AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Round 2: Leaderboard, tee times, TV times

2023 Fortinet Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Max Homa (T1, -12, 40.1%) 2. Danny Willett (T1, -12, 18.4%) 3. Justin Lower (T3, -10, 6.8%) 4. Byeong Hun An (T3, -10, 6.4%) 5. Sahith Theegala (T5, -8, 4.2%) 6. Matt Kuchar (T5, -8, 3.7%) 7. Taylor Moore (T5, -8, 3.5%) 8. Robby Shelton (T8, -7, 1.0%) 9. Tom Hoge (T16, -5, 0.9%) 10. Ben Martin (T8, -7, 0.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Danny Willett +4.1 Around the Green: Dylan Wu +2.4 Approach the Green: Trey Mullinax +3.4 Off-the-tee: Austin Eckroat +2.4 Total: Danny Willett +7.9 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Fortinet Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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ERIN, Wis. – Imagine if Brian Harman had known a week ago that his score through 54 holes at the U.S. Open was 12 under. How large would his lead be? “About a 10-shot lead in most Opens,â€� Harman figured. Not at Erin Hills, which has been left defenseless this week by soft winds and even softer conditions. After a day of unprecedented low scoring, Harman leads by only one stroke over the trio of Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood. A dozen others are within six shots of the lead. None of those top 16 players have ever won a major. One of them will on Sunday. “Going to be a really cool day for someone tomorrow,â€� said Rickie Fowler, who’ll start his round two shots off the lead. “I’m looking forward to my shot.â€� The leaderboard is so packed and the scoring conditions so ripe that Harman, who’s making his first major start since missing the cut in all four in 2015, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s trailing when he steps on the first tee at 3:54 p.m. ET. The question, though, is which course will he and his chasers be playing on Sunday. Will Erin Hills continue to cough up birdies in abundance, or will it finally toughen up? Will we see a back-nine thrill ride on Sunday? Or will this U.S. Open revert back to previous ones, in which players simply hang on for dear life, par becoming a satisfying – and usually effective — score on each hole? Some of it depends on pin placements, of course. But much of it depends on the weather. It’s doubtful the course will play much firmer – rain began to fall soon after the third round ended – but the winds are supposed to increase to nearly 25 mph, which would be the strongest of the week. In addition, the winds are forecast to shift, and by early afternoon will be coming from the north. That means players must adjust their gameplans after spending the first three rounds playing with a southwest breeze. “That will change things,â€� Harman said. “If it comes out of the north, it’s going to be a different golf course.â€� Said Fleetwood: “If it does blow, you’ll definitely have to play proper golf. And it will play a lot tougher.â€� It also may mean players who hope to emulate Thomas’ big move on Saturday – in which he shot a record-setting 9-under 63, moving up 22 spots on the leaderboard – are out of luck. “It would be hard to make a real run with 25 mph winds,â€� Koepka said. “With that being said, he did shoot 9 under today.â€� No matter which direction or how hard the wind blows, you can probably expect a finish unlike most U.S. Opens. Erin Hills’ architects designed the course for the possibility of a back-nine sprint. The last six holes, in particularly, were set up that way, thanks to two par 5s and a short (and potentially drivable) par 4. Based on how those final six holes have played thus far, it could produce the most unique U.S. Open finish in quite some time. The par-3 13th was at its easiest when it played to 227 yards in the first round. It’s been shorter but harder the next two rounds, and ranks as the seventh most difficult hole on the course. The 14th has been the most difficult par 5 on the course this week, and has yet to be set up using the back tees at 650 yards. If that’s where the tee is Sunday, it might not be reachable in two, although players will benefit from having a northerly wind to their backs. The par-4 15th was set up at 288 yards on Saturday, which explains why it played to nearly a half-stroke under par, with three players making eagle. Will the USGA dare make it drivable again on Sunday? The yardage may not matter, as a north wind also will help there. The 16th has been the easiest par 3 this week, while the par-4 17th has been the most difficult hole on the course, twice playing to more than 520 yards. The 18th, meanwhile, is the easiest hole on the course, despite twice playing at more than 665 yards. The southerly winds have helped, but it may not be reachable on Sunday? Wisconsin native Steve Stricker, who starts the day 10 shots off the pace, expects the contenders to be aggressive on the last six holes – an unusual occurrence at most U.S. Opens. “It’s going to add some excitement, really, instead of a guy hitting it in the rough and hacking it out and struggling to make a par kind of thing,â€� he said. Those at the top of the leaderboard certainly have taken advantage of those final six holes. Harman is a bogey-free 7 under in that stretch this week. Si Woo Kim is 6 under. Koepka is a bogey-free 6 under. “The back nine really suits my eye,â€� Koepka said. “I don’t know why. I think there’s a lot of tee shots that are left to right. And that might be why. I just hit hard down the left-hand side and let it come back. “I love this golf course. I think it’s great.â€� Thomas is 9 under … and that’s just for the last four holes. He birdied three of them on Saturday. “Being this soft, birdies are going to happen,â€� Thomas said. Then he added: “You never know how the USGA is going to set it up for tomorrow.â€� So far, Erin Hills has proven quite friendly this week. Time to step on the gas for one more round.

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Justin Rose has experience holding a 54-hole lead at Aronimink Golf Club. The last one was a little larger, though. Rose held a four-shot lead entering the final round of the 2010 Quicken Loans National. He’d earned his first PGA TOUR win just two starts earlier, at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide, then lost the Travelers Championship with a Sunday 75. Rose was back in front in his following start, shooting 69-64-67 to take a four-shot lead over Carl Pettersson and Charlie Wi. He led by five strokes after eagling the par-5 ninth hole with a 5-wood that stopped inches from the hole. Three-putts on the back nine’s first two holes put the title in tenuous position, though. He made par on the final seven holes to finish one shot ahead of Ryan Moore. Moore’s 65 matched Sunday’s low score. “I knew having not closed out last week, it was important for me to do it today,â€� Rose said after that win. Rose now has nine PGA TOUR victories, including two this season (World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions, Fort Worth Invitational). He trailed by eight shots entering the final round in Shanghai and held a four-shot lead in Texas, where he had to hold off a hard-charging Brooks Koepka. Rose is 4 for 14 with a 54-hole lead in his PGA TOUR career and 1 for 2 in the FedExCup Playoffs. He won the 2011 BMW Championship but finished second at the following year’s TOUR Championship. He may not have to defend this lead, though. Rain is forecast throughout Sunday, so there is a chance that the tournament could be called after 54 holes. The final tee time was pushed up to 8:50 a.m. in an attempt to beat the weather. Aronimink is already soaked after Friday’s overnight rains, which delayed the start of the third round. Rose will play alongside 2016 FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy and reigning Rookie of the Year Xander Schauffele in Sunday’s final threesome. McIlroy and Schauffele are both one back. Rickie Fowler, who has shot three consecutive 65s, and Tommy Fleetwood, who fired back-to-back 62s, are two behind. “I don’t quite know how tomorrow is going to play out,â€� Rose said. “I don’t think anyone knows what to expect.â€� Rose knows what it takes to protect a lead at Aronimink, though. No one else in the field can say that. DRIVING IT HOME Twenty-eight third-round leaders/co-leaders have won on TOUR this season. Bryson DeChambeau was the most recent to do it, at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Seven leaders/co-leaders at the BMW Championship have gone on to win in the FedExCup era (since 2007). Last year’s winner, Marc Leishman, was the most recent.

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