Back in the playoffs, Tiger hasn’t lost his edge

The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is scheduled to begin at 7:50 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, and the interface for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live had all three bets for the first round loaded on Tuesday afternoon, so without further ado, let’s get right to it! Actually, there’s a little bit of ado. When Rob and Glass reviewed the 3-balls available in the interface, only four were offered, so they limited their two selections to them. PointsBet’s board already had a market for 24 of the 26 possible 3-balls, so more might be added (if they already aren’t by the time you’re reading this). If they are, it’s possible that either or both of our guys will make a change. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. TOURNAMENT TO WIN Rob … Cameron Champ (+12500) Where better to swing for the fence with this guy than in a tournament promised to give him four rounds? It’s the only scenario in which I’m endorsing him, because look at that kickback! At the end of the day, and despite the struggles, he’s a winner. He knows how to close the sale. That’s all that matters pre-tournament and in a format in which we’re allowed to make changes. Glass … Hideki Matsuyama (+1100) No jet lag. No cultural acclimation. No learning a new course. Read Horses for Courses to learn why Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is one of his favorites. If you’re busy this weekend like I am, set it and forget it. Heck, only big boys win events like this, so pick your favorite and adjust at 2:00 a.m. ET on Sunday as necessary or sleep on through! TOP 10 Glass … Sepp Straka (+360) Breakthrough came against Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger last year at Honda, so he won’t be worrying about that. Big field at TPC Southwind in the FedExCup Playoffs saw him finish second alone on a tough ball-striking course. Solo second in his only start this season at Sanderson Farms suggests he hasn’t cooled. My days of trying to chase the window are over. Rob … Aaron Rai (+560) I’m with Glass here. Don’t know about you, but I suffered the shutout in this bet at the Shriners. It was disappointing because I didn’t connect, but this game is like trick-or-treating on Halloween. You hope you don’t get a rock, but if you knock on enough doors … The Englishman lit up TPC Summerlin for a 62 in the third round, and he recently hung up a T5 in Italy, so his form is fine. Because I don’t mind reaching for him specifically at this value, I’ll sleep just fine, but he’s also in the vicinity of where I want to cash in a 78-man invitational with no cut. TOP 20 Rob … Keegan Bradley (+130) Because I can’t remember the last time when I was upright and lucid when this bet unlocked, my only objective with it this week is to get even or better value upon return. Besides, what little more can be found on the board isn’t enough to warrant the risk. My man-crush with Keegs dates back to his rookie season – it’s well-documented and I’m not ashamed – so it’s beautiful that he’s playing well enough and has the kind of success at Narashino that warranted a lofty perch in my Power Rankings. Glass … Matthew NeSmith (+200) Hit 64 of 72 GIR last week and cashed a career-best T2. His T9 the week before in Mississippi suggests he’s in a groove, and I’m willing to tag along. With a limited field, the long shots are few and far between. The Top 10 and Top 20 recently remind me of my first car. I had a sunroof that never opened. Stuck shut. Just like this window most weeks. Careful my friends! ROUND 1 LEADER Glass … Keegan Bradley (+3000) Ball-striking stud has a 63 here, good enough to share the course record, and he closed last season’s visit with 65. This is his third appearance and he’s hit T7 and T13 in his previous two, so he’s comfortable. I’d rather ride him for one round at 30-1 than four rounds for the same price. Try to steal 750 coins on day one and count your cash all weekend! Rob … Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000) Narashino CC is a sweet setup in that its respective pars are 34 and 36, and two of the three par 5s are on the inward nine, but scoring relative to par on both sides is much closer than you’d think. It’s because the easiest three of the 10 par 4s are in the outbound lane. So, I’ll open with one of the best putters in the field who’s going off No. 10 in the first threesome. The South African can build momentum before the turn and sustain it coming home. Unlike Glass, who is positioned three hours ahead of me and likely visiting the sandman before I do on Wednesday night, I’ll have more flexibility to adjust on the fly. Exploit every advantage, kids. 3-BALL #1 Glass … Keita Nakajima (+320) over Davis Riley and Kurt Kitayama Riley and Kitayama are nice players but the TWO-TIME Mark McCormack medal winner – first-ever to do so – should have the home-country advantage. Remember, this is one round, not four, and Nakajima has plenty of game. Nice longshot! Rob … Takumi Kanaya (+220) over Scott Stallings and Beau Hossler We’re loving on the host-country boys in this space, and for good reason. My pick scored lowered in every round en route to a T7 here last year, so he paid off the education. And since I’d be getting only 55 coins for the investment, it doesn’t matter much either way, anyway. 3-BALL #2 Glass … Hiroshi Iwata (+340) over Emiliano Grillo and Andrew Putnam If I’m going to roll with underdogs, let’s BARK BARK BARK with the man who opened with 63 here last year to tie the course record. He’s won and finished third in the last seven weeks, but he’s a big number due to a WD two weeks ago. As long as he makes it to the tee, we’re live! Rob … Stephan Jaeger (+150) over Wyndham Clark and Mikumu Horikawa Of the other three 3-balls available to us before we filed, the German is the most intriguing. He already was one of my Sleepers, so I was thrilled that he’s not the lowest value (Clark, +140) when I reviewed board. NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.

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For decades, players and fans alike have shared the colloquialisms common with Augusta National strategy. From the hilly terrain to the nuanced putting surfaces, “missing it in the right place,” and all points in-between. In recent years, the advent of Strokes Gained and its application in the major championships have provided a deeper understanding of what is required to win. That includes at Augusta National, where analytics have helped supplement the recent on-course stories played out by the world’s best. Its reputation as a ‘second shot’ golf course becomes even more fortified with a deep dive into the numbers. Little Penalty for Missing Fairway In order to best explain the significance of approach play at the Masters, the story begins with what players don’t have to worry about off the tee: rough. Annually, Augusta National yields the lowest penalty for missing fairways among major Tour venues around the world. Consider the rate at which players make birdie or better on certain holes across the last 10 Masters. On seven of 14 holes (par 4s and 5s), there is a difference of less than 10% in birdie-or-better rate depending on whether or not a player hits the fairway. For example, at the fifth hole, players who hit the fairway make birdie or better 8.7% of the time. Players who miss the fairway, 4.7%. Since 2010, players to finish in the top 10 at the Masters have averaged 9.6 fairways hit per round. Every other finisher at Augusta in that span has averaged almost the same total: 9.5. So while nobody wants to be stuck behind a pine tree, the numbers say that accuracy off the tee isn’t a significant advantage at the season’s first major. Approach Play Paramount In any given PGA TOUR season, a look at the Strokes Gained: Approach leaders often closely resembles the top of the Official World Golf Ranking. Six of the top-12 in this week’s OWGR are also ranked 12th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach per round this season on TOUR. That is to say, strong iron play is a prerequisite for great golf almost all the time. That is even more true at Augusta National, where five of the last seven champions have ranked top-five in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Approach. Jordan Spieth leads all players in that statistic since 2015, averaging 1.17 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. It’s no coincidence that he’s also the leader in cumulative score to par (45-under) and birdies-or-better (141) in that same stretch. Over the last eight PGA TOUR seasons, tournament winners have gained 35.4% of their strokes against the field with their approach play, the highest percentage of the four Strokes Gained disciplines (Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Putting being the others). At the Masters in that span, that number is a bit higher, 36.0%. While this doesn’t seem like an enormous gap, the margin at which the best iron players can separate themselves from the pack is clearly larger at Augusta than at the typical PGA TOUR venue. How about the more traditional metric of greens in regulation? Since 2012, nine of 10 Masters winners have ranked inside the top-seven that week in greens in regulation, averaging a stout 73.6%. The field average in that span is 61.3%. For the winners of every other PGA TOUR event in that span, the average GIR rate is 74.1% – not quite as high an advantage over the field (about 66%). There have been 10 Masters victories by three or more strokes since 1996. All 10 of those champions ranked sixth or better for the tournament in greens hit, with four of them leading the field outright. The Greens at Augusta National How does the significance of approach play compare to putting? Again, the margins are small, but they add up quickly when it comes to determining who wins the Green Jacket. For the last seven winners (as far back as the data goes), 33.6% of the strokes gained by tournament winners have come on the greens, a bit less than on approach (36.0%). In seven of those 28 rounds, winners have had negative Strokes Gained: Putting. That is only the case for five rounds when it comes to approach play. Five of the last six Masters winners have ranked outside the top-five that week in Strokes Gained: Putting; only two have done so in Strokes Gained: Approach. The four players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round at the Masters since 2015 are Rickie Fowler (+1.60), Russell Henley (+1.47), Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.85) and Justin Rose (+0.82). Tiger Woods’ 2019 Triumph Three years ago, Tiger Woods won his fifth Masters title thanks to a week of exquisite, vintage approach play. Woods hit more than 80% of his greens in regulation, most of any player in the field and the most by an April Masters champion since Tiger himself 18 years prior. He also led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining more than a full stroke in Rounds 1, 2 and 3, and a whopping 2.87 on Sunday. In all, more than 57% of Woods’ total strokes gained against the field for the week came from his approaches. Whoever authors their winning Masters story this week will likely follow a similar formula.

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