2017 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Round 3: Leaderboard, tee times, TV schedule

There was plenty of starpower on display Thursday at TPC Sawgrass for the first round of THE PLAYERS. The afternoon pairing of Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson drew the biggest crowds, but they didn’t provide them with much to cheer about. All three players have work to do tomorrow if they would like to secure a tee time on the weekend: Woods (Even par, 71 percent made cut probability), Fowler (2 over par, 42 percent), and Mickelson (7 over par, 2 percent). Here is how their respective cut probabilities evolved throughout the day: TPC Sawgrass is best known for its water-filled finishing three holes. It is a great stretch of golf in part due to the wide variance in outcomes it can produce. This variance (or, at least one side of it) was on full display today during the finish to Hideki Matsuyama’s round. Matsuyama arrived at the 16th tee 1 over par and, according to our model, with about a 50 percent chance of making the cut. Three holes later he was 7 over par, and now has just a 2 percent chance of making it to the weekend. In a single hole (the par-3 17th), Matsuyama’s cut probability fell from 33 percent to just 1 percent thanks to a quintuple bogey 8. Heading into Friday’s play, there are 85 players at Even par or better (T69th position). Our model is projecting tomorrow’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): Even par: 61 percent 1 under par: 38 percent 1 over par: 1 percent A final note from Thursday’s play: TPC Sawgrass played decidedly more difficult for the afternoon group of players than it did for the morning wave. This final graphic details the hole-specific differences in scoring averages between the morning and afternoon. Perhaps not surprisingly, the island green 17th hole played the most different between the two waves, playing 0.4 strokes more difficult in the afternoon. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the THE PLAYERS Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Adam Hadwin ... As understandable as it is to accept that he went six months post-shutdown without a top 25 because his first child was born very early in 2020, it's also reason to elevate the expectations again now. After taking time to celebrate his daughter's first birthday a few weeks ago, he returned to competition with a T32 at PGA WEST and a T18 at Torrey Pines. Not only did the latter end the top-25 drought, it also was a personal-best finish of six appearances. The 33-year-old Canuck carries that momentum into TPC Scottsdale where he's been a fixture since his rookie season of 2014-15. Dating back to a T17 in his second start in 2016, he's 5-for-5 with a pair of top 20s. Patton Kizzire ... With his 35th birthday a month away (on March 3), his recent performances align with being in his prime. He's strung together eight consecutive paydays, four of which for a top 25. The latest was a T7 at Waialae where he prevailed three years ago. He's also 4-for-5 at TPC Scottsdale but he's still in pursuit of his first top 30. If his play upon arrival isn't enough to convince that he'll record a personal best this week, consider that he's currently T18 on TOUR in total driving, 43rd in greens hit, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Putting and 20th in adjusted scoring. Keith Mitchell ... The 29-year-old has been enduring the learning curve since a successful rookie season of 2017-18 and breakthrough victory at The Honda Classic in 2019. Only a chosen few are immune from its gravitational pull. For those who survive it, it should be referred to instead as the rite of passage. He had been mostly quiet since a T5 at Bay Hill in the week before the pandemic wiped away three months of competition in 2020. Then, as unpredictable as golf can be, he went off for respective middle rounds of 62 and 63 at Waialae three weeks ago and finish T14. If that indicates that he's "close" - and why shouldn't it? - perhaps he can find some of the same magic at TPC Scottsdale where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and total driving en route to a T16 last year. Nate Lashley ... Among the throng of Scottsdale residents sleeping in their own beds this week. While it can be a distraction seemingly as often as it's beneficial, he proved the latter in his debut last year. After withdrawing from his previous start at PGA WEST with an injured wrist two weeks prior, he went on to connect four sub-70s for a three-way tie for third place with consistently strong approach play taking the pressure off his putter and allowing it to do work. It's the kind of formula that defines local knowledge even in a tournament debut. Furthermore, there wasn't much in advance to suggest that a reversal of form was on tap. It's a narrative that could be repeated in his return. Since the podium finish at TPC Scottsdale, he's recorded only one top-35 finish, that a solo fourth at Corales in September. Bo Hoag ... The PGA TOUR sophomore isn't taking his card for granted after squeaking into the 2020 FedExCup Playoffs as the last man inside the top-125 bubble. He's 5-for-11 this season with three top 25s and sits 97th in points. After stumbling out of the gate in the fall, he's signed for 16 red numbers following 18 rounds, including both on the South Course at Torrey Pines on the weekend where he finished T18 for his second top 20 in as many weeks. Now he descends on TPC Scottsdale for the first time with a solid blend of precision on approach and confidence with the putter. He ranks 12th in conversation percentage inside 10 feet. NOTE: Sleeper is a relative term, so Rob uses unofficial criteria to determine who qualifies. Each of the following usually is determined to be ineligible for this weekly staple: Winners of the tournament on the current host course; winners in the same season; recent major champions; top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking; recent participants of team competitions.

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. – There’s a small, handwritten note in the Quail Hollow clubhouse that points out the course record and the direction of the first tee. The sign, which hangs in a hallway that leads out of the club’s bag room, sits under an oversized scorecard, written in perfect Calligraphy, that commemorates the 61 that Rory McIlroy shot here three years ago. It almost had to be replaces Saturday, as Peter Uihlein took advantage of softer conditions to shoot a 62 that put him in contention at the Wells Fargo Championship. Pars on his final three holes kept Uihlein from matching McIlroy’s mark, but Uihlein now owns the lowest score at Quail Hollow since it underwent renovations before last year’s PGA Championship. He has a chance to win after sneaking into the weekend with just a shot to spare. He made just three birdies over the first 36 holes hole, shooting back-to-back 72s to start Saturday’s round in 48th place. “The way the golf course was set up today, it felt you could get after it a bit,� Uihlein said. “The first two days felt like a U.S. Open.� He teed off at 8:46 a.m. Saturday and walked off the 18th green almost an hour before the final group teed off. When he signed for his seven birdies and an eagle, Uihlein was tied for first with 36-hole leader Peter Malnati. It was Uihlein’s best single-round performance this season in both Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting. He parred the first four holes, then played his next six holes in seven under. He capped off the run by hitting a 3-iron to 14 feet at the par-5 10th hole and making the putt for eagle. “It started out very innocently, and then in the middle of that stretch, the quality of shots he hit – the high, cut 6-iron into 6, and then on 10, hitting a 340-yard drive over the bunker and hitting a 3-iron into the green – at that point you kind of sensed that something is going to happen,� said playing partner Mackenzie Hughes, who shot 70. “He played phenomenally. It was a clinic. I was getting lapped.� Uihlein added birdies at Nos. 14 and 15, then concluded his bogey-free round with three consecutive pars. He missed birdie putts of 24 feet and 40 feet on Nos. 16 and 17, then saved par after his approach shot to 18 trickled off the green. A 31-footer at the ninth hole was the only putt for birdie or eagle that he made from outside 15 feet. Five of those eight putts were shorter than 10 feet. He didn’t miss from inside 15 feet Saturday, making all 17 of his attempts. He gained 3.4 strokes with his putter after needing just 25 putts. He holed all five of his attempts from 3-7 feet and both of his putts from 10-15 feet. He is currently the fourth alternate for THE PLAYERS Championship, but could gain entry in the field with a win this week. This isn’t the first time Uihlein had an opportunity to break 60 in a professional event. He shot 60 at Kingsbarns in the 2013 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He just missed an eagle putt at the last that would have given him the first 59 in European Tour history. The 28-year-old is playing his first season on the PGA TOUR after graduating from last year’s Web.com Tour Finals, where he won the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He ranks 86th in the FedExCup after finishing in the top 10 in two events in Asia last fall. He finished T10 at the CIMB Classic and T5 at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions. Before this week, he’d missed the cut in five of his previous 11 starts. His only top-25s were T17s at the CareerBuilder Challenge and World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions. Uihlein switched coaches last December and now works with Justin Parsons. Uihlein made practice swings Saturday with his glove tucked under his right armpit, a drill that helps him maintain the connection between his arms and body. It worked. He hit 15 of 18 greens Saturday, gaining slightly more than three strokes on the field with his approach play. McIlroy’s final-round 62 in 2010 remains the best single round from a Strokes Gained perspective at Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship. He gained 10.7 strokes on the field with that round, which led to his first PGA TOUR victory. He shot 66-62 on the weekend after making the cut on the number. McIlroy gained 10.2 strokes with his third-round 61 in 2015 that led to his second Wells Fargo Championship. McIlroy’s record is safe. Now Uihlein will focus on trying to win his first PGA TOUR event.  

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