Statistically Speaking: Sentry Tournament of Champions

The 2023 portion of the PGA TOUR season begins with spectacular views from Maui at the lovely Plantation Course in Kapalua for an incredible 25th year running, but to steal a theme from PGA TOUR player Kevin Kisner… this ain’t no holiday. Kisner (who has picked up a cult following using his phrase, “this ain’t no hobby”), is sadly not one of a field of 39 players in Maui for the first of the TOUR’s new designated events that sees a huge purse increase from $8.2 million to $15 million and FedExCup points for the winner also rise to 550. As such the holiday isle will see a stacked field with 17 of the top 20 players in the world gearing up for a shootout as Mother Nature isn’t ready for prime time just yet. Of course there will be breezes but the Coore/Crenshaw layout is designed for just that as Kapalua provides the largest targets off the tee and into the greens on TOUR. The Par-73 layout stretches to 7,596 yards but there’s plenty of tract playing down the mountain to shorten the length. Judging the elevation changes, uneven lies and just over two inches of Bermuda will provide the challenges, relatively speaking, this week. Defending champion Cameron Smith (not entered) set the PGA TOUR tournament scoring record on 34-under and did so without breaking the course record. That was left to Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones (not entered this week) as they posted 12-under 61 to establish the new mark. The fact is, the Golfbet crew cannot ignore the scoring stats this week when looking for a gaming or fantasy edge. Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season. Strokes Gained: Approach the Green The first key in a shootout is finding as many Greens In Regulation (GIR) as possible. With some of the largest targets on TOUR I’m looking for the snipers who can hone in on flag sticks and create prime scoring chances. Of the last eight winners only Harris English (2021) has finished outside of the top seven in this category. Note: Billy Horschel (1), Tom Hoge (3), Tony Finau (4), Tom Kim (5), Cameron Young (6) and Collin Morikawa (13) all rank inside the top 15 of this stat so far THIS season. Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage Welcome aboard! Now, it’s time to pay off the approaches. TifEagle installed before the 2020 edition won’t be the issue. The greens will be ready, as they are annually, to accept eagle and birdie chances. Aggressive lines and speeds will pay off as the Stimpmeter (around 11 feet) is protection if the wind picks up. The last two seasons the Plantation Course has ranked in the top three on TOUR in this category. Of the last eight winners, six have ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 for the week. Note: Patrick Cantlay (1), Tony Finau (4), Jon Rahm (5), and Max Homa (8) all rank inside the top 10 of this stat so far THIS season. Par Breakers Nothing wrong with making pars this week as the absence of a cut will see all players complete four rounds. Those will grander aspirations and expectations will accept that birdies and eagles need to be the rule, not the exception. Of the courses used the last two seasons on TOUR, Kapalua has ranked first or second easiest in this category. Jon Rahm tied the TOUR record for most birdies in an event last year with 32. He didn’t win. Cameron Smith, who is not defending this season, circled 31 but also added three eagles. Note: Patrick Cantlay (1), Jon Rahm (2), Tony Finau (5), Seamus Power (7), Max Homa (8) and Brian Harman (1o) all rank inside the top 10 of this stat so far THIS season. Rounds in the 60s Of the top 15 players in 2022 only two of 60 rounds were posted at 70 or worse. In 2021 there were only seven from the top 12 finishers. With very similar conditions forecast this year this should hold again. Last year the top three players would have won the previous 23 Sentry TOC with their winning totals. The top 18 last year and top nine players in 2021 were all 20-under or better. Rounds under par are great but rounds in the 60s will be difference makers. Find guys who have no problem racking ’em up! Note: Seamus Power (8) ranks inside the top 10 of this stat so far THIS season. Justin Thomas has 20 career rounds of 63 or better, most on TOUR since 2015. The Bottom Line Not surprisingly two-time event winner Justin Thomas (Win: +1100; Top 5: +175; Top 10: -160; Top 20: -700) jumps off the page as does the hottest player from 2022 in Scottie Scheffler (Win: +900; Top 5: +140; Top 10: -225; Top 20: -1000). Xander Schauffele (Win: +1100; Top 5: +175; Top 10: -165; Top 20: -800) has had a ton of success in limited field, big money events and lines up almost as nicely. Sam Burns (Win: +2500; Top 5: +375; Top 10: +140; Top 20: -350) and Russell Henley (Win: +4000; Top 5: +550; Top 10: +220; Top 20: -200) have burning red hot track records on Bermuda surfaces also. Good luck! Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org

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