After ‘ugly’ start, Tiger surges to lead in Japan

Greetings, gang. Say hello to the beginning of the remainder of the season. The Sentry Tournament of Champions is tournament No. 9 of 46, but it’s the first since Charles Howell III became the last to qualify with victory at The RSM Classic on Nov. 18. The impossibly short, official offseason that exists between the TOUR Championship and Safeway Open contributes to many leagues sitting out the fall. If you’re in one and new to reading this weekly column, I review numerous notables for every tournament even though my little league competes in all 46 tournaments. Whether it was leading off the season (through 2013) or since it’s served as the annual restart in the wraparound era, the limited-field affair on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort always has rolled out like a soft open. It’s real business, just sans the stress that goes with what’s at stake beginning with next week’s Sony Open in Hawaii. All 34 in the field on Maui are fully exempt on the PGA TOUR through at least 2019-20 and there is no cut. It’s a time to live large and get fat. They’ve earned it. Customarily eliminating all nine first-time participants, including Rory McIlroy, Kevin Tway, Cameron Champ and Aaron Wise, logic encourages us to throw a haymaker at the piñata with 500 FedExCup points awaiting the one who breaks it open. After all, the likes of Dustin Johnson (twice), Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas all have prevailed on Kapalua in the last six years, and none was a tournament debutant. Yet, because the event arrives so early in the season, and because you’d need to emerge victorious to think that burning a behemoth was worth it, only those in pursuit should consider the option. Otherwise, holstering the like of DJ, Thomas, Jason Day and Brooks Koepka for the majors and Playoffs is smart. Note that I didn’t loop Reed into that short list. As roster gamers would be quick to explain, and given how his ownership percentages have tracked over time, he’s not a guy who’s expected to contend for victory often. He’s the guy who’ll get you a top 15 or top 25. However, at Kapalua and in the One & Done, he’s an easy endorsement. Jon Rahm already has built a portfolio of sites at which we’re more comfortable than where Reed presents strongly, but the Spaniard is comin’ in hot. With last year’s (distant) runner-up finish at Kapalua, he’s also one of the rare success stories in a first appearance. This sets up to be a banner year, so he’ll continue to attract our attention, but he’s not quite at the level of the others in whom we have more trust on the bigger stages. Marc Leishman sits No. 1 in my Power Rankings, but note that the Sentry TOC doesn’t even qualify as one of his sensible spots in Future Possibilities. Perhaps next year. The same goes for Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson and Francesco Molinari. Holster. Bubba Watson is making his season debut this week. The tournament slots third among his targets, but there’s a massive drop-off after the Genesis Open (1) and Travelers Championship (2), both of which he’s defending this season. Reduce your pick to one of those two. Because of the format and the depth eventually reached over the course of the season, two-man gamers are not instructed to dismiss first-timers. Combined with guaranteed FedExCup points and earnings, the limited field warrants consideration for Champ or Wise to ride shotgun. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Keegan Bradley … Farmers (2); Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Paul Casey … WGC-Mexico (6); Honda (10); Valspar (7; defending); WGC-Match Play (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (1); TOUR Championship (3) Jason Day … Sentry (8); Farmers (2; defending); Pebble Beach (1); Arnold Palmer (5); PLAYERS (7); WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (6 defending); PGA Championship (3); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (9) Bryson DeChambeau … Waste Management (5); Arnold Palmer (3); Heritage (1);  Memorial (2; defending); Travelers (4); John Deere (7) Billy Horschel … Honda (4); Arnold Palmer (7); Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Charles Howell III … Sony (3); Desert Classic (4); Farmers (1) Dustin Johnson … Sentry (4; defending); Pebble Beach (2); Genesis (3); WGC-Mexico (5); Masters (8); PGA Championship (11); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (1); WGC-St. Jude (6); TOUR Championship (7) Brooks Koepka … WGC-Match Play (3); Masters (7); PGA Championship (2; defending); Charles Schwab (6); U.S. Open (1; two-time defending); Open Championship (8) Matt Kuchar … Sony (3); Waste Management (4); PLAYERS (5); Valspar (9); Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Marc Leishman … Farmers (2); Arnold Palmer (1); Byron Nelson (6); Memorial (4); Travelers (3); Open Championship (8) Rory McIlroy … Arnold Palmer (2; defending); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (5); Travelers (8); Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (6) Francesco Molinari … Desert Classic (5); Arnold Palmer (2); PLAYERS (3); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (1; defending) Kevin Na … Genesis (2); Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Scott Piercy … Sony (3); New Orleans (1; co-defending); Canadian (7; last winner at Hamilton in 2012) Jon Rahm … Sentry (2); Desert Classic (3; defending); Farmers (6); Waste Management (4); Masters (5); Charles Schwab (1); TOUR Championship (7) Patrick Reed … Sentry (2); Pebble Beach (6); Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Xander Schauffele … Genesis (6); PLAYERS (5); U.S. Open (3); Open Championship (4); TOUR Championship (1) Webb Simpson … Sony (3); Desert Classic (11); Waste Management (2); Honda (10); PLAYERS (5; defending); Heritage (6); Wells Fargo (7); Charles Schwab (8); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1) Brandt Snedeker … Sentry (4); Farmers (3); Waste Management (8); Pebble Beach (2); Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Justin Thomas … Sentry (6); Sony (4); WGC-Mexico (2); Honda (7; defending); PLAYERS (11); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (8); TOUR Championship (3) Bubba Watson … Sentry (3); Waste Management (4); Genesis (1; defending); WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8) Gary Woodland … Sony (1); Farmers (2); Waste Management (3; defending); Memorial (4)

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The fourth and final tournament in the Florida Swing is The Honda Classic, which will play on the Champion Course at PGA National. The course is a par 70, measuring 7,125 yards and will be putt on Bermuda greens. Last season, the tournament was first in the Florida Swing and won by Sungjae Im (+1300, $11,000). Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] STRATEGY PGA National is a Tom Fazio design that was renovated a few times over the past couple of decades by Jack Nicklaus. One of the more evident and consequential changes was back in 2018 when the greens increased close to 30% in size to around 7,000 feet on average. Past winners also include Keith Mitchell (+10000, $7,200), Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler (+4500, $8,900), Rory McIlory, Russell Henley (+3000, $9,800), Padraig Harrington (+25000, $6,800) twice and Adam Scott. PGA National is a challenging course. In scoring relative to par, The Honda Classic has ranked inside the top 5 most difficult courses over the past few years and has been one of the few non-major tournaments annually to rank this high. The greens have consistently played difficult, recording around 59 percent hit in regulation rate, which is more than 10 percent less than the TOUR average. Something we've seen consistently on the Florida Swing is golfers electing accuracy off-the-tee over distance and PGA National is no exception. A ton of water, which is in play on virtually every hole, and the potential for windy conditions play a pivotal role in why average driving distance is 11 yards less here than the TOUR average. Since 2016, 25 percent of rounds have played in extremely windy conditions, and only 10 percent have played in calm conditions. The infamous "Bear Trap," hole Nos. 15-17, is a daunting challenge coming in. Per SHOT LINK data from last season, these three rank as the third-toughest stretch on TOUR among courses that have been played in at least 10 or more seasons since 2007 (non-majors). Two of the holes are par 3s, which rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest on the course. Those who finish inside the top 5 are gaining more strokes on the par 3s than the par 4s and par 5s. Par 4 efficiency will be important as it is with all par 70s. GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Joaquin Niemann (+2000 to Win, $10,400 on DraftKings) Niemann struggled on Sunday last week but still finished inside the top 30, gaining 1.2 strokes tee-to-green. Niemann doesn't have the best record on Bermuda greens but has gained strokes in six of his past 12 rounds with his flat stick on said surface. Putting will matter at PGA National, but not as much as ball striking, and Niemann, who's one of the best drivers of the ball, should do well here, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 19th in approach over his previous 24 rounds. His work on the par 4s over his last two dozen rounds has gotten him inside the top 20 in par 4 efficiency, and he hasn't lost strokes tee-to-green in nine measured rounds this season. Russell Henley (+3000 to Win, $9,800 on DraftKings) Henley couldn't make the weekend at TPC Sawgrass last week, losing close to three strokes with his irons, which is unlike him. Still, Henley has been one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR over the past couple of seasons and has an impeccable record at PGA National, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Total here since 2016. Henley's extremely accurate Off-the-Tee and is precise with his approaches from 175 to 200 yards, ranking 21st in the field over the past 24 rounds. Hopefully, his missed cut last week keeps his roster percentage lower than it should be at a par 70, Bermuda course in Florida. Chez Reavie (+12500 to Win, $7,000 on DraftKings) Reavie suffered a similar fate as Henley at THE PLAYERS, but it was at the hands of his putter, losing 6.1 strokes on the greens last week. Conversely, he gained four strokes with his irons and 1.4 Off-the-Tee. His short game has been dreadful, but he's gained with his ball-striking in four straight starts. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. For Masters odds, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? 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