Brian Harman (T4, -6, 1.8%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the 3M Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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OAKVILLE, Ont. – Even though Dustin Johnson was paired with a Canadian in the third round of the RBC Canadian Open on Saturday, it seemed, at times, the crowd was more on his side. “I can thank Wayne for that. There’s a lot of Gretzky fans out there, and so they tend to pull for me, which, thanks Wayne, I appreciate that,â€� said Johnson after a 7-under-par 65 on Saturday. He moved him up the leaderboard at Glen Abbey into a tie for the lead with Kevin Tway, Whee Kim, and Byeong Hun An.  Johnson was of course referencing the father of his fiancé, Paulina Gretzky — the daughter of hockey’s greatest player. The 34-year-old started his day with five birdies in his first six holes. He made bogeys on Nos. 10 and 13 before going birdie-birdie-eagle on Nos. 14-16. “Definitely got off to a really nice start and made a couple good par saves in there, too,â€� he said. “I putted really well today. I felt like I was definitely rolling the putter nicely. Didn’t hit as many fairways as I would have liked to have. This golf course … you can shoot really low, which I did. I shot a good score today.â€� Despite the fact that all the par fives at Glen Abbey are reachable for Johnson – who leads the tournament in driving distance – he played them only 2-under par, despite having a wedge and a nine-iron into Nos. 16 and 18, respectively.  Johnson finished second in 2013 and again in 2016 at Glen Abbey, and tied for eighth last year. He said the golf course is one he likes playing. “I’ve played well here, and I’d definitely like to just give myself a chance to win coming down the last few holes,â€� he said. Nick Taylor, who played with Johnson Saturday, praised the world No. 1’s putting. Johnson needed only 26 putts in the third round. “He played great. He made a lot of putts,â€� Taylor said. “That was probably the biggest difference between us two. He drives it so well and takes advantage of that, but he made a lot of putts, which made his round really good.â€� Out of the golfers who make up the top-10 on the leaderboard, only Joel Dahmen has a lower final-round scoring average than Johnson in 2017-18. He admitted if he scores better on the back nine (he’s only 5-under on the final nine holes for the week, the worst out of anyone in the top-10) then he should be able to have a chance to win tomorrow. “Tomorrow I need to play the par fives a little better,â€� he said. “I haven’t really played them that well this week. Made a couple eagles, but haven’t played all four of them good.â€� Johnson has won twice already this season, and as he left the media center Saturday, he perked the ears of anyone who may have doubted that he wanted to notch his third win on Sunday. “Hope to see y’all tomorrow,â€� he said. OBSERVATIONS Whee Kim, Kevin Tway, and Byeong Hun An are tied for the lead with Johnson, and Tway and Kim are holding a piece of a 54-hole PGA TOUR lead for the first time in their careers. An shot a 6-under-par 66 Saturday, including a 33-foot birdie on the last hole of the day to join the group at 17-under. “The worst I would make from a lay-up was a par, so I just wanted to give myself a birdie putt,â€� said An, whose best finish of the season is a tie for second at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Tway, whose father Bob captured this tournament 15 years ago (in 2003 at Hamilton Golf and Country Club), birdied three of his final four holes to also get to 17-under. “I had a good finish, a little struggling starting out, but I know that the last few holes are a little bit easier, so I tried to stay patient and take advantage of the par fives,â€� Away said. Kim had it to 18-under after draining a 31-foot eagle on the par-5 16th, but bogeyed 17 and couldn’t convert his birdie try on No.18 to break out of the pack. Something’s got into Joel Dahmen over the last few weeks, but he can’t quite put his finger on what. “Golf’s really hard, so to pinpoint it, I don’t actually know,â€� Dahmen said. “It’s the same stuff I’ve been working on for three years but it’s just kind of clicking now more often.â€� Dahmen has had a solid year up to this point, having made 17-of-24 cuts. He’s had two top-10 finishes, both of which have come in the last three weeks. He’s on track for another one this week at the Canadian Open, after he shot a 5-under-par 67 Saturday to move to 12-under, and tied for seventh. He said he’s never had job security before and since he’s essentially secured his card for next season, that job security has totally freed him up in “every way, shape, and form.â€� He was looking at a hard shot on the par-5 18th and a month ago, Dahmen said, with a laugh, he would have been “peeing his pantsâ€� with nervousness. But he said he didn’t care much today if it went in the water or not, and he ended up hitting it to eight feet and converting the birdie. “I don’t want to say it doesn’t matter because there’s so much to play for, you want to get into the TOUR Championship and the FedExCup is important, you want to get top-70, but I don’t know. I’ve never been in this position. I’ve never had this much freedom,â€� he said. “It’s free-wheeling.â€� If Dahmen locks in his top-70 spot on the FedExCup come Sunday he’ll earn a spot into the PGA Championship, his first major. Graeme McDowell has missed the cut at the last three Canadian Opens at Glen Abbey Golf Club, but this year, with the course playing much softer, he’s been enjoying things much more. The three-time PGA TOUR winner fired a 5-under-par 67 Saturday to move into a tie for 18th, on track for his first top-20 finish since the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in November. 
McDowell sits 151st on the FedExCup standings, and acknowledged the need for a good week. “FedExCup points are key for me right now, but I’m happy to be here at Glen Abbey making birdies,â€� he said. “It hasn’t been a good stomping ground for me.â€� McDowell looked at his stats Friday night and said he realized he wasn’t been hitting enough fairways and his play around the green wasn’t where he had hoped. So he focused his warm-up on those key areas, and it paid off. “Funny enough I drove the ball great and my short game was lovely,â€� he said. “One of those days when I did the things better today that I haven’t done all week.” Mackenzie Hughes made a fan for life on the par-3 7th hole, dubbed ‘The Rink,’ on Saturday. He was walking along the area in front of the tee box wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey. He took it off and gave it to a child about halfway towards the green, and the child was spotted later in the round following Hughes. Hughes was giving him plenty to cheer about after a 5-under-par 67 on Saturday. He’ll head into Sunday as the Low Canadian, in a tie for 13th. “Unlike maybe yesterday where I was probably a bit impatient at times, I just told myself I was playing well and had some chances coming in and kind of got hot there,â€� Hughes said. SHOT OF THE DAY CALL OF THE DAY NOTABLES Abraham Ancer Ancer shot a 7-under-par 65 Saturday, matching his low round of the season. He moved into a tie for seventh. His 65 was also tied for the low round of the day. George Cunningham No. 3 on the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada money list, Cunningham is making his PGA TOUR debut this week. He shot a 3-under-par 69 and is tied for 21st. Hudson Swafford Swafford admitted Saturday the last 12 months have been a “bad year,â€� after battling injuries. He said, however, he enjoys playing Glen Abbey and it showed in the third round. He shot a 5-under-par 67 and is tied for fifth. Jamie Lovemark Lovemark was cruising Saturday before knocking his approach on the par-5 18th into the hospitality area behind the green. He made bogey but still shot a 6-under-par 66 to move to a tie for 21st. Charley Hoffman After losing in a playoff at the 2017 RBC Canadian Open, Hoffman is in contention again after a 6-under-par 66 on Saturday pushed him to a tie for 13th. Ryan Yip The Canadian is 55th on the Web.com Tour this year and with his card essentially locked up, he accepted a last-minute invite to the Canadian Open, his first. He shot a 6-under-par 66 Saturday and is tied for 21st. QUOTABLES I’m glad it stopped short of the water. I would have been pretty mad.I’ve never played in one before, so I’m just relishing the moment.  About two seconds.It’s been one of those nice up-and-down days, and then I grinded pretty well and I stayed patient.  It doesn’t matter where I play. It’s just play your game and see where you are. It’s really tough. Nobody knows who’s going to win. SUPERLATIVES Longest Drive: 393 yards by Zach Wright on the par-5 18th en route to a birdie. He shot 2-under-par 70. Longest Putt: 51 feet by Jason Kokrak on the par-4 8th, for birdie. Low Round: 7-under-par 65 by Dustin Johnson and Abraham Ancer Easiest Hole: The par-5 16th, for the third day in a row, was the easiest hole on the course at 4.167 strokes – nearly a whole shot under par. Hardest Hole: The par-4 5th played to 4.295 stokes, over par for the day.

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