Akie Iwai goes low with 63 to lead Japan Classic

It is a star-studded first page of the leaderboard through two rounds at the BMW Championship. This should come as no surprise to anyone, given the strength of this field. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our model: Rose and Schauffele lead the way with 16 and 15 percent chances of winning, respectively. The model estimates Rose to be about 1 stroke better per round than Schauffele, and therefore we expect Rose to cover the 2 stroke deficit he currently faces. Sitting just outside this top 10 is Tiger Woods, who we estimate to have a 2.9 percent chance at victory. It is likely surprising to many readers that our model is giving Finau a slightly higher win probability than Woods. However, take a look at their respective finish probabilities for a Top 20 and Top 5 finish: Tiger has a significantly higher probability of finishing in the top 20 than Finau. Our model actually rates Tiger slightly better than Finau in terms of expected score, but Tiger has been incredibly consistent this year (i.e. he has had a low standard deviation in scores). As a result, the model gives Tiger slightly less upside than Finau. It’s worth noting that we don’t allow for big differences across players in their predicted standard deviations (because past standard deviation only weakly predicts future standard deviation), but Woods has been a big outlier over the past year. Finally, here is a strokes-gained breakdown of Tiger’s round on Friday: It was an abysmal day on the greens for Woods; he finished last in the field of 69 on Friday in strokes-gained: putting. Despite the disappointing second round, Woods is still in excellent shape to advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship: our model estimates his chances at 97 percent. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The BMW Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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FORT WORTH, Texas – Justin Rose has spent a lot of time in the trees at the Fort Worth Invitational. His tee shots haven’t sent him there. His ballstriking has been superb thus far at Hogan’s Alley. The temperatures in the upper-90s have. Even the quickest respite from the scorching sun is welcome. “My caddie has done a great job of just literally handing me water bottle after water bottle. It seems relentless, to be honest with you,â€� Rose said. “I haven’t even seen the inside of a restroom yet, so you can’t drink quick enough.â€� He admitted that his focus started to flag on Saturday’s final holes as the mercury almost touched 100 degrees. “From that point, I was really trying to put one foot in front of the other and stay committed,â€� he said. The heat has been the biggest challenge for an elite player who appears to be in complete control of his game. Rose has put on a ball-striking display that would make Ben Hogan proud to build a four-shot lead after the first three rounds at Colonial. Rose shot 66 on Saturday and stands at 14-under 196. Emiliano Grillo (69) and reigning U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka (67) are tied for second. They’re the only ones within five shots of Rose. His four-shot lead matches the largest lead of his PGA TOUR career. He was victorious the previous two times that he started the final round four strokes ahead (2010 The National, 2011 BMW Championship). He knows that plenty of work remains, though. In November, he won the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions after Dustin Johnson lost a six-shot lead. Rose started the final round eight back of Johnson, but shot 67 to Johnson’s 77. “It is a big lead, but it isn’t big enough,â€� Rose said. “It’s not big enough to be counting the holes away. You have to go out and play good. You have to go out positive. You have to continue to make birdies and keep going forward.â€� Low scores are available at Colonial, where the bentgrass greens have to stay soft to withstand the heat. There have been 14 scores of 64 or lower this week. The scoring average was 68.5 on Saturday. “He has to go out and shoot under par,â€� Grillo said. “He’s got 50 guys behind him trying to reach him.â€� Rose will achieve history if he can convert. A victory would be his ninth on the PGA TOUR, matching Nick Faldo for the most by an Englishman (since 1983, when the TOUR started keeping victory records). A win would make Rose the fifth player with two wins this season and move him to No. 2 in the FedExCup. Rose has impressed after spending last week practicing with coach Sean Foley. Rose is playing Colonial for the first time in eight years to get a better gauge on where his game stands entering the summer. He closed 2017 with 10 consecutive top-10 finishes, and finished outside the top 10 just twice in 15 starts dating from the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs to this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. But he sandwiched a T12 at Augusta National between two lackluster performance, a T52 at the Houston Open and a T23 at THE PLAYERS, where he started the final round in 55th place. A final-round 66, including seven birdies in an eight-hole stretch, showed him things were moving in the right direction. “I really feel like I keyed into something,â€� Rose said about his last round at the Stadium Course. “We kind of made a few changes about a year ago, but the last few weeks, things have simplified a touch. Sometimes it can take that long before you understand a change or it begins to feel natural.â€� He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green (+2.64 strokes per round) and is tied for first in greens in regulation (43 of 54, 79.6 percent). He’s amassed this large lead despite making just one putt outside of 20 feet. In other words, he’s hit his irons well enough that he hasn’t needed to rely on a hot putter. He’s seventh in proximity to the hole this week, averaging 26 feet, 2 inches. The shortest club in the bag is also the most fickle, and it often deserts a player under Sunday pressure. Rose’s iron play has been rock solid for much of his career, though. All of his ballstriking stats confirm that he’s in complete control. He’s fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+1.16), sixth in fairways hit (28 of 42) and fifth in driving distance (286 yards). He hasn’t had to save par very often, but he feels like his short game has been there when he’s needed it. He’s made just three bogeys this week. And, he’s made 10 of 16 putts from 5-10 feet, helping him convert on so many of those strong iron shots. “Quite often, there’s one aspect of the game that doesn’t always feels good on the day, and you need something to back it up,â€� Rose said. “I feel like everything this week has been working at some point.â€� Grillo said the opening holes would be crucial to his chances Sunday. Rose birdied the first three to build a four-shot lead. He added another birdie at the sixth hole, then made just one birdie and one bogey the rest of the way. “You have to get off to a good start here,” Koepka said. “If you can birdie the first two, at least, put some pressure on Rosey, you’ll be just fine.” Rose was five shots ahead after Grillo’s bogey at the 15th hole, but Rose gave one back with a three-putt from the fringe on the 16th hole. Grillo had a chance to draw closer on the last hole, but missed an 11-foot birdie putt. Rose closed the day by sinking a 5-footer for par. “You can see how things can go both ways really quick,â€� Rose said. “That’s why there is no point in getting too far ahead of myself.â€�

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SILVIS, Ill. – You cry all the tears and put your life on hold. You hug your loved ones and look for ballast anywhere you can find it. You prepare, but are never really ready. And then, when it’s over, you begin to step back into your old life, unsteady but resolute. “Kandi just wanted to return to something normal,� Hunter Mahan said of his wife, whose sister, Katie Enloe, died of leukemia last week. “You’re never going to forget, but you’ve just got to wake up the next day, and God willing you will wake up the next day and start living.� Mahan returned to competition with a 1-under 70 in the first round of the John Deere Classic on Thursday. He is here in the Quad Cities with Kandi; their three children; Mahan’s mother, Cindy; and Kandi and Katie’s mom, Debbie. They’ve rented a house for the week and are trying to get back to normal, whatever that might be now. “We’ve heard the first year is the hardest with birthdays and holidays,� said Mahan, who has played the Web.com Tour and the PGA TOUR this season. “It’ll be a hard year. I have bad moments, and Debbie—a mother losing her kid is pretty heartbreaking.� For six-time TOUR winner Mahan, 36, getting back to normal looks like golf. On a muggy Thursday at TPC Deere Run, he drove his ball into an old divot hole in the 18th fairway, but after assessing the situation he hit his approach to just inside eight feet and made the birdie. After signing his scorecard, Mahan obliged a few autograph seekers and indulged a reporter. The orange “KJE� on his white golf bag was a reminder of his last few months. Katie Jo Enloe was 35, and in addition to her husband, Jason Enloe, the former Web.com Tour player and now SMU men’s golf coach, she left behind two daughters, Emma, 5, and Maddie, 3. “My girls, my family are devastated right now but believe in the good Lord that he will provide us all with peace and happiness in the future,� Jason Enloe wrote on Instagram. “I sincerely have appreciated the notes, phone calls and generous gestures during the last 6 months. God has a plan, and we must trust in him that Katie is in heaven and will guide all of us as we continue our journey on Earth.� Katie was diagnosed in January, and late last month left the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston to be surrounded by her family at home in Dallas. Mahan withdrew from the Quicken Loans National, where Meagan Laird, wife of PGA TOUR pro Martin, organized an orange-ribbon campaign for leukemia awareness in Katie’s honor. The campaign galvanized the players, one of whom was Ryan Armour, one of Jason’s best friends from the Web.com Tour, who would finish second to Francesco Molinari. Instead of worrying about the Quicken and the topography of TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Mahan was miles away both literally and figuratively, huddled up with his family. He had planned on playing A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, too, but couldn’t see how. The situation at his mother-in-law’s house back in Dallas was too dire. “We just stayed at Debbie’s house, and just bunked up on the floors and were with her,� Mahan said. “I would come home and take care of the kids, my mom would take care of the kids.� At the end, the call came at 4 a.m., and Hunter stayed home with the kids while Kandi rushed to her mother’s house. Katie died before Kandi got there. The funeral was last Friday. Now much of the family are here at the John Deere, thinking about Katie, yes, but also birdies and bogeys, Hunter’s FedExCup number (161), and other odd things from their old life. “My wife was ready to get out here,� Mahan said. “She hadn’t traveled in a long time. And it’s good for Debbie to get out here with us, get out of her house, which have bad memories for her right now. Good time for her to just start her process, whatever that is. Hard to imagine, but to be with her daughter and a couple of her grandkids is about as good a therapy as you can get. “Kind of the new reality for our family,� Mahan added. “It’s nice to be out here, but also you’re still sad and emotional about everything that’s happened. That won’t go away for a long time.�

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