Berger wins Charles Schwab Challenge in playoff

Conditions were difficult during the first round of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, where the 78 players in the field averaged a score of 1.3 strokes over par. Interestingly, 3 of the 4 par-5s played over par, a rare occurrence at PGA TOUR stops.  Our pre-tournament probabilities indicated that Justin Thomas was the class of this field by a wide margin. We estimated Thomas to be about two strokes better per round than the average PGA TOUR professional, while Brooks Koepka was the second-highest rated golfer at +1.6 strokes relative to an average professional. This may be surprising to readers, given that Koepka is fresh off being voted the PGA TOUR Player of the Year. Here is a closer look at Thomas’ and Koepka’s performances since 2014 (Thomas above; Koepka below): Indicated on these graphs are a player’s average adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained at each event (their “True SG�). Thomas has shown incredible consistency over the past year and a half, which is why the model favors him over Koepka. The top of the leaderboard after Thursday’s first round is mostly comprised of golfers in the middle or bottom of the skill distribution in this field. As a consequence, no single player is capturing a significant share of the win probability. Here are our current top 10 win probabilities: It’s not common for three of the top four win probabilities after Round 1 to belong to players outside of the top 10 of the leaderboard. None of the top golfers played particularly well on Thursday, but our model expects them to make up the ground they’ve ceded over the next three rounds. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut,� “Top 20,� “Top 5,� and “Win� probabilities every five minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10,000 simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. Follow on Twitter

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INZAI CITY, Japan — It was worth the trip to Japan for Keegan Bradley, who won the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP on Sunday with a 2-under 68, one shot ahead Rickie Fowler and Andrew Putnam for his first PGA TOUR win in just over four years. Bradley raised both arms to the sky and had to choke back tears after clinching the victory with a tap-in on 18. Bradley bogeyed two of the last five holes, but came through with a key birdie putt on the 17th to give him a two-shot lead going in the 18th ahead of playing partners Fowler and Putnam. Bradley’s last PGA TOUR victory was in 2018 at the BMW Championship. This is his fifth TOUR victory. Fowler also has not won on the TOUR for 3 1/2 years, and Putnam is winless in four years. The ZOZO, played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club on the outskirts of Tokyo, is the only PGA TOUR event in Japan. The prize money is $11 million with $1.98 million to the winner

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