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Big break: How long layoffs impact players

We are less than three weeks away from the PGA TOUR’s official return at the Charles Schwab Challenge. More than 90 days will have passed between the cancellation of THE PLAYERS and the TOUR’s resumption of play. When THE PLAYERS was canceled back in March, a cloud of uncertainty was hanging over golf and the world around it. Nobody knew when we would see the world’s best tee it up again, but both players and fans were certainly hoping it would be safe to do so sooner than later. We now have a clear schedule for the remainder of the year, with competition resuming 13 weeks after the THE PLAYERS was canceled. Let’s explore what impact this break might have on player performance. Needless to say, 13-week breaks are not common among PGA TOUR players. Overall, only around 2.7% of starts are made by players coming off a 13-week break. A lot can happen in that time. Back in 2000, Tiger went on a run of five wins, including three majors, in a 13-week stretch. Below is a chart showing the percentage of players in a given event, by weeks off entering the tournament. Fifty-two percent of a field played the week prior. As we might expect, there’s a clear relationship between performance and the number of weeks a player has been off. We can analyze how well players perform by comparing our estimate of their ability (how we would expect them to perform) to how they actually performed. Generally, players taking small breaks of two weeks or less are marginally better than expected, while longer breaks result in an average drop in performance of between 0.1 and 0.2 strokes per round. For context, a drop of 0.2 strokes per round is about the gap between 100th- and 135th-ranked players in the world. It’s a significant change, but not enormous. Additionally, the drop in performance after a 10-20 week gap is quite consistent across different levels of players. Top-50 players in the world are affected by a similar amount to those outside the top 50. The below bar chart shows how players performed against their expected performance after layoffs of varying lengths. Given how uncommon breaks of this length are, we can’t draw too many conclusions on who we might expect to perform well in the early weeks back. However, there are a few players who over the past five years have had multiple 10+ week gaps and performed better than expected on their return. Ryan Moore (+0.9 strokes per round) and Phil Mickelson (+0.6) top that list. The below table shows the players who have performed the best after long layoffs. Intuitively we might think that after an extended period without playing on tour that touch on the greens might be a little off, and putting would be the area to suffer. In reality, it appears to be the opposite. Taking a player’s performance in their ‘return’ event compared with their season average that year, putting is actually the only area that remains quite consistent, with the other areas all dropping by a similar amount.

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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
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PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+800
Justin Thomas+1800
Jon Rahm+2000
Xander Schauffele+2200
Collin Morikawa+2500
Ludvig Aberg+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3500
Patrick Cantlay+4000
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Tournament Match-Ups - P. Cantlay vs T. Hatton
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Patrick Cantlay-135
Tyrrell Hatton+105
Tournament Match-Ups - C. Conners vs R. Henley
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Corey Conners-125
Russell Henley-105
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Day vs P. Reed
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Patrick Reed-125
Jason Day-105
Tournament Match-Ups - B. DeChambeau vs J. Thomas
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Bryson DeChambeau-175
Justin Thomas+135
Tournament Match-Ups - T. Fleetwood vs V. Hovland
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Tommy Fleetwood-125
Viktor Hovland-105
Tournament Match-Ups - D. Berger vs S. Im
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Daniel Berger-120
Sungjae Im-110
Tournament Match-Ups - B. Koepka vs J. Spieth
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Jordan Spieth-130
Brooks Koepka+100
Tournament Match-Ups - M.W. Lee vs W. Clark
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Min Woo Lee-130
Wyndham Clark+100
Tournament Match-Ups - S. Lowry vs S. Straka
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Shane Lowry-130
Sepp Straka+100
Tournament Match-Ups - A. Bhatia vs M. McNealy
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Maverick McNealy-130
Akshay Bhatia+100
Tournament Match-Ups - C. Morikawa vs L. Aberg
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Collin Morikawa-150
Ludvig Aberg+115
Tournament Match-Ups - H. Matsuyama vs J. Niemann
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Joaquin Niemann-130
Hideki Matsuyama+100
Tournament Match-Ups - J. Rahm vs X. Schauffele
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm-130
Xander Schauffele+100
Tournament Match-Ups - R. McIlroy vs S. Scheffler
Type: Tournament Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy-115
Scottie Scheffler-115
Rory McIlroy - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Rory McIlroy - Status: OPEN
Make-1600
Miss+750
Scottie Scheffler - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Scottie Scheffler - Status: OPEN
Make-1600
Miss+750
Bryson DeChambeau - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Bryson DeChambeau - Status: OPEN
Make-1000
Miss+550
Justin Thomas - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Justin Thomas - Status: OPEN
Make-600
Miss+375
Collin Morikawa - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Collin Morikawa - Status: OPEN
Make-500
Miss+325
Jon Rahm - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Jon Rahm - Status: OPEN
Make-600
Miss+375
Xander Schauffele - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Xander Schauffele - Status: OPEN
Make-600
Miss+375
Ludvig Aberg - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Ludvig Aberg - Status: OPEN
Make -450
Miss+300
Joaquin Niemann - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Joaquin Niemann - Status: OPEN
Make-350
Miss+250
Brooks Koepka - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Brooks Koepka - Status: OPEN
Make-275
Miss+200
Tommy Fleetwood - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Tommy Fleetwood - Status: OPEN
Make-400
Miss+275
Hideki Matsuyama - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Hideki Matsuyama - Status: OPEN
Make-350
Miss+250
Patrick Cantlay - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Patrick Cantlay - Status: OPEN
Make-350
Miss+250
Tyrrell Hatton - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Tyrrell Hatton - Status: OPEN
Make -350
Miss+250
Shane Lowry - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Shane Lowry - Status: OPEN
Make-350
Miss+250
Corey Conners - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Corey Conners - Status: OPEN
Make-300
Miss+220
Patrick Reed - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Patrick Reed - Status: OPEN
Make-275
Miss+200
Viktor Hovland - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Viktor Hovland - Status: OPEN
Make-300
Miss+220
Jordan Spieth - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Jordan Spieth - Status: OPEN
Make-250
Miss+180
Russell Henley - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Russell Henley - Status: OPEN
Make-250
Miss+180
Sepp Straka - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Sepp Straka - Status: OPEN
Make-275
Miss+200
Daniel Berger - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Daniel Berger - Status: OPEN
Make-275
Miss+200
Min Woo Lee - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Min Woo Lee - Status: OPEN
Make-225
Miss+165
Keegan Bradley - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Keegan Bradley - Status: OPEN
Make-225
Miss+165
Tony Finau - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Tony Finau - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Rory McIlroy
Type: Rory McIlroy - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-105
Top 10 Finish-200
Top 20 Finish-450
Top 30 Finish-650
Top 40 Finish-900
Keith Mitchell - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Keith Mitchell - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Scottie Scheffler
Type: Scottie Scheffler - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+100
Top 10 Finish-190
Top 20 Finish-425
Top 30 Finish-600
Top 40 Finish-850
Sungjae Im - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Sungjae Im - Status: OPEN
Make-225
Miss+165
Bryson DeChambeau
Type: Bryson DeChambeau - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+175
Top 10 Finish-120
Top 20 Finish-275
Top 30 Finish-375
Top 40 Finish-550
Robert MacIntyre - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Robert MacIntyre - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Justin Thomas
Type: Justin Thomas - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+300
Top 10 Finish+140
Top 20 Finish-170
Top 30 Finish-210
Top 40 Finish-320
Davis Thompson - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Davis Thompson - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Collin Morikawa
Type: Collin Morikawa - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+375
Top 10 Finish+170
Top 20 Finish-140
Top 30 Finish-175
Top 40 Finish-250
J J Spaun - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: J J Spaun - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Jon Rahm
Type: Jon Rahm - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+375
Top 10 Finish+170
Top 20 Finish-140
Top 30 Finish-190
Top 40 Finish-280
Sam Burns - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Sam Burns - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Xander Schauffele
Type: Xander Schauffele - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+375
Top 10 Finish+170
Top 20 Finish-140
Top 30 Finish-190
Top 40 Finish-280
Maverick McNealy - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Maverick McNealy - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Ludvig Aberg
Type: Ludvig Aberg - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+400
Top 10 Finish+190
Top 20 Finish-130
Top 30 Finish-175
Top 40 Finish-250
Harris English - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Harris English - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Joaquin Niemann
Type: Joaquin Niemann - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+500
Top 10 Finish+225
Top 20 Finish+100
Top 30 Finish-130
Top 40 Finish-200
Denny McCarthy - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Denny McCarthy - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Brooks Koepka
Type: Brooks Koepka - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+650
Top 10 Finish+280
Top 20 Finish+120
Top 30 Finish+100
Top 40 Finish-150
Si Woo Kim - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Si Woo Kim - Status: OPEN
Make-200
Miss+150
Hideki Matsuyama
Type: Hideki Matsuyama - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+650
Top 10 Finish+280
Top 20 Finish+120
Top 30 Finish-120
Top 40 Finish-175
Akshay Bhatia - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Akshay Bhatia - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Patrick Cantlay
Type: Patrick Cantlay - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+650
Top 10 Finish+280
Top 20 Finish+120
Top 30 Finish-120
Top 40 Finish-180
Byeong Hun An - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Byeong Hun An - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Tommy Fleetwood
Type: Tommy Fleetwood - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+650
Top 10 Finish+280
Top 20 Finish+115
Top 30 Finish-120
Top 40 Finish-180
Mackenzie Hughes - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Mackenzie Hughes - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Jordan Spieth
Type: Jordan Spieth - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+700
Top 10 Finish+325
Top 20 Finish+125
Top 30 Finish+100
Top 40 Finish-150
Will Zalatoris - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Will Zalatoris - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Tyrrell Hatton
Type: Tyrrell Hatton - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+700
Top 10 Finish+300
Top 20 Finish+125
Top 30 Finish-110
Top 40 Finish-165
Wyndham Clark - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Wyndham Clark - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Sepp Straka
Type: Sepp Straka - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+800
Top 10 Finish+350
Top 20 Finish+140
Top 30 Finish+100
Top 40 Finish-140
Justin Rose - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Justin Rose - Status: OPEN
Make-175
Miss+135
Shane Lowry
Type: Shane Lowry - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+800
Top 10 Finish+350
Top 20 Finish+140
Top 30 Finish-110
Top 40 Finish-165
Brian Harman - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Brian Harman - Status: OPEN
Make-175
Miss+135
Viktor Hovland
Type: Viktor Hovland - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+800
Top 10 Finish+350
Top 20 Finish+140
Top 30 Finish-110
Top 40 Finish-165
J.T. Poston - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: J.T. Poston - Status: OPEN
Make-175
Miss+135
Corey Conners
Type: Corey Conners - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1000
Top 10 Finish+425
Top 20 Finish+170
Top 30 Finish+115
Top 40 Finish-130
Adam Scott - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Adam Scott - Status: OPEN
Make-185
Miss+140
Patrick Reed
Type: Patrick Reed - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1200
Top 10 Finish+500
Top 20 Finish+190
Top 30 Finish+130
Top 40 Finish-115
Sergio Garcia - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Sergio Garcia - Status: OPEN
Make-165
Miss+125
Russell Henley
Type: Russell Henley - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1200
Top 10 Finish+500
Top 20 Finish+190
Top 30 Finish+130
Top 40 Finish-120
Rasmus Hojgaard - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Rasmus Hojgaard - Status: OPEN
Make-165
Miss+125
Daniel Berger
Type: Daniel Berger - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1200
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+210
Top 30 Finish+130
Top 40 Finish-115
Thomas Detry - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Thomas Detry - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Jason Day
Type: Jason Day - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1200
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+210
Top 30 Finish+130
Top 40 Finish-110
Ryan Fox - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Ryan Fox - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Sungjae Im
Type: Sungjae Im - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1200
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+210
Top 30 Finish+135
Top 40 Finish-110
Cameron Young - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Cameron Young - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Akshay Bhatia
Type: Akshay Bhatia - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1600
Top 10 Finish+650
Top 20 Finish+250
Top 30 Finish+175
Top 40 Finish+115
Aaron Rai - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Aaron Rai - Status: OPEN
Make-175
Miss+135
Justin Rose
Type: Justin Rose - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1400
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+230
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+110
Dustin Johnson - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Dustin Johnson - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Keith Mitchell
Type: Keith Mitchell - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+160
Top 40 Finish+110
Rickie Fowler - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Rickie Fowler - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Min Woo Lee
Type: Min Woo Lee - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1400
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+230
Top 30 Finish+140
Top 40 Finish-110
Max Homa - Make Cut / Miss Cut
Type: Max Homa - Status: OPEN
Make-150
Miss+110
Wyndham Clark
Type: Wyndham Clark - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1400
Top 10 Finish+550
Top 20 Finish+230
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+110
Cameron Smith
Type: Cameron Smith - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1600
Top 10 Finish+650
Top 20 Finish+250
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+110
Keegan Bradley
Type: Keegan Bradley - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+200
Top 40 Finish+130
Maverick McNealy
Type: Maverick McNealy - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1600
Top 10 Finish+650
Top 20 Finish+250
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+110
Max Homa
Type: Max Homa - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1600
Top 10 Finish+650
Top 20 Finish+250
Top 30 Finish+175
Top 40 Finish+115
Rickie Fowler
Type: Rickie Fowler - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+220
Top 40 Finish+140
AdventHealth Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Kensei Hirata+1800
Mitchell Meissner+2200
SH Kim+2200
Neal Shipley+2500
Seungtaek Lee+2800
Hank Lebioda+3000
Norman Xiong+3000
Adrien Dumont De Chassart+3500
Chandler Blanchet+3500
Pierceson Coody+3500
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Robert MacIntyre
Type: Robert MacIntyre - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+175
Top 40 Finish+115
Sam Burns
Type: Sam Burns - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+110
Si Woo Kim
Type: Si Woo Kim - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+175
Top 40 Finish+115
Tony Finau
Type: Tony Finau - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1600
Top 10 Finish+650
Top 20 Finish+250
Top 30 Finish+175
Top 40 Finish+115
Aaron Rai
Type: Aaron Rai - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+2200
Top 10 Finish+900
Top 20 Finish+340
Top 30 Finish+200
Top 40 Finish+130
Andrew Novak
Type: Andrew Novak - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+1800
Top 10 Finish+800
Top 20 Finish+300
Top 30 Finish+170
Top 40 Finish+125
Regions Tradition
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Stewart Cink+550
Ernie Els+700
Steve Stricker+800
Steven Alker+800
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1000
Jerry Kelly+1400
Bernhard Langer+1600
Alex Cejka+1800
Retief Goosen+2500
Richard Green+2500
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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