Statistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in Vegas

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – Webb Simpson has not only beaten his putting demons – he’s annihilated them. Caught in a three-year mire after the rule makers in golf banned the anchored belly putter style he used to win four times on the PGA TOUR – including the U.S. Open – Simpson wondered if he’d ever come out the other side. Making the change to a conventional putter and stroke had proven to be non-effective and he stubbornly refused to be open minded about trying new styles. This despite the fact the stats suggested he should. Simpson went from being ranked inside the top 53 players for Strokes Gained: Putting from his debut year in 2009 through the 2014 season to a basement ranking of 174th in 2015 and 177th in 2016. But an argument with caddie Paul Tesori on the subject finally cracked open the window to a resurrection. “The lowest point ended up being the turning point,â€� he said of the argument at THE NORTHERN TRUST during the FedExCup Playoffs in 2016. “It was just frustration pent up in both of us. We go sit in my car for about an hour. I’m so frustrated, I’m over it, and he is, too, and he kind of encouraged me to really do something about it. Tesori suggested Simpson start calling guys who had had putting issues and guys who were known as great putters. Pick brains. Try anything and everything. “I was too closed minded but then just tried to learn a lot about putting and what’s important,â€� Simpson said. “So talking to great putters helped, Aaron Baddeley and Brandt Snedeker, had tons of conversations with those guys. I didn’t start putting better immediately, but it’s what led to using the Kuch-style putter, and it’s what led to me being open to listening to Tim Clark here a year ago.â€� Clark, a fellow PLAYERS Champion, suggested Simpson try the claw grip with the mid-length putter. It proved a masterstroke. After gaining 9.368 strokes on the field this week at TPC Sawgrass in putting Simpson now ranks fifth overall on the PGA TOUR this season. He disagreed with the anchor ban – still does – but has now moved well past it. “I’ve never putted this well in my life,â€� he said. “It’s funny how those things happen but this is probably the first time I can say I’m glad they banned it, because I wouldn’t have ever probably swayed away from the belly putter.â€� After breaking a win drought that had stretched from October 2013, Simpson now has his sights set on even more success. He is already Hall-Of-Fame eligible thanks to this victory but wants to add many more to become an automatic choice. “To beat the best field in golf will give me confidence going into the majors and World Golf Championship events,â€� he said. “Everybody on TOUR wants to think of themselves as a top player, and I want to get back to kind of that top-level caliber that I played at for a few years. “More importantly, I just want to keep getting better. I want to enjoy this. It’s going to boost my confidence, but I want to build on it and be in contention more in big tournaments. I haven’t been able to do that as much as I want.â€� OBSERVATIONS TIGER WOODS IGNITES TPC SAWGRASS… Two-time PLAYERS Champion Tiger Woods sat outside the cut line late on Friday before getting a late reprieve. He then shot 65 on Saturday and was six birdies deep through 12 holes Sunday to pull into a tie for second place just four shots back. It reminded us just how close we might be to an 80th PGA TOUR win. Read about Tiger’s travails here. JUSTIN THOMAS IS No. 1 EVERYWHERE… Already FedExCup No.1 Justin Thomas shot a final round 6-under 66 to finish T11 and now moves to world no.1. It ends Dustin Johnsons 64 week run at the top. Read his thoughts on overtaking Johnson here. JASON DAY’S SHOULDER PAIN… FedExCup No. 2 Jason Day was four under on his final round at the turn and perhaps one of the players who could make Webb Simpson nervous. But he was unable to find any birdies on the back side and settled for a T5 finish. It was the Wells Fargo Championship and Farmers Insurance Open winner’s fourth top-5 finish of the season. Of minor concern was a wince after his second shot into the par-5 16th hole. “Every now and then it happens where my shoulder feels like it pops out but it’s like more of a sting,â€� Day explained. “I don’t know if it’s because I’ve had back issues and it’s gone from my back to my shoulder now… It’s more on the transition, so when I go to the top and then I start to unwind, then it is like a stinging pain and then flipped it and went left. So just unfortunately just at the wrong time there because obviously you can get maybe get an eagle and get something going. But, it is what it is.â€� NOTABLES DUSTIN JOHNSON – Despite a decent T17 finish, his eighth top 25 from nine PGA TOUR starts this season, Johnson’s reign as world No. 1 is over – for now. JASON DUFNER – Claimed his second top-5 finish in his last three starts after a final round 68 left him T5. JORDAN SPIETH – Never really hit the heights on Sunday before finishing with a disastrous quadruple bogey eight on the 72nd hole leaving him in a tie for 41st. JUSTIN ROSE – Equaled a PLAYERS record with six straight birdies on holes 9-14 Sunday en route to a 66 and T23 finish. CHARL SCHWARTZEL – Former Masters champion made it three top-10 finishes in a row with his final round 67 and T2 result. JIMMY WALKER – His T2 result is a second top-5 finish in three starts and sends Walker to 49th in the FedExCup. XANDER SCHAUFFELE – PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year finishes T2, a third top-10 of the season, to jump to 31st in the FedExCup. ADAM SCOTT – Final round 68 leaves Scott at T11 – his best result on TOUR since June 2017. Moves back inside FedExCup top 125 at 110th. BROOKS KOEPKA – Course record 9-under 63 includes six birdies and an albatross to finish T11. Read about it here. QUOTABLES I’ve got it — I’m not that far off from winning golf tournaments.It’s nice to do it on Mother’s Day… to have her out here watching is neat.You’ll never see TPC Sawgrass play easier than it is this week.It’s hard to put it into words what this week has been like. SUPERLATIVES Low round: Course record-tying 9-under 63 by Brooks Koepka (T11), who holed a 6-iron from 208 yards to make an albatross at the par-5 16th hole. Longest drive: 356 yds (Branden Grace/No. 14) Longest putt: 44’ 4â€� (Jason Kokrak/No. 13) Toughest hole: Par-3 8th (3.197) Easiest hole: Par-5 2nd (4.394) CALL OF THE DAY SHOT OF THE DAY

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Round 4 of the Bermuda Championship takes place today. Here’s everything you need to know to follow the action. Round 4 leaderboard Round 4 tee times HOW TO FOLLOW Television: Thursday-Friday, 12:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday, 1:30-4:30pm ET, Sunday, 12:30 p.m.-3:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). PGA TOUR LIVE: None Radio: Thursday-Saturday, 11 a.m.-4:30 p.m. ET. Sunday, 10 a.m.-3:30 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com/liveaudio). NOTABLE PAIRINGS (ALL TIMES EASTERN) Russell Knox, Aaron Wise, Wes Roach Round 4: 11:18 a.m. ET (No. 1) Brian Gay, Scottie Scheffler, Ryan Armour Round 4: 11:29 a.m. ET (No. 1) Harry Higgs, Brendon Todd, Bo Hoag Round 4: 11:40 a.m. ET (No. 1) MUST READS Higgs leads entering final round Power Rankings Expert Picks The First Look: News and notes What to expect during the fall schedule Sign-up and play Fantasy Golf CALL OF THE DAY

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In the final round of the 2017 World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions in Shanghai, Justin Rose shoots a back-nine 31 for a 67 and an epic comeback victory over Dustin Johnson (77) at Sheshan International Golf Club. Meanwhile, Ryan Armour, 41, also torches the back nine for his first PGA TOUR victory, a five-shot romp at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Welcome to the Monday Finish, where both Rose and Armour proved it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. FIVE OBSERVATIONS 1.) There was some spooky, Halloween juju at work in Shanghai. First, rookie Dou “Marty� Zecheng beat Matt Kuchar in Ping-Pong. (Kuchar, who finished T31 at 1-under, would beat Zecheng by 10 on the golf course.) Then, world No. 1 Dustin Johnson fell apart at Sheshan, opening the door for Rose. By now you know that Rose, who began the final round eight shots behind, matched the third-best comeback in TOUR history. And Johnson matched the biggest collapse. But to get a sense for just how unusual Sunday was, consider that Johnson, the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking, chunked iron shots on the 14th and 15th holes. One such shot is rare enough. But two? Johnson failed to birdie the par-5 14th and bogeyed the par-4 15th. More weirdness: There was no reason for Rose’s family to stay up to watch him play for second, but they were up, anyway, and saw him finish first. Rose’s daughter, Charlotte, stirred at 3 a.m., waking up Rose’s wife, Kate, who turned the TV on just in time to catch the finish.  2.) Johnson can take inspiration from Kyle Stanley. The guess here is Johnson won’t be too distraught, given that the wind was gusting up to 25 mph and he hasn’t exactly made a habit of such finishes. But if he needs a silver lining, here it is: Before Rose, Kyle Stanley was the last player who came from eight back to win, at the 2012 Waste Management Phoenix Open, where leader Spencer Levin soared to a 75. The week before that, Stanley had lost a five-stroke lead in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open. In other words, watch out for Johnson in his next start, which would most likely come at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which he won in 2013. 3.) Rose was right: He does have time Players are often asked to reflect on their career arcs, and after losing the Masters to Sergio Garcia in a playoff last April, Rose said he felt like he would have more chances to win the Green Jacket. He is 37, but in winning his eighth TOUR title one year after winning the gold medal for England at the Rio Olympics, he’s got a nice little streak going. “All players pride themselves on winning,� Rose said, “and I’ve won every year since 2010. I was very aware that that was slipping away from me this year.� More superlatives: Rose’s performance at Sheshan was positively Nick Faldo-like, with the plot echoing the 1996 Masters: An Englishman (Rose, Faldo) shoots 67 to reel in a faltering superstar (Johnson, Greg Norman) who after spending multiple weeks at No. 1 in the world loses a six-shot lead and then some by soaring to a shocking number (77 for Johnson, 78 for Norman).   4.) Good things come to those who wait. Armour blinked back tears after picking up his first TOUR win in his 105th start. That seems like a long wait, and Armour, 41, didn’t even have a place to play as recently as 2013. “It’s a big monkey off my back,� Armour said after shooting four rounds in the 60s, after which he was permitted to kiss a chicken (or at least the Sanderson Farms trophy). His breakthrough is just the latest reminder that no sport offers more second chances than golf. Kevin Chappell won in his 180th TOUR start at the Valero Texas Open last season, a feel-good story that was nevertheless eclipsed by Sergio Garcia winning the Masters, marking his first major triumph in his 74th major start. Garcia’s stirring victory came seven months after Henrik Stenson, 40, got his first major victory in his 42nd major start at The Open. That’s a lot of late-bloomers. Perhaps there’s hope for the rest of us. 5.) It’s not how you start. It’s how you finish. Rose spun his wheels with an even-par 36 on the front before kicking into high gear with five birdies and a back-nine 31, but he was hardly the only player to see a drastic improvement after making the turn. Armour did most of his damage on the back at Sanderson Farms for the entire week. He made 17 birdies on the back, compared to 11 on the front, and drained over 273 feet of putts on the back, where he outperformed the field by +7.05 in strokes gained: putting. FIVE INSIGHTS 1. With 550 FedExCup points, Rose, with one start so far this season, moves into third in the FedExCup race, just six points behind Safeway Open champion Brendan Steele. Pat Perez, who is enjoying a late-career awakening, leads the FedExCup with 627 points. 2. Dustin Johnson’s 77 was his worst round since a final-round 82 at the 2010 U.S. Open, and marked just the seventh time in his career that he has failed to make birdie or better in a round. Still, the last time he didn’t make a birdie wasn’t that long ago: the first round of the 2017 Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. 3. Tony Finau, who led the TOUR with 50 rounds in the 60s last season, finished T11 at the WGC-HSBC, where he notched his fourth round in the 60s in three starts in 2017-’18. Armour, meanwhile, shot four rounds in the 60s in winning the Sanderson Farms at the Country Club of Jackson, the only player at either tournament to break 70 all four days. 4. Armour made 441 feet, 3 inches of putts at Sanderson Farms, 12th most by a winner in the ShotLink era. His average driving distance of 264 yards was the shortest by a Sanderson Farms winner since 2003. He laid up on 17 of 20 par 5s, which was the third-highest lay-up percentage (85%) by a winner on TOUR since 2003. Second highest was Jim Herman at the 2016 Shell Houston Open (88.2%). First highest was Ben Curtis at the 2012 Valero Texas Open (90.5%).   5. With two 41-year-old winners (Armour at Sanderson Farms, Pat Perez at the CIMB Classic) and one 37-year-old (Rose at WGC-HSBC) so far, the average age of the winners over this season’s first five events is 35.4. That’s in stark contrast to last season, when 20-somethings accounted for 28 victories (of 47 total tournaments), the most since 1970. TOP THREE VIDEOS

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