A borrowed driver, and Young is off and running again

Officially the month of the bracket, March annually has the world talking seeds, breaking down matchups and making picks more than any other time on the calendar. Hoops has its madness, but the unpredictability in basketball is pedestrian compared to this week’s World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play. Each of the last three winners of this championship were seeded outside the top-30. That’s like having three 8-seeds (or lower) in a row cut down the nets after winning it all. If you’re looking at seeding alone, good luck predicting what will happen this week in Austin. This is the seventh year this championship has been contested under the group play format, where everyone in the 64-man field is guaranteed three round-robin matches before the 16 group winners move on to single elimination. Twenty First Group dove into the numbers behind one of the PGA TOUR’s most unique events. Significance of Seeding – If you want to sum up the unpredictable nature of this championship with one statistic, it’s this one: last year, players with the worse seed in a match had a winning record (48-45-18). – In 2021, half of the players who advanced to the round of 16 came from the “D” group of seeds – players tabbed between 49 and 64. Only one player from the “A” group moved on – third overall seed Jon Rahm. – That isn’t to say chalk hasn’t had its good years in this event: the top overall seed has won five times, including twice since pool play started (Rory McIlroy in 2015, Dustin Johnson in 2017). In 2016, 12 of the 16 players to advance out of pool play came from either the A or B seed groupings. – Since pool play began in 2015, the ‘A’ group has just a slight edge in percentage of players to reach the round of 16: 30.2%. The B and D group have sent 24.0%; the C group 21.9%. Truly, anybody who gets into this elite field is capable of having a big week: the last five times this championship has been played, a player seeded 61st or lower has moved on to the round of 16 five times. Situational Stats – The tournament moved to Austin Country Club in 2016. Since then, the opening hole has been a significant harbinger of match outcome: players who win the first hole either win or tie the match more than 68% of the time. No player has won the opening hole more at Austin CC than Bubba Watson (12 times in 21 matches). He went 4-0-0 when taking the first en route to victory here in 2018. – Overall, players who lead at the turn at Austin CC go on to win the match 75.5% of the time. That percentage fluctuates wildly depending on the size of the advantage: players 1 up at the turn win 59.2% of the time – 2 up, that rate jumps to 77.1%. – The short par 4 13th, one of Austin CC’s most memorable holes, isn’t just an entertaining risk-versus-reward decision for the players. It also might be the most important hole on the course when it comes to determining the outcome of a match. Since 2016, the 13th has been won 30.4% of the time, the highest rate of any hole on the golf course. No player has won the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play with a losing record on the 13th hole over the course of that week. – Walking off the 13th green has proven to be a key point in the match: players with a 1 up advantage through 13 holes have won the match 60.3% of the time, and have either won or halved 84.4% of the time. A player with a 2 up lead going to the 14th tee has gone on to win at a clip of nearly 87%. – The unique closing hole has proven to give players one final opportunity to make up ground. There have been 139 instances so far at Austin CC where a player has been 1 down in their match going to the 18th tee. In 47 of those instances – 33.8% – the player trailing has won the 18th to tie the match and salvage a valuable half-point. Players to Watch – World No. 1 Jon Rahm has won 32% of his career holes played in this event. Among players in the field this week with at least 60 holes played in competition, that’s the highest clip of anyone. Rahm’s 94 holes won since 2017 are tied for second-most of any player in that span, trailing only Matt Kuchar (not in this year’s field). – This is a week where bettors and fantasy players can find significant value in C and D group players. For example, there are four players in the field this week who have won 30.3% or more of their holes played in this championship since 2018: Bubba Watson (33.0%), Alex Noren (31.1%), Keegan Bradley (30.6%) and Mackenzie Hughes (30.3%). Each of those players is seeded 50th or worse entering the tournament. – A pair of European Ryder Cup legends in the field this week have seen their match play success carry over into this event. Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia have each qualified for the round of 16 on eight occasions, tied for most all-time (Tiger Woods, Kuchar). Garcia has been especially successful on the 13th hole – his nine wins on that hole are tied for second-most since 2016. – Poulter is a perfect 9-0-0 in his career at Austin CC when holding the lead at the turn in a match. Two other players in this week’s field are also perfect in five or more opportunities: Kevin Kisner (9-0-0) and Patrick Reed (6-0-0). – Scottie Scheffler nearly broke through with his first career PGA TOUR title in his college town of Austin last year. He ultimately lost in the championship match to Billy Horschel, 2 and 1. Now a multiple winner on TOUR, Scheffler hopes to continue a trend of players following up runner-up performances with strong weeks at Austin CC: the previous two players in his shoes – Kevin Kisner in 2019 and Matt Kuchar last year – combined to go 12-2-0. Kisner won it all, while Kuchar made it to the semifinals.

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RIO GRANDE, Puerto Rico — PGA TOUR rookie Viktor Hovland shot a 6-under 66 on Friday at windy Coco Beach for a share of the Puerto Rico Open lead. Related: Leaderboard | Brotherhood of the slump: How TOUR pros found their way back The 22-year-old Norwegian eagled the par-5 second and rebounded from a late bogey on a par 5 with a birdie to join first-round leader Kyle Stanley, Josh Teater and Emiliano Grillo at 10-under 134. “I feel like the wind is blowing out of the same direction here every day, so I think we’ll see the course playing very similar to the first couple days,” Hovland said. “I’m sure the pins are going to be a little more tucked in the corners the next two days, so it will be interesting to see how it plays.”: Hovland dropped a stroke on the par-5 15th, then got back to 10 under with a birdie on the par-4 17th. The former Oklahoma State player won the 2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach, then became the first player since Matt Kuchar in 1998 to sweep low amateur honors at The Masters and U.S. Open. “It’s been pretty windy, which I’m kind of used to in Oklahoma,” Hovland said. “I’ve just been playing good the last couple weeks. Not as good as I would have liked, but I’m definitely trending in the right direction, so it will be fun to play the weekend.” Stanley followed an opening 64 with a 70. “You don’t get really too many straight down or straight in, it’s just a ton of crosswinds,” Stanley said. “That can be kind of tough to control your ball in those conditions. My miss right now is a little bit of a right ball, so I’m loving the right-to-left wind holes and I need to get a little more comfortable on some of the left-to- right ones.” Grillo birdied the final two holes in a 68. “A little bit up and down with the tee shots, but it’s been good so far,” Grillo said. “I kept the ball in front of me. I was able to convert pretty much every single time that I had a chance.” Teater also shot 68. “I think a lot of times I get in this wind and I try to fight it, just kind of maybe get my ball position too far back,” Teater said. “I kind of made an adjustment to put it up a little bit and kind of let it help me instead of try to fight it. And on top of that, I think I’m rolling the ball well.” Sam Ryder was a stroke back after a 65. David Lingmerth (65), Ben Martin (66), Rhein Gibson (70) and Martin Laird (69) were 8 under. Defending champion Martin Trainer missed the cut with rounds of 74 and 73. Tom Lewis also failed to advance. He shot 73-76.

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