We are less than three weeks away from the PGA TOUR’s official return at the Charles Schwab Challenge. More than 90 days will have passed between the cancellation of THE PLAYERS and the TOUR’s resumption of play. When THE PLAYERS was canceled back in March, a cloud of uncertainty was hanging over golf and the world around it. Nobody knew when we would see the world’s best tee it up again, but both players and fans were certainly hoping it would be safe to do so sooner than later. We now have a clear schedule for the remainder of the year, with competition resuming 13 weeks after the THE PLAYERS was canceled. Let’s explore what impact this break might have on player performance. Needless to say, 13-week breaks are not common among PGA TOUR players. Overall, only around 2.7% of starts are made by players coming off a 13-week break. A lot can happen in that time. Back in 2000, Tiger went on a run of five wins, including three majors, in a 13-week stretch. Below is a chart showing the percentage of players in a given event, by weeks off entering the tournament. Fifty-two percent of a field played the week prior. As we might expect, there’s a clear relationship between performance and the number of weeks a player has been off. We can analyze how well players perform by comparing our estimate of their ability (how we would expect them to perform) to how they actually performed. Generally, players taking small breaks of two weeks or less are marginally better than expected, while longer breaks result in an average drop in performance of between 0.1 and 0.2 strokes per round. For context, a drop of 0.2 strokes per round is about the gap between 100th- and 135th-ranked players in the world. It’s a significant change, but not enormous. Additionally, the drop in performance after a 10-20 week gap is quite consistent across different levels of players. Top-50 players in the world are affected by a similar amount to those outside the top 50. The below bar chart shows how players performed against their expected performance after layoffs of varying lengths. Given how uncommon breaks of this length are, we can’t draw too many conclusions on who we might expect to perform well in the early weeks back. However, there are a few players who over the past five years have had multiple 10+ week gaps and performed better than expected on their return. Ryan Moore (+0.9 strokes per round) and Phil Mickelson (+0.6) top that list. The below table shows the players who have performed the best after long layoffs. Intuitively we might think that after an extended period without playing on tour that touch on the greens might be a little off, and putting would be the area to suffer. In reality, it appears to be the opposite. Taking a player’s performance in their ‘return’ event compared with their season average that year, putting is actually the only area that remains quite consistent, with the other areas all dropping by a similar amount.
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KLM Open | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
John Catlin | +900 |
Ricardo Gouveia | +1000 |
Connor Syme | +1400 |
Daniel Brown | +1400 |
Maximilian Kieffer | +1600 |
Richie Ramsay | +2000 |
Joakim Lagergren | +2200 |
Francesco Laporta | +2500 |
Oliver Lindell | +2500 |
David Ravetto | +2800 |
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2nd Round 3-Balls - D. Van Driel / E. Chacarra / N. Von Dellingshausen | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Eugenio Chacarra | +140 |
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | +185 |
Darius Van Driel | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - L. Canter / F. Molinari / H. Li | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Haotong Li | +145 |
Laurie Canter | +160 |
Francesco Molinari | +230 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Campillo / M. Schneider / K. Nakajima | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Keita Nakajima | +150 |
Marcel Schneider | +175 |
Jorge Campillo | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Kinhult / J. Dean / R. Neergaard | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +110 |
Marcus Kinhult | +210 |
Joe Dean | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - W. Besseling / A. Del Rey / S. Bairstow | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Bairstow | +125 |
Alejandro Del Rey | +175 |
Wil Besseling | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Kisner / E. Cole / D. Lipsky | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Eric Cole | -125 |
David Lipsky | +250 |
Kevin Kisner | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - A. Baddeley / H. Higgs / M. Schmid | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matti Schmid | +100 |
Harry Higgs | +180 |
Aaron Baddeley | +320 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Hoffman / D. Willett / D. Walker | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Charley Hoffman | +175 |
Danny Walker | +175 |
Danny Willett | +175 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Champ / A. Noren / R. Hojgaard | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rasmus Hojgaard | +145 |
Alex Noren | +160 |
Cameron Champ | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Luiten / J. Parry / G. Miggliozzi | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Joost Luiten | +125 |
John Parry | +185 |
Guido Migliozzi | +225 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - L. Griffin / R. Palmer / T. Olesen | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Thorbjorn Olesen | -165 |
Lanto Griffin | +200 |
Ryan Palmer | +600 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - V. Whaley / W. Gordon / B. Kohles | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Vince Whaley | +130 |
Will Gordon | +185 |
Ben Kohles | +225 |
ShopRite LPGA Classic | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | +550 |
Jeeno Thitikul | +700 |
Jin Young Ko | +1100 |
Rio Takeda | +1200 |
Miyu Yamashita | +1400 |
Ayaka Furue | +1600 |
Chisato Iwai | +1600 |
Mao Saigo | +1600 |
Somi Lee | +2200 |
Jin Hee Im | +2500 |
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2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Dunlap / B. Snedeker / A. Schenk | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Brandt Snedeker | +150 |
Adam Schenk | +165 |
Nick Dunlap | +225 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - R. Fox / T. Kim / C. Young | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Young | +150 |
Ryan Fox | +150 |
Tom Kim | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - B. Garnett / J. Knapp / L. List | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jake Knapp | +115 |
Brice Garnett | +190 |
Luke List | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - W. Clark / J. Rose / A. Hadwin | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Wyndham Clark | +135 |
Justin Rose | +185 |
Adam Hadwin | +210 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Gotterup / E. Van Rooyen / M. Wallace | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Chris Gotterup | +175 |
Erik Van Rooyen | +175 |
Matt Wallace | +175 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - R. MacIntyre / S. Lowry / C. Conners | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Shane Lowry | +160 |
Robert MacIntyre | +170 |
Corey Conners | +200 |
1st Round 3-Balls - C. Iwai / P. Tavatanakit / A. Iwai | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Chisato Iwai | +125 |
Akie Iwai | +175 |
Patty Tanatanakit | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Vilips / M. McCarty / K. Yu | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matt McCarty | +150 |
Kevin Yu | +165 |
Karl Vilips | +225 |
1st Round 3-Balls - J. Thitikul / M. Sagstrom / L. Strom | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jeeno Thitikul | -160 |
Madelene Sagstrom | +275 |
Linnea Strom | +375 |
1st Round 3-Balls - H. Shibuno / A. Valenzuela / A. Corpuz | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Allisen Corpuz | +125 |
Hinako Shibuno | +175 |
Albane Valenzuela | +250 |
1st Round 3-Balls - J. Kupcho / J.H. Im / A. Buhai | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jin Hee Im | +150 |
Ashleigh Buhai | +170 |
Jennifer Kupcho | +210 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - F. Schott / L. Van der Vight / Z. Jin | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Freddy Schott | +155 |
Lars Van Der Vight | +155 |
Zihao Jin | +215 |
American Family Insurance Championship | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Alker/Langer | +550 |
Cejka/Kjeldsen | +750 |
Kelly/Leonard | +1000 |
Bjorn/Clarke | +1100 |
Cabrera/Gonzalez | +1100 |
Cink/Toms | +1400 |
Stricker/Tiziani | +1400 |
Allan/Chalmers | +1600 |
Green/Hensby | +1800 |
Wi/Yang | +1800 |
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2nd Round 3-Balls - B. Hossler / H. Norlander / R. Sloan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Henrik Norlander | +135 |
Beau Hossler | +165 |
Roger Sloan | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Lower / N. Hojgaard / D. Wu | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Justin Lower | +165 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | +165 |
Dylan Wu | +200 |
Virginia | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +450 |
Jon Rahm | +550 |
Joaquin Niemann | +700 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +1200 |
Patrick Reed | +1800 |
Carlos Ortiz | +2200 |
Lucas Herbert | +2200 |
Cameron Smith | +2500 |
David Puig | +2500 |
Sergio Garcia | +2500 |
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1st Round 3-Balls - D. Burmester / B. Grace / C. Schwartzel | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Dean Burmester | +120 |
Charl Schwartzel | +170 |
Branden Grace | +275 |
1st Round 3-Balls - S. Garcia / L. Oosthuizen / M. Kaymer | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Sergio Garcia | +105 |
Louis Oosthuizen | +145 |
Martin Kaymer | +400 |
1st Round 3-Balls - T. Hatton / T. McKibbin / C. Surratt | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Tyrrell Hatton | +105 |
Tom McKibbin | +200 |
Caleb Surratt | +260 |
1st Round 3-Balls - L. Herbert / M. Leishman / M. Jones | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Lucas Herbert | +100 |
Marc Leishman | +170 |
Matt Jones | +350 |
1st Round 3-Balls - B. Koepka / D. Johnson / C. Smith | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Smith | +150 |
Brooks Koepka | +175 |
Dustin Johnson | +200 |
1st Round 3-Balls - B. DeChambeau / J. Rahm / J. Niemann | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +150 |
Jon Rahm | +170 |
Joaquin Niemann | +210 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group A - B. DeChambeau / T. Hatton / J. Rahm / P. Reed / J. Niemann / C. Ortiz | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +280 |
Jon Rahm | +320 |
Joaquin Niemann | +375 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +500 |
Patrick Reed | +600 |
Carlos Ortiz | +700 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group B - C. Smith / S. Garcia / L. Herbert / D. Burmester / S. Munoz / B. Koepka | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Cameron Smith | +375 |
Lucas Herbert | +375 |
Sebastian Munoz | +425 |
Brooks Koepka | +450 |
Dean Burmester | +450 |
Sergio Garcia | +450 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group C - T. Gooch / P. Casey / C. Tringale / M. Leishman / D. Johnson / R. Bland | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Talor Gooch | +350 |
Cameron Tringale | +400 |
Dustin Johnson | +400 |
Marc Leishman | +450 |
Paul Casey | +450 |
Richard Bland | +475 |
1st Round Six-Shooter - Group D - T. McKibbin / B. Watson / C. Schwartzel / L. Oosthuizen / T. Pieters / H. Varner | |
Type: 1st Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN | |
Tom McKibbin | +400 |
Bubba Watson | +425 |
Charl Schwartzel | +425 |
Thomas Pieters | +425 |
Harold Varner III | +450 |
Louis Oosthuizen | +450 |
Bryson DeChambeau | |
Type: Bryson DeChambeau - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | -135 |
Top 10 Finish | -350 |
Top 20 Finish | -1200 |
Jon Rahm | |
Type: Jon Rahm - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | -115 |
Top 10 Finish | -300 |
Top 20 Finish | -1200 |
Joaquin Niemann | |
Type: Joaquin Niemann - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +100 |
Top 10 Finish | -250 |
Top 20 Finish | -900 |
Tyrrell Hatton | |
Type: Tyrrell Hatton - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +180 |
Top 10 Finish | -150 |
Top 20 Finish | -600 |
Patrick Reed | |
Type: Patrick Reed - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +290 |
Top 10 Finish | +105 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Ramey / A. Putnam / R. Hoey | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rico Hoey | +125 |
Andrew Putnam | +175 |
Chad Ramey | +250 |
Carlos Ortiz | |
Type: Carlos Ortiz - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +310 |
Top 10 Finish | +115 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
Lucas Herbert | |
Type: Lucas Herbert - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +310 |
Top 10 Finish | +115 |
Top 20 Finish | -400 |
Cameron Smith | |
Type: Cameron Smith - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
David Puig | |
Type: David Puig - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
Sergio Garcia | |
Type: Sergio Garcia - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +350 |
Top 10 Finish | +125 |
Top 20 Finish | -350 |
Brooks Koepka | |
Type: Brooks Koepka - Status: OPEN | |
Top 5 Finish | +400 |
Top 10 Finish | +140 |
Top 20 Finish | -300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Weir / C. Kim / B. Silverman | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Ben Silverman | +125 |
Chan Kim | +130 |
Mike Weir | +375 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - D. Ghim / H. Buckley / M. Meissner | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Doug Ghim | +140 |
Mac Meissner | +175 |
Hayden Buckley | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - S. Burns / M. Homa / S. Im | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Sam Burns | +125 |
Sungjae Im | +200 |
Max Homa | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - D. Riley / L. Hodges / G. Woodland | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Davis Riley | +150 |
Lee Hodges | +175 |
Gary Woodland | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Taylor / T. Pendrith / M. Hughes | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Taylor Pendrith | +130 |
Nick Taylor | +180 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +230 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Pavon / A. Svensson / A. Wise | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthieu Pavon | +125 |
Adam Svensson | +135 |
Aaron Wise | +350 |
1st Round 3-Balls - L. Coughlin / J.Y. Ko / R. Takeda | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jin Young Ko | +135 |
Rio Takeda | +160 |
Lauren Coughlin | +240 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - R. McIIroy / L. Aberg / L. Clanton | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +125 |
Ludvig Aberg | +165 |
Luke Clanton | +275 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Detry / K. Mitchell / B. Hun An | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Keith Mitchell | +145 |
Thomas Detry | +170 |
Byeong Hun An | +225 |
1st Round 3-Balls - N. Korda / M. Stark / M. Saigo | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | -110 |
Mao Saigo | +200 |
Maja Stark | +320 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - H. Hall / T. Moore / K. Kitayama | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Harry Hall | +145 |
Kurt Kitayama | +180 |
Taylor Moore | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Villegas / E. Grillo / N. Hardy | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Emiliano Grillo | +105 |
Nick Hardy | +180 |
Camilo Villegas | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Lashley / A. Smalley / V. Perez | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | +120 |
Victor Perez | +165 |
Nate Lashley | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Dahmen / P. Rodgers / C. Young | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Patrick Rodgers | +135 |
Carson Young | +180 |
Joel Dahmen | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Onishi / M. Creighton / M. Anderson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthew Anderson | +140 |
Myles Creighton | +185 |
Kaito Onishi | +210 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Rosenmueller / M. Andersen / J. Goldenberg | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Thomas Rosenmueller | +115 |
Matthew Anderson | +160 |
Josh Goldenberg | +320 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Velo / B. Thornberry / W. Heffernan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Kevin Velo | +110 |
Braden Thornberry | +145 |
Wes Heffernan | +375 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - P. Peterson / P. Knowles / H. Thomson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Hunter Thomson | +135 |
Paul Peterson | +140 |
Philip Knowles | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Norgaard / G. Sargent / J. Keefer | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Johnny Keefer | +110 |
Niklas Norgaard | +120 |
Gordon Sargent | +550 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - A. Rozner / V. Covello / W. Wang | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | -230 |
Vince Covello | +400 |
Wei-Hsuan Wang | +425 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Kanaya / T. Cone / A.J. Ewart | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Takumi Kanaya | -110 |
A J Ewart | +250 |
Trevor Cone | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Goodwin / Y. Cao / B. Botha | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Noah Goodwin | +110 |
Barend Botha | +200 |
Yi Cao | +250 |
Major Specials 2025 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +500 |
Jon Rahm | +750 |
Collin Morikawa | +900 |
Xander Schauffele | +900 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1000 |
Justin Thomas | +1100 |
Joaquin Niemann | +1400 |
Shane Lowry | +1600 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +1800 |
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US Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +275 |
Rory McIlroy | +650 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +700 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
Justin Thomas | +3000 |
Brooks Koepka | +4000 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 |
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The Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Jon Rahm | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | +2500 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
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Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
USA | -150 |
Europe | +140 |
Tie | +1200 |